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Nike was once trading above $150. Today, it's around $34.

So here's the obvious question:

Has one of the world's most recognizable brands finally become a bargain—or is there a reason the stock has fallen this far?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're putting the charts aside for a moment and digging into Nike from a fundamental perspective.

Revenue. Earnings. Margins. Cash flow. Debt. Return on invested capital. Valuation. Growth.

We're going to tear apart the numbers and try to answer one simple question:

At what price does Nike become a legitimate value play?

Because a stock falling 50%, 60% or even 70% doesn't automatically make it cheap.

Price and value are two very different things.

Nike's latest earnings illustrate that perfectly.

The company generated $11.2 billion in quarterly revenue and remained solidly profitable. Gross margin actually improved to 42.8%, and management continues working through its turnaround strategy.

But underneath those numbers are some serious problems.

Revenue declined. Nike Direct sales dropped 8%. Nike Digital fell 13%. Footwear revenue declined. Greater China remains weak. Converse revenue plunged 28%.

And perhaps most importantly, Nike now expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage.

That's not exactly the growth story investors once paid premium multiples for.

So we're going to dig deeper.

We'll examine:

• Nike's Valuation – Is NKE actually cheap at these levels?
• Revenue Growth – Can Nike return to meaningful top-line growth?
• Profit Margins – Are margins stabilizing or is profitability still under pressure?
• EPS – What are investors actually paying for Nike's current and expected earnings?
• Cash Flow – Is the underlying business still generating enough cash to justify a long-term investment?
• ROE & ROIC – How efficiently is Nike using shareholder and invested capital?
• Debt & Liquidity – Is the balance sheet a strength or something investors should be watching?
• Nike Direct – Why weakness in Nike's direct-to-consumer business matters
• China – Can Nike fix one of its most important international markets?
• Jordan & Sportswear – Are Nike's biggest brands still commanding the same consumer demand?
• The Turnaround – Is Elliott Hill actually fixing the business?

But we're not stopping with Nike.

Because asking whether Nike is cheap isn't enough.

We need to ask:

Cheap compared to WHAT?

We'll put Nike head-to-head against competitors across the athletic footwear and apparel industry and compare the numbers.

Nike vs. Deckers. Nike vs. On. Nike vs. Lululemon. Nike vs. Adidas. Nike vs. Under Armour.

Who has the strongest margins?

Who is growing fastest?

Who has the best balance sheet?

Who generates the best returns on capital?

And perhaps most importantly...

Which company gives investors the most business for their money?

That's where fundamental analysis becomes really useful.

Nike could be the greatest brand in the group and still not be the best stock to buy.

Likewise, another company could have better growth, stronger margins, less debt and superior returns on capital—but be so expensive that Nike represents the better opportunity.

That's the battle today:

Great Company vs. Great Investment

They're not always the same thing.

Listen now:👉 Is Now the Time To Buy Nike?

We'll break down Nike's financial statements, compare it with its competitors and try to determine whether NKE around these levels represents value...or a value trap with more downside ahead.

Because sometimes the best opportunities appear when everyone hates a stock.

And sometimes everyone hates it for a very good reason.

Let's find out which one Nike is.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and tell me in the comments:

At what price would YOU buy Nike?

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#TraderMerlin #Nike #NKE #NikeStock #NikeEarnings #FundamentalAnalysis #ValueInvesting #ValueStocks #StockAnalysis #StockMarket #Deckers #DECK #HOKA #OnHolding #ONON #Lululemon #LULU #Adidas #UnderArmour #UAA #ROIC #ROE #PEratio #CashFlow #ProfitMargins #RevenueGrowth #EPS #Investing #Trading #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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Harvard has a $50+ billion endowment—but where is some of that money actually invested?

Today on TraderMerlin, we're cracking open the latest 13F filing from Harvard Management Company and taking a look inside Harvard's publicly disclosed stock portfolio.

And I have to say...

This portfolio probably isn't what most people would expect.

Harvard's latest filing reports approximately $4.26 BILLION across just 19 positions, and rather than finding an ultra-conservative portfolio dominated by boring dividend stocks, utilities and defensive investments, we find significant exposure to technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, gold and even Bitcoin.

At the top of the list?

SpaceX. Taiwan Semiconductor. Cerebras. Amazon. Alphabet. Nvidia.

That's a pretty interesting collection of names!

So today we're going to do something simple:

If Harvard handed us its portfolio and asked us to grade it...would we call it GOOD, BAD or UGLY?

We'll break down:

• Harvard's Latest 13F – What the university actually disclosed to the SEC
• The 19 Holdings – What's in the portfolio and how much Harvard has invested in each position
• SpaceX – Why Harvard's largest disclosed position immediately jumps off the page
• Semiconductors & AI – TSMC, Cerebras, Nvidia and Broadcom give Harvard some serious exposure to the AI infrastructure boom
• Big Tech – Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta remain important pieces of the portfolio
• Gold – Why Harvard owns exposure through both IAU and GLD
• Bitcoin – Harvard's exposure through BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust
• Concentration Risk – Is Harvard making smart high-conviction investments—or taking more risk than you might expect?
• Diversification – Does 19 positions really constitute a diversified portfolio?
• Valuation – Are some of these companies simply too expensive at today's prices?
• The Good, Bad & Ugly – What I like, what concerns me and what I would change

But there's an important disclaimer here.

A 13F does NOT show Harvard's entire endowment.

It reports certain securities required under SEC rules. It doesn't give us a complete picture of Harvard's private equity, venture capital, real estate, hedge funds, fixed income, cash and other investments.

So we're not grading Harvard's entire investment operation.

We're grading what Harvard chose to own in this particular disclosed portfolio.

And we're doing it on an interesting day.

The broad indexes are pushing into new all-time highs, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting records as investors continue betting on artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings.

That raises another question:

Is Harvard positioned perfectly for this market—or has its portfolio become heavily concentrated in exactly the areas that have already experienced enormous gains?

We'll look at today's market action, the strength of the major indexes and whether these new highs are supported by the underlying market—or whether traders should be getting more cautious as valuations continue climbing.

Listen now:👉 Breaking Down Harvard's Stock Portfolio

We'll open the filing, examine the positions and see whether one of the world's most famous university endowments deserves an A...or needs to go back to Investment 101.

GOOD. BAD. UGLY.

Let's grade Harvard.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and tell me in the comments:

If you could remove ONE position from Harvard's portfolio and replace it with something else, what would you choose?

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#TraderMerlin #Harvard #HarvardEndowment #HarvardPortfolio #HarvardManagementCompany #13F #SEC #StockPortfolio #SpaceX #SPCX #TSMC #Cerebras #Amazon #AMZN #Alphabet #GOOGL #Nvidia #NVDA #Microsoft #MSFT #Broadcom #AVGO #Meta #META #Bitcoin #IBIT #Gold #IAU #ArtificialIntelligence #AIStocks #Semiconductors #SP500 #Nasdaq #AllTimeHighs #StockMarket #Trading #Investing #PortfolioAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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he mailbag is full, so today YOU get to set the agenda!

On today's TraderMerlin, we're stepping away from the usual headline-driven show and diving into your questions about trading, technical analysis, risk management, cryptocurrency and market strategy.

No single theme. No predetermined market narrative.

Just your questions—and hopefully some useful answers!

One of today's topics is NEAR Protocol, a digital-asset project that's undergone a significant evolution. NEAR isn't positioning itself as simply another Layer-1 blockchain anymore. Its focus increasingly revolves around AI agents, chain abstraction and cross-chain execution, attempting to make the underlying blockchain infrastructure almost invisible to the end user.

Interesting technology.

But does interesting technology automatically make NEAR a good investment?

Not necessarily—and we'll talk about why.

We're also getting into one of my favorite subjects: stop losses.

Everyone loves talking about where to enter a trade.

Far fewer traders spend enough time thinking about the point at which the market proves their idea wrong.

Should your stop be determined by how much money you're willing to lose—or by the structure of the market itself?

That's a critical distinction.

We'll discuss:

• NEAR Protocol – What exactly is NEAR today, what problem is it trying to solve, and where does the NEAR token fit into the ecosystem?
• Stop Losses – Where should a stop actually go, and why arbitrary percentage stops can get traders into trouble
• Position Sizing – Why your stop location and position size should work together
• Trend Determination – What actually defines an uptrend, downtrend or sideways market?
• Higher Highs & Higher Lows – Why sometimes the simplest definition of trend is still the best
• Moving Averages – Useful trend tool or lagging distraction?
• Support & Resistance – How price structure can help identify where supply and demand may be changing
• Multiple Time Frames – How can something be bullish on one chart and bearish on another?
• Trade Management – When should you move your stop, take profits or simply leave the trade alone?
• Trading Psychology – Why knowing what to do and actually doing it are two very different things

And there's an important theme connecting many of these questions.

Trading isn't about knowing what happens next.

Nobody knows.

It's about building a process that tells you what you're going to do if you're right—and what you're going to do if you're wrong.

That's where trend analysis, stop losses, position sizing and risk management all come together.

If I'm bullish and price confirms my thesis, great.

If price proves me wrong, I need to know where I'm getting out before emotion enters the equation.

That's not pessimism.

That's trading.

Listen now:👉 Trading Q&A with TraderMerlin

We've got crypto, charts, stop losses, trends, risk management and plenty more from the TraderMerlin mailbag.

Have a question I didn't get to?

Drop it in the comments! It might become part of the next Trading Q&A.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and let's get into it!

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Another trading week is in the books—and September just gave us a lot to digest.

The labor market is slowing. Inflation pressures haven't disappeared. Manufacturing is still expanding. Treasury yields remain above 5%. And after the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, traders are already trying to figure out whether another one is coming.

On today's TraderMerlin, we're putting all the pieces together in another Trading Week Wrap Up!

I'll break down the biggest market headlines of the week, unveil my latest Fed Scorecard, run through the major economic data we received for September and, of course, give you updates on my own trades.

And today's jobs report just made the Fed's job considerably more interesting.

The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, while previous payroll numbers were revised lower.

That's important because we've spent much of the past few weeks worrying about an economy that might be running too hot for the Fed.

Now we're getting a different signal.

So which is it?

Is the economy finally cooling enough to stop the Fed—or is inflation still strong enough to force another rate hike anyway?

That's where my Fed Scorecard comes in.

Rather than obsessing over one headline number, we'll look at the different pieces of the economy that could influence the Fed's next decision and see whether the overall picture points toward Hike, Hold or something else entirely.

We'll discuss:

• My Latest Fed Scorecard – What the current economic data suggest about the Fed's next move
• September Jobs Report – Just 29,000 new jobs and significant downward revisions to previous months
• Labor Market – Is employment finally beginning to crack, or simply normalizing?
• September Data Roundup – The good, the bad and the confusing signals coming from the economy
• Manufacturing – Economic activity remains in expansion territory, but input prices are raising another inflation warning
• Inflation – Why the Fed still can't declare victory
• Treasury Yields – What 5%+ yields are telling us about inflation, government debt and monetary policy
• Stocks – Why weaker economic data can sometimes become good news for equities
• Market Leadership – What's actually driving the major indexes right now?
• My Trade Updates – What's working, what isn't and how I'm adjusting risk
• What's Next – The economic reports and market catalysts that could drive the next major move

And there's a fascinating contradiction developing.

Today's weak jobs report reduced expectations for an October rate hike and helped stocks rally.

Yet Treasury yields remain stubbornly high.

Meanwhile, September manufacturing data showed continued economic expansion and rising input-price pressures.

Weak employment.

Strong manufacturing.

Persistent inflation concerns.

5%+ Treasury yields.

A Fed that just raised rates.

Welcome to monetary policy in 2026.

That's why simply saying "jobs were weak, therefore the Fed won't hike" misses the bigger picture.

We need to look at the entire economic scoreboard.

And that's exactly what we're doing today.

Listen now:👉 Trading Week Wrap Up!

We'll break down the headlines, score the Fed, review September's economic data and take a look at how my own trades are progressing.

Because markets don't move on one number.

They move when all the pieces start changing the story.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

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#TraderMerlin #TradingWeekWrapUp #FederalReserve #FedScorecard #FOMC #InterestRates #RateHikes #JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #Unemployment #EconomicData #Inflation #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Manufacturing #ISM #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #DowJones #Trading #Investing #TradeUpdates #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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Crypto is changing—and the next phase may look very different from the one that got us here.

Today on TraderMerlin, I'm joined by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, for a deep dive into the current state of cryptocurrency and digital assets—and where this rapidly evolving market may be headed next.

Matt brings a particularly interesting perspective to this conversation.

Before becoming CIO of Bitwise, he was CEO of ETF.com and has spent years working at the intersection of ETFs, institutional investing and digital assets. Today, Bitwise manages billions of dollars across crypto ETFs, private funds, separately managed accounts, staking strategies and other digital-asset investment products.

In other words, Matt has a front-row seat to one of the biggest transformations taking place in financial markets:

Crypto is moving from speculation toward financial infrastructure.

We'll talk about Bitcoin and the current crypto market, but I want to go much further than simply asking where BTC goes next.

We'll discuss:

• Crypto Regulation – After the failure of the CLARITY Act, what happens next? Can the SEC and CFTC provide enough regulatory certainty without Congress?
• Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs – How ETFs have changed institutional access to crypto and what investor flows are telling us
• Institutional Adoption – Are pensions, endowments, RIAs, family offices and other major investors actually increasing their exposure?
• Tokenization – Could stocks, bonds, real estate and other traditional assets ultimately move onchain?
• Stablecoins – Are they simply digital dollars—or the foundation of an entirely new financial system?
• Wall Street Goes Onchain – What happens when traditional finance and decentralized finance begin to converge?
• Beyond Bitcoin – Where Matt sees opportunity across Ethereum, Solana, DeFi and the broader digital-asset ecosystem
• Crypto ETFs – What's next as Wall Street continues expanding the menu of regulated crypto investment products?
• The Next Crypto Cycle – Will the next major move be driven by speculation—or real-world adoption?

And this last point may be the most important.

For years, crypto investors have been waiting for "the institutions" to arrive.

But maybe we're asking the wrong question.

What happens when institutions don't simply invest in crypto—but actually begin using blockchain technology to rebuild parts of the financial system?

Tokenized securities.

24/7 markets.

Instant settlement.

Stablecoin payments.

Onchain lending.

Crypto ETFs.

Institutional DeFi.

Those aren't just different ways of trading Bitcoin.

They're potentially different ways of running financial markets.

And that's exactly what I want to explore with Matt.

Listen now:👉 Digital Asset Outlook with Matt Hougan

We'll separate the hype from what's actually happening, examine where institutional money is moving and discuss what investors should be watching as traditional finance and digital assets continue to converge.

Whether you're trading Bitcoin, investing through ETFs or simply trying to understand where the financial system is heading, this is a conversation you won't want to miss.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for Matt and the next TraderMerlin show!

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#TraderMerlin #MattHougan #Bitwise #Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #DigitalAssets #CryptoETFs #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #Tokenization #Stablecoins #Blockchain #DeFi #InstitutionalInvesting #WallStreet #OnchainFinance #CryptoRegulation #SEC #CFTC #CLARITYAct #Solana #FinancialMarkets #Trading #Investing #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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How confident is Nvidia in Nvidia? Apparently...$150 BILLION confident.

Nvidia just announced a massive $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization, bringing its remaining buyback authorization to roughly $235 billion.

That makes this one of the biggest share-buyback stories we've ever seen.

But before you automatically assume that's bullish, there's a much more interesting question:

Why does a company at the center of the AI boom believe buying its own stock is one of the best uses of its enormous cash flow?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're digging into Nvidia's announcement and what a buyback of this magnitude could mean for NVDA shareholders, earnings per share, share count and ultimately valuation.

And Nvidia isn't the only big story moving markets today.

President Trump says the administration is "very seriously" considering restrictions on U.S. diesel exports as diesel prices remain painfully high.

At first glance, the logic seems simple:

Stop exporting diesel → keep more supply in America → diesel prices fall.

But markets are rarely that simple.

Restricting exports could alter refinery economics, potentially reduce refinery runs and change the supply dynamics for gasoline, jet fuel and crude oil. In other words, a policy designed to lower one fuel price could create unintended consequences somewhere else.

We'll break down:

• Nvidia's $150 Billion Buyback – Why Nvidia is making such an enormous commitment to repurchasing shares
• $235 Billion Remaining – What the total authorization could mean for NVDA's share count and EPS
• AI Competition – Is the buyback simply confidence—or does Nvidia see its own stock as particularly attractive?
• Diesel Export Ban? – What Trump is considering and why the consequences could be more complicated than they appear
• Oil & Inflation – How higher energy prices could keep inflation pressures alive
• Gold Troubles – Why gold is getting crushed despite geopolitical uncertainty
• Treasury Yields – Why the 10-year pushing above 5% matters for virtually every asset class
• The Federal Reserve – Why rising oil and persistent inflation are increasing expectations for additional rate hikes
• Stocks – What higher yields mean for equity valuations, particularly expensive technology companies
• Trading Opportunities – Where volatility may create opportunities across stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies

And gold may be one of the most interesting stories of the day.

Gold is supposed to be an inflation hedge and a safe haven.

We have geopolitical uncertainty.

We have rising oil prices.

We have inflation concerns.

And gold is still getting hammered.

Why?

Because higher inflation expectations are pushing markets toward the possibility of additional Fed tightening. That pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher, increasing the opportunity cost of owning an asset that pays no interest.

It's another reminder that markets don't trade on simple narratives.

They trade on relationships.

Oil rises → inflation concerns rise → rate-hike expectations rise → Treasury yields rise → the dollar strengthens → gold comes under pressure.

Meanwhile, those same higher yields create another valuation hurdle for the stock market.

So yes, Nvidia's $150 billion buyback is the headline.

But underneath it is a much bigger market story involving AI, energy, inflation, interest rates, bonds, gold and equities.

Listen now:👉 Nvidia Massive Share Buyback!

There's a lot moving today.

Let's connect the dots.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

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#TraderMerlin #Nvidia #NVDA #ShareBuyback #StockBuyback #ArtificialIntelligence #AIStocks #Semiconductors #Diesel #Oil #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #Gold #GoldPrice #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FOMC #RateHikes #Inflation #InterestRates #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #Trading #Investing #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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Another week in the books—and there was definitely no shortage of market-moving headlines.

Interest rates are moving higher. Treasury yields are hitting levels we haven't seen in years. Economic data continues to challenge the idea that the economy is slowing dramatically. Tesla has fresh news out of Europe. And after all the anticipation surrounding the Trump-Xi meeting, the United States and China have bought themselves a little more time with another extension of their trade truce.

So what actually matters to traders?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're cutting through the noise and breaking down the biggest stories of the week, what they mean for the markets and, of course, updating some of my own trades along the way.

Perhaps the biggest story remains interest rates.

The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, and Fed officials are projecting another hike before the end of the year. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have continued pushing higher, with the long end of the curve reaching levels we haven't seen in decades.

That's important because higher yields ripple through virtually everything—mortgages, corporate borrowing, consumer credit, stock valuations and ultimately the economy.

And the economic data isn't necessarily giving the Fed a reason to back away.

Initial jobless claims remain historically low, business investment has remained resilient and inflation continues to be the wild card.

What happens if the economy stays strong enough that the Fed has to keep tightening?

That's one of the big questions hanging over this market.

We'll also dig into Tesla, where European regulators have delayed a broader decision on Tesla's supervised Full Self-Driving system. For a company increasingly valued not simply as an automaker but as an AI, robotics and autonomous-driving story, regulatory approval matters.

Then there's China.

After months of tariffs, threats and negotiations, President Trump and President Xi met in Washington this week. The result was another two-month extension of the U.S.-China trade truce, pushing the deadline to January 10.

That's good news in the sense that another escalation has been avoided—for now.

But many of the biggest issues remain unresolved.

We'll discuss:

• Interest Rates – Why Treasury yields continue pushing higher
• The Federal Reserve – Is another rate hike coming before year-end?
• Economic Data – What the latest numbers tell us about the strength of the U.S. economy
• Inflation – Why it remains the key variable for markets and monetary policy
• Tesla – The latest FSD news and what it could mean for the bigger Tesla story
• U.S.–China Trade – What actually came out of the Trump-Xi summit
• The China Truce – Progress toward a real deal—or simply kicking the can down the road?
• Stocks & Bonds – What rising yields mean for equity valuations
• My Trades – Updates on my current positions, what's working, what isn't and where I'm managing risk
• Next Week – The major economic reports and market catalysts traders should have on their radar

There are plenty of individual headlines this week.

But underneath them is one much bigger question:

Can this market continue pushing higher if interest rates and bond yields keep moving higher with it?

That's the battle I'm watching.

Because headlines come and go.

Price, risk and opportunity are what ultimately matter.

Listen now:👉 Trading Week Wrap Up

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

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#TraderMerlin #TradingWeekWrapUp #StockMarket #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #Inflation #EconomicData #Tesla #TSLA #ElonMusk #FSD #China #Trump #XiJinping #USChinaTrade #Tariffs #TradeWar #SP500 #Nasdaq #DowJones #Trading #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #TradeUpdates #FinancialEducation

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We've seen this movie before...or have we?

A viewer recently sent me an interesting comparison between the 2022 stock-market top and what we're seeing in the market today.

At first glance, there are some similarities that are difficult to ignore.

Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run. Valuations are elevated. Inflation is creating problems again. Treasury yields are surging. And perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates again.

Sound familiar?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're pulling up the charts and putting 2022 vs. 2026 side by side.

Not because history has to repeat itself—but because understanding what caused the 2022 bear market can help us identify which warning signs actually matter today.

Remember what happened in 2022.

The Federal Reserve began raising rates in March and ultimately delivered an extraordinary 425 basis points of tightening during the year. Bond yields surged, liquidity tightened, valuations compressed and the S&P 500 eventually fell roughly 25% from its peak, while many technology and speculative-growth stocks suffered significantly larger declines.

Now fast-forward to today.

The Fed has begun another tightening cycle. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, borrowing costs are rising, inflation pressures remain a concern and markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of additional rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the major indexes remain relatively close to record territory.

So...

Are we watching the early stages of another 2022—or are traders making the classic mistake of forcing today's chart to fit yesterday's story?

That's the question we're tackling today.

We'll discuss:

• 2022 vs. 2026 – What the two market environments actually have in common
• The Federal Reserve – Why the speed and magnitude of rate hikes matter more than simply saying "rates are going up"
• Treasury Yields – What the move above 5% could mean for equity valuations
• Inflation – The common denominator behind both tightening cycles
• Market Structure – Are today's indexes showing the same deterioration we saw around the 2022 top?
• Technology & AI – Could today's highly valued growth leaders face the same valuation compression that crushed tech in 2022?
• Market Concentration – What happens when a relatively small group of enormous companies drives index performance?
• Technical Analysis – What price, momentum, support and resistance are actually telling us
• Risk Management – What traders can learn from 2022 without blindly assuming history will repeat itself

And there's an important distinction here.

Similar charts don't necessarily produce similar outcomes.

In 2022, the Fed was launching one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in decades. Today's tightening cycle has only just begun, corporate earnings remain an important support for equities, and we don't yet know how far the Fed will ultimately have to go.

That's why the question isn't:

"Is this exactly 2022?"

It's:

"Which conditions made 2022 so destructive—and how many of those conditions are beginning to appear again?"

Because if enough pieces start falling into place, traders shouldn't need a 25% decline to tell them something has changed.

Listen now:👉 Market Top Like 2022?

We'll compare the charts, examine the macro backdrop and separate legitimate warning signs from superficial similarities.

History doesn't have to repeat.

But when it starts to rhyme, it's probably worth listening.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

🔖 Tags

#TraderMerlin #MarketTop #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #2022Crash #MarketCorrection #BearMarket #FederalReserve #FOMC #RateHikes #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #Inflation #AIStocks #TechStocks #Magnificent7 #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketHistory #RiskManagement #Trading #Investing #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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The bond market is flashing another warning—and stocks are starting to pay attention.

Treasury yields surged again today, with the 10-year yield climbing above 5.1% to its highest level since 2007, while shorter-term yields also pushed higher as traders increased their expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

On today's TraderMerlin, we're digging into the bond selloff and asking a critical question:

How high can yields go before something in the broader market starts to break?

Just one week after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in more than three years, the bond market appears to be saying the Fed may not be finished.

Inflation remains elevated. Economic activity has remained surprisingly resilient. Oil prices are back above $100. And today's strong business-activity data added another reason for traders to reconsider how aggressive the Fed may need to be.

That combination is pushing yields higher—and creating another major headwind for equities.

Why?

Because Treasury yields don't exist in a vacuum.

Higher yields mean higher mortgage rates, higher corporate borrowing costs, more expensive consumer credit and a higher discount rate on future corporate earnings. They also give investors a more attractive alternative to stocks.

That's particularly important for expensive growth and technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on earnings expected years into the future.

We'll break down:

• The Bond Selloff – Why Treasury prices are falling and yields are surging
• 10-Year Treasury – What a move above 5% means for financial markets
• The Federal Reserve – Why markets are increasingly pricing additional rate hikes
• Inflation – How persistent price pressures are changing the interest-rate outlook
• Oil – Why $100+ crude could complicate the Fed's inflation fight
• Stocks – Why rising yields create pressure on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
• Technology – Why high-valuation growth stocks can be particularly sensitive to higher rates
• Mortgages & Housing – How rising Treasury yields filter through to consumers
• The Yield Curve – What the movement in short- versus long-term rates is telling us
• Trading Opportunities – Where risk—and opportunity—may emerge if rates remain higher for longer

The Federal Reserve controls the overnight Fed Funds rate.

The bond market controls a much bigger part of the financial system.

And right now, the bond market is sending a message:

Rates may be staying higher for longer—and perhaps going higher still.

The question isn't simply whether the Fed hikes again.

It's whether financial markets are properly priced for what happens if they do.

Listen now:👉 Bond Trouble!

Inside the episode:

• Treasury yields
• 10-year and 30-year bonds
• Federal Reserve rate hikes
• Inflation
• Oil prices
• Interest-rate expectations
• Stock-market pressure
• Technology valuations
• Mortgage rates
• Yield curve
• Trading opportunities

When bonds start moving like this, traders need to pay attention.

Because sometimes the biggest warning for the stock market...

comes from the bond market first.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

🔖 Tags

#TraderMerlin #BondTrouble #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #30YearYield #FederalReserve #FOMC #RateHikes #InterestRates #Inflation #OilPrices #CrudeOil #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #TechStocks #MortgageRates #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #Trading #Investing #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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Greenland isn't becoming the 51st state—but something very significant just changed in the Arctic.

President Trump announced a new agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland that would dramatically expand America's long-term security role on the world's largest island.

Trump says the agreement gives the United States "permanent control" over Greenland's security, while Denmark and Greenland maintain that Greenland remains sovereign and the agreement strengthens NATO's broader role in defending the Arctic.

So what exactly did the United States get?

And perhaps more importantly for investors...

Where is the opportunity?

On today's TraderMerlin, we're breaking down the new Greenland agreement and looking beyond the political headlines at the enormous strategic and economic importance of the Arctic.

Greenland sits in an increasingly important position between North America, Europe and Russia. It's critical for missile detection, space surveillance, North Atlantic defense and the rapidly changing Arctic shipping environment.

But underneath all that ice is another major part of this story:

Critical minerals.

Rare earths, graphite, zinc, uranium and other strategic resources have made Greenland increasingly important as the United States and Europe attempt to reduce their dependence on China for materials essential to semiconductors, artificial intelligence, batteries, defense systems and advanced manufacturing.

And Wall Street is already paying attention.

We'll discuss:

• The Greenland Deal – What Trump announced and what we actually know so far
• "Permanent Control?" – What the agreement appears to give the United States—and what it doesn't
• NATO & Arctic Security – Why Greenland matters in the strategic competition involving Russia and China
• Pituffik Space Base – Why America's existing military presence is so important
• Critical Minerals – Greenland's potentially enormous rare-earth and strategic-resource deposits
• China – Why reducing dependence on Chinese mineral processing has become a national-security priority
• Mining Stocks – Why Greenland-related rare-earth companies are suddenly attracting investor attention
• Infrastructure – Ports, airports, energy, construction and logistics could become part of the investment story
• The Opportunity – Which sectors could benefit if Western investment into Greenland accelerates?

And this may ultimately be the most important part of the story.

What if Greenland isn't really about acquiring land? What if it's about controlling strategic access to the Arctic for the next 50 years?

The Arctic is becoming increasingly important economically, militarily and geopolitically.

And when governments begin committing money, infrastructure and military resources to a region, markets usually aren't far behind.

Listen now:👉 United State of Greenland?!

Inside the episode:

• Trump & Greenland
• U.S.–Denmark–Greenland security agreement
• NATO and Arctic security
• Russia & China
• Critical minerals and rare earths
• Mining opportunities
• Arctic infrastructure
• Defense and aerospace
• Supply-chain security
• Potential investment opportunities

Greenland may never become part of the United States.

But it could become far more important to the United States—and to investors.

Hit Like, Subscribe, and send in your questions for the next TraderMerlin show!

🔖 Tags

#TraderMerlin #Greenland #Trump #Arctic #NATO #Denmark #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #CriticalMinerals #RareEarths #MiningStocks #China #Russia #Pituffik #DefenseStocks #ArcticSecurity #SupplyChain #Commodities #Investing #Trading #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis #FinancialEducation

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