Volatility Views

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade war premium came and want, and now seems to be sticking.

SPIKES - 14.50, down 1.25-points from last show

VIX Cash - 14.65, down 1-point from last week

VVIX - 81, down 3.5-points from last show

VIX Options - ADV: 482k, down 200k from last show, Total 5.62m (4.35m Calls, 1.27m Puts)

VXX - 26, 1.7-points lower than last show

Earnings:

Tuesday - Adobe

Wednesday - Oracle, Barnes & Noble

Thursday - Kroger, Darden Restaurants (Yard House, Capital Grill, Seasons 52, Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden)

Friday - Carmax

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

#QuestionoftheWeek: Let's play a guessing game. Which of the following names has the highest 30-day REALIZED volatility? No cheating. What does your gut tell you? $TSLA #BITCOIN #CRUDEOIL #NASDAQ $QQQ #WTI

- $TSLA

- #BITCOIN

- #WTI #CRUDE OIL

- $QQQ

Question from Lint37 - Do you think the spikes futures will trade similar to the vix futures when they are listed?

Question from Mrs T -

CRYSTAL BALL

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade war premium back and forth.

SPIKES - 15.65, down 0.35 from last show

VIX Cash - 15.65, down 0.35 from last week

VVIX - 84.5, unchanged from last show

VIX Options - ADV: 482k, Total 8.04m (6.01m Calls, 2.03m Puts)

VXX - 27.67, slightly lower than last show

Earnings:

Tuesday - Dave & Busters

Wednesday - Lululemon

Thursday - Broadcom

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

Question from Elliot - Looks like BTC is getting very volatile again. What are you seeing out there right now?\

Question from GLN09 - Is there a bitcoin vix?

Question from Waterson - Can you explain more about the price dragging method in SPIKES. How exactly does that prevent what happened to the VIX from happening in spikes? Great show guys.

Comment from Pyon - ASo the judge ruled that CBOE didn't manipulate their product but they created a product that was susceptible to manipulation. Do you think this is the end of the lawsuits? In some way isn't that outcome even worse since they never fixed this thing until the lawyers came knocking? Just look at all the steps that SPIKES takes to avoid these same types of problems. Is it out of the question to expect CBOE to have taken similar steps or were they too afraid of hurting their golden goose product?

CRYSTAL BALL

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Guest: John Smollen - Executive Vice President, Head of Exchange Traded Products and Strategic Relations - MIAX

Trade war premium came and went… and came back again… then went again.

SPIKES - 16, down 2.5-points from last show

VIX CASH - 16, 2.5-points lower from last week VVIX - 84.5, 10-points lower than last show

VIX Options - ADV: 679k, Total 7.51M

Earnings volatility this week

Monday - box

Tuesday - GameStop, salesforce

Wednesday - Stitch Fix, Campbell Soup Company, Vera Bradley, ABM

Thursday - Beyond Meat, ciena

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

#Options #QuestionoftheWeek: #Bitcoin $BTC is hovering around $8500 right now. If you had to make a 1-month #options trade expiring 6/31 - would you rather…

Quite the range since the last show - broke through $8000 on the downside now back to $8071

29% - Buy $9000 Call

35% - Buy $8000 Put

31% - Sell $8000 Put

5% - Other, reply/dm w/strat

Question from Elliot - Looks like BTC is getting very volatile again. What are you seeing out there right now?\ Question from GLN09 - Is there a bitcoin vix? 5-Star review from East Wave - Extremely insightful information delivered by a very knowledgable (and affable) group with great guests on frequent episodes. Great job guys! (miss Don Schlesinger).

Question from DElement - I thought the major obstacle for the approval of new vol products was the lack of an underlying future or ETF. That seems to be the case with the nasdaq volatility products. How were the MIAX team able to get their spikes product approved by the sec without an underlying? Is that normal practice?

Question from The Mic - Can you ask the MIAX team if there are any plans for ETPs on spikes similar to VXX or SVXY? Thank you very much for your program.

CRYSTAL BALL

VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT

Guests: Jimmy Heinz - Equity Volatility Trader, Gelber Group & Brendan Carter, Equity Volatility Trader, Gelber Group

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade war - Trump decided China wasn't enough and picked a new trade war with Mexico

SPIKES - 18.5, up 2-points from last show.

VIX Cash - 18.5, 2.25-points higher than last week.

VVIX - 94.5, 2.5-points higher than last show

VIX Options - ADV: 708K

VXX - 30.5, 2.5-points higher than last week

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

Question from Cap Wulf - Looks like the dark days of VIX are finally over? Thoughts on the outcome? Do you agree with the judges decision?

Question from Michael Paige - I've heard your discussions about inverse volatility products and how we probably won't see another one anytime soon. I find myself wondering how you could even construct one of those products int he modern era that would pass regulatory muster? All of them have an embedded function that they can effectively blow out at anytime. How can any provider offer this product without also having to carry so much upside protection that it becomes far too expensive to list. But I don't see regulators allowing anything past them that has an embedded "acceleration event" in their prospectus again.

CRYSTAL BALL

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade war premium came and went… and then came back again!

SPIKES - 16.5, up 0.75 from last show

VIX Cash - 16.25, up 0.75 from last week

VVIX - 92, 3-points lower than last show

VIX Options - ADV: 708k, Total 6.62m (4.97m Calls, 1.65m Puts)

VXX - 28, unchanged from last show

CRYSTAL BALL

Next week:

Mark L. - 14.75

Mark S. - 14.10

Matt - 13.25

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade war premium came and went.

SPIKES - 15.75, down 4.25-points from last show

VIX Cash - 15.5, 4-points lower than last week

VVIX - 95, 8-points lower than last show

VIX Options - ADV: 668k, Total 10.2m (7.42m Calls, 2.73m Puts)

VXX - 28, 2-points lower than last show

Earnings Highlights:

Thursday - Walmart, Nvidia, Pinterest

Friday - John Deere

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

Comment from J3Dingle - I saw on Bloomberg that one of the 20+ Democrats running for president owes UVXY in size in his portfolio. That alone should be a disqualifying factor.

Question from T Lima - Heard you guys hitting on 1x2 put spreads in vix. What about VXX? There are lots of juicy puts 1x2s lining up for small outlays and maybe even credits. I'm looking at Dec 28-23 1x2 that I can do for around $.45-$.65. There are similar spreads lining up across the term structure. Also - Do you have a preference to longer term or shorter term when trading 1x2 put spreads in these products?

CRYSTAL BALL

Next week:

MARK: 14.75

Andrew - 14.25

Dave - 16.00

VOLATILITY REVIEW

Trade was premium is back as Trump continues to ratchet up the tariffs.

SPIKES - 20, up 7-points from last show

VIX Cash - 19.5., 7-points higher than last week

VVIX - 103, almost 20-points higher than last show

VIX Options - ADV: 459k, very low.

VXXB - 30.3, 5-points higher than last week, ADV: 167k

SPIKES Versus VIX: How to Take Advantage of the Differences - https://www.investorsalley.com/spikes-versus-vix-how-to-take-advantage-of-the-differences-article-jay/

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

Question from Super Dragon - Is the $VIX curve inverting as bad as the yield curve inverting?

Question from Anthony Johnston - I've heard you guys call otm puts bullets before? Where does this come from and why are they called that?

CRYSTAL BALL

Next week:

Mark L. - 13.25

Mark S. - 14.06

VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT

Guest: John Smollen, EVP, Head of Exchange Traded Products and Strategic Relations, MIAX

Guest: Simon Ho, CEO, T3 Index

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

Comment from Allegheny Lad - Cheers to the listener who said they hedge their VXXB downside with alcohol. I feel their pain and I raise my glass in solidarity. I find a nice Jameson on the rocks seems to "hedge" most effectively - but ymmv. Thanks for your fine program.

Question from Charlie C - Quick question for the show - What's the weirdest thing you've seen in the options market?

Question from Miller - Hello Volatility Views! Love this show. Is there some sort of volatility summit where the different players in the space get together to discuss the issues in the market, how to address them and what's coming down the road?

VOLATILITY REVIEW

SPIKES - 13, up 0.75-point from last show.

VIX Cash - 12.75, up 0.5-points higher than last week.

VVIX - 84, 1-point lower than last show

VIX Options: Friday - 148, ADV - 459k, Total 7.41m (6.19m Calls, 1.22m Puts)

VXXB - 25.3, 1.3-points lower than last show.

Earnings Highlights:

Tuesday - Twitter, Snap

Wednesday - FB, Tesla, Microsoft, Boeing, Chipotle, PayPal, WWE

Thursday - Amazon, Starbucks, Intel, Grubhub, Mattel

VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL

#Options #QOTW: $TSLA open interest continues to be dominated by far #OTM "Mystery Puts." The lion's share of the OI is at the 100 strike and below. There are many reasons for this. But it leads to a simple question - do you think $TSLA be below $100 by Jan expiration?

• - Yes
• - No

Question from Vivic 3 - Now that spikes is live what is the status of the other vol newcomers that have appeared on your show like Voldex and Volx?

Question from Benson H - Is there any clear winner for earnings season right now for a volatility trader? Is it short vol or long vol that's winning the day right now?

CRYSTAL BALL

Two weeks ago:

Mark L. - 13.25

Mark S. - 12.37

Next week:

Mark L. - 12.75

Mark S. - 12.37

Volatility Review: Brexit, Brexit, Brexit!!!

Weekly Options Insider Poll - Do you think the UK will make a Brexit from the EU?

• Yah - 24%
• Nah - 43%
• I am sick of Brexit - 33%

Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Tronghi: Detailed thoughts on VIX futures curve as of June 15.

• Question from JVon: What strategies don't work for the short VIX ratio call spread.
• Question from BB Wins: Can you give me an example of good strikes for a VIX 1-by-2 ratio spread if I use open interest as an indicator?

Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close before the long holiday weekend?

• Russell: 12
• Mark S.: 26
• Mark L.: 21