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🚢 Trump’s China-Linked Ship Fees Impact US Agriculture 

President Trump is drafting an executive order to impose fees of up to $1.5 million on China-built ships docking at U.S. ports. While the move aims to boost domestic shipbuilding, it has caused uncertainty for agricultural exports. 🌾 Exporters of corn, soybeans, and wheat are struggling to secure transportation beyond May due to unclear final costs. The Farm Bureau warns that bulk agricultural exporters could face an extra $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation fees. 

🇨🇳 China Lowers Soybean Import Forecast 

The USDA’s China attaché office has reduced its forecast for Chinese soybean imports to 106mmt this season, a 2% drop from last year. 📉 Economic challenges and shifting consumer preferences toward poultry and seafood over pork are driving the decline. Additionally, China’s soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.1% to 19.8mmt due to low market prices. The Chinese government continues to support domestic soybean production through subsidies to reduce reliance on imports. 

⚡ Zelenskiy and Trump Agree to Halt Energy Strikes 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has agreed to a mutual halt on energy facility strikes following a call with President Trump. 📞 This marks a shift in tone after their tense Oval Office exchange weeks prior. Trump pledged fresh support for Ukraine, including potential air defense systems. Meanwhile, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to pause attacks on energy sites. However, Putin insists that any broader ceasefire must include stopping weapons and intelligence aid to Ukraine and allowing Russia to keep occupied land. 

🇧🇷 Brazil Cuts Soybean Production Forecast 

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries has lowered its soybean production estimate to 170.9mmt, down slightly from 171.7mmt. 🌱 Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, estimates 167.4mmt, while the USDA projects 169mmt. Private group AgRural reports that 70% of the harvest is complete. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean oil exports are expected to increase by 27% to 1.4mmt due to weaker domestic demand. 

⛽ US Ethanol Production Remains Strong 

US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 4% from the previous week and 5.6% higher than the same time last year. 📊 Ethanol stocks were at 26.6 million barrels, down 2.9% from the previous week but up 2.2% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week-over-week but remained slightly higher than last year’s levels. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has been relatively stable compared to last year. 

💰 Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady 

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 4.3% on Wednesday as it continues assessing the economic impact of Trump’s policies. 🏦 Eleven of nineteen policymakers expect at least two rate cuts this year. Due to proposed tariffs, the Fed raised its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.7%, up from 2.5%. However, inflation is expected to decline in 2026-2027. The Fed also revised its GDP growth projection for 2025 to 1.7%, down from its December estimate of 2.1%, citing economic uncertainty driven by tariffs, deregulation, and energy policies.