TransUnion: Extra Credit

DJ Cox joins this month, flipping the script on Craig and Josh with the most-asked questions he’s hearing within the credit and lending space.

As they reflect on 2025 so far, Josh highlights signs of recovery in card originations and improving delinquency trends. And Craig adds a macro perspective, describing consumers as “cautiously stable” amid mixed economic signals.

Looking ahead, the conversation turns to key risks and opportunities — from tariff uncertainty and returning student loan payments to lenders shifting toward more selective growth strategies. They also examine trends in credit lines and balances, pointing to stable utilization and signs of disciplined behavior among consumers.

The episode wraps with an assessment of the shrinking private label card market and why it still matters, even against rising competition like buy now, pay later services.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

In this special episode, recorded live from TransUnion's annual Financial Services Summit in Chicago, hosts Craig and Josh are joined by Paul Gruenwald, Chief Global Economist at S&P Global Ratings.

The conversation kicks off with an in-depth exploration of the economic impacts of tariffs, financial implications of tightening federal spending, and why tracking the labor market is key to predicting a recession. Paul then shares his take on the future of the US labor market, including the potential for increased domestic manufacturing, and discusses implications of AI.

Shifting gears to global trade, they consider the connections between savings, investments and net exports, and assess the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

Finally, they examine significant investments in renewable energy projects and macroeconomic impacts of moving away from a fossil fuel-based economy.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

TransUnion Sales VP Brad Deja is in the studio this month to talk shop!

Josh starts by highlighting signs of a stabilizing market, including a slower decline in loan originations and the return of prime and below prime card issuance to pre-pandemic levels.

Brad inquires about market expectations for Q1, noting a number of consumers are still struggling with inflation. Craig explains why he believes consumer credit health is evening out despite these challenges.

When asked about the continued decline in originations, Josh attributes this to issuers’ caution — while also pointing out positive demand signs in higher credit tiers.

The conversation then shifts to current trends in card balances and utilization; Brad wonders whether delinquencies have peaked yet; and finally, Craig notes the most pertinent fraud challenges facing lenders today.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

Jason Laky, Executive Vice President of Financial Services at TransUnion, returns for the first time since June 2022! Things kick off with a review of past predictions, including a recession forecast and an assessment of the current consumer credit market. Jason is optimistic about stable interest rates and potential regulatory improvements benefiting financial services.

Josh and Jason discuss 2024 lender impacts across mortgage, auto, credit card and FinTech sectors, with a look at the state of consumer financial health. Jason considers whether consumers will adapt to current interest rates to enter the housing market.

Craig and Jason address fraud sophistication and the need for financial institutions to implement better fraud mitigation strategies. They also explore potential disruptions in consumer lending, with Jason predicting generative AI will enhance financial services through improved personalization and efficiency.

Finally, Craig inquires about student loan payments resuming, and the future of mergers and acquisitions in a challenging cost environment.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

TransUnion Sales VP Danielle Parry-Hill joins the podcast this month to discuss the state of the card market and growing concerns around fraud.

Danielle and Josh kick things off by noting while originations are down, charge-offs, delinquencies and card utilization are rising. Danielle raises a key question from CFIs: Have delinquencies peaked? Craig advises issuers to adjust their risk strategies accordingly.

Danielle points out CFIs are now facing significant fraud challenges, including bots testing identities. Josh highlights the surge in early default losses on credit cards and growing difficulty in managing fraud due to synthetic identities and first-party fraud.

Craig shifts the focus to bankruptcy, noting while rates are low, increased debt settlements might be hiding underlying risks — and lastly, explains why private label cards have become riskier than bankcards.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

With Steve Manion joining the podcast this month, the conversation kicks off with a year-over-year review of consumer card usage. Josh examines shifts in bankcard balance and origination growth; Craig reveals which consumers are taking on far less new debt; and Steve wants to know how current charge-off balances compare to pre-COVID levels.

Steve and Craig then discuss how lenders are leveraging technology to enhance marketing and speed to market. Josh emphasizes the need for lenders to diversify their consumer engagement tactics, ensuring relevant offers at every touchpoint and channel, and delivering personalized experiences efficiently.

Craig details the ‘strategic imperatives’ for issuers in 2024 — including efficiency in marketing, evolving fraud threats, changing regulatory environments and the role of artificial intelligence — and Steve asks if higher fraud rates are being observed in certain channels compared to others.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

Part Two: Live From TransUnion’s 2024 Financial Services Summit, Las Vegas

In part two of the 2024 FS Summit episode, TransUnion’s Sean Flynn sits down with Union Credit co-founder and CRO Barry Kirby to highlight some key challenges facing credit unions today.

Sean and Barry start by discussing the contradiction credit unions are running into as they balance growing their young member bases with needing more deposits due to liquidity constraints.

Barry shares the widening average age gap between credit union members (57) and US consumers (37), and describes why educating younger generations on the benefits of credit unions is critical for the health of the entire banking system.

Sean notes how Barry’s company helps community banks automate and scale in new ways, leading him to wonder what kind of fraud Barry is seeing these days and how credit unions are responding.

Finally, Barry looks back on 25 years as an entrepreneur in the community banking space to offer advice for those pursuing a similar path.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

Part One: Live From TransUnion’s 2024 Financial Services Summit, Las Vegas

In part one of the 2024 FS Summit episode, credit union VPs Heather Dufourny (Service Credit Union) and Heather Sullivan (Randolph-Brooks Federal Credit Union) sit down with Craig and Josh in Las Vegas to discuss the goings-on in the credit union industry.

Craig is curious to hear which products members are most interested in, and wonders how Dufourny’s and Sullivan’s credit unions are responding to the financial squeeze many members are experiencing.

Dufourny and Sullivan share how each of their organizations are utilizing this slow period — from preparing for an eventual refinance boom to diversifying portfolios — and agree balancing a seamless member experience with the need for increased fraud controls has been a challenge within the industry.

Josh wraps things up by asking which key elements they’re focusing on to draw in a younger demographic, and is keen to know how a credit union decides when to bring in new technology or systems.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

Guest FJ Guarrera puts Craig and Josh in the hot seat this month with questions around recent consumer performance, trends and preferences in the card industry.

The conversation kicks off with a macroeconomic view of the market since last quarter — ranging from consumer sentiments to card balances and originations to the impact consumer stress levels are having on their financial health.

FJ asks how issuers should be responding to elevated risk in the marketplace, and Josh shares strategies lenders might consider to alleviate some of that pressure.

Craig shares an update on the private label market; Josh weighs in on when migrating scores may start to normalize; and the conversation ultimately shifts to what issuers can be doing to better understand Gen Z preferences and behaviors — particularly given market dynamics over the last few years.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.

Matt Spiegel and Patrick White join the podcast this month to discuss the ongoing transformation of marketing strategies and operations.

Josh kicks things off by remarking on the lack of financial advertising in this year’s Super Bowl; Matt discusses how financial services marketers should be connecting brand and performance data for more precise results; and Craig and Patrick discuss the opportunity costs of disconnected datasets, including deterministic versus probabilistic data matching.

Plus, Josh details some surprising marketing solicitations he’s received from his bank; Patrick describes three things lenders can focus on to ensure they’re maximizing their customer insights; and Matt shares marketing tactics financial organizations should consider that can be achieved on any budget.

The information discussed in this podcast constitutes the opinion of TransUnion, and TransUnion shall have no liablity for any actions taken based upon the content of this podcast.