The dynamics of the US gas market about to change

US oil production grew roughly 1mm barrels per day in 2023 and while US production growth may be slowing, it's growing elsewhere including in Guyana and Brazil. Such growth outside of Saudi threatens their market share, and that could mean even more supply as Saudi looks to take that share back. That all makes for a tough backdrop for the oil price and oil-levered equities, but the situation is more positive for equities levered to US gas. Significantly more LNG exports are expected to come online over the next 4-6 years, boosting demand for natural gas and reflecting positively for gas equities. Higher exports will require a higher clearing price to incentivize production, which is why the gas curve is upward sloping, a different picture than oil. Doug Leggate joins to discuss what all of this means for US E&P companies, how more M&A in the sector will lower costs for producers, and how the correlation of population growth will play a role in oil demand over the next decade.

 

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