Tomorrow the war in Ukraine will enter its third year. Kyiv’s counteroffensive has proved much less successful than the Ukrainian government had hoped. And as Western support threatens to dry up, Ukraine’s setbacks are mounting. Last weekend, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to admit that the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region had fallen to the Russians, which he blamed on a lack of ammunition and, by implication, on a lack of Western support.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Gustav Gressel and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro, who also heads our new US programme, to understand which factors will determine the course of the war in the coming year. Who does the current status quo most benefit? Could Ukraine’s recent setbacks and Navalny’s death encourage more Western support for Kyiv? And what impact will elections in Europe and the US have?

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher Andrew

Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev

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