WanderLearn: Travel to Transform Your Mind & Life

Before getting into my 2022 predictions, I review my 2021. Find out which of my six 2021 predictions was totally wrong.

At the start, I talk about my $40,000 bitcoin prediction (but I don't mention bitcoin), so sorry for the confusion. Bad editing.

2022 Predictions

As usual, I avoid unquantifiable predictions. For example, these are all vague predictions for 2022:

• Emerging COVID-19 variants will jeopardize our return to normalcy


• Interest rate hikes wreak havoc in our debt-heavy world


• The global supply chain continues to strain due to unforeseen events and sky-high costs


• Geopolitical tensions cause jitters in the global markets

If you can't measure it, it can be hard to definitely say if you're right or wrong.

Here we go.

Watch it on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9o-G-Ku-HQ 

Timestamps

00:00 How my Six 2021 Predictions Fared
05:10 Bitcoin $75k
06:20 Inflation = 10%
06:40 Fed Funds Rate 1%
07:00 Stocks down 5%
07:50 Webb works!
08:05 No Flippening
08:30 ETH $5k
09:30 Plan B makes Plan C

1. Bitcoin ends 2022 at $75,000. 

Four years ago, I began making annual predictions on bitcoin's price. I've been correct every time; twice within a couple of percentage points.

In 2022, I'll make a video that explains my prediction methodology. 

I'll be the first one to admit that luck is a huge factor. I know that one day I will be spectacularly wrong. I'm surprised that I have lasted 4 years and not been horribly wrong. Maybe my luck will run out in 2022.

I'm predicting that bitcoin will be at $75,000 on December 31, 2022. 

Bitcoin's price will be volatile, as usual.  I predict that BTC's price will trade between $40,000 and $140,000, although I would not be surprised if it does not crack $100,000 like everyone expects it will. And if it does, it won't stay up above $100,000 for months.

I predict a BTC Spot ETF will become available in the USA. It will cause a parabolic rally and a few weeks later, it will deflate.

Increased interest rates will make people sell BTC for two reasons.

1. They will flock to less risky assets.

2. The DXY (USD Index) will increase when interests rates increase, and that's usually bad for BTC.

2. Inflation will reach 10%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation. As flawed as it is, it's the "official" inflation number. At the end of 2021, it's about 6%.

I predict that we'll have one month in 2022 that will hit nearly 1% inflation (perhaps 0.9%). Annualized, that means we'll have an inflation rate of around 10%.

3. The Fed Funds Rate will quadruple 

It's currently less than 0.25%.

They will have to raise it dramatically to slow inflation.

4. S&P 500 loses 5%

Ever since 2018, US stocks have done well. Even the Coronapocolypse could not stop the S&P from gaining 18% in 2020!

The bonanza will finally take a pause in 2022.

The S&P will close below 4500.

Why?

• The US Fed will have to raise interest rates to stop inflation.


• The Coronavirus will continue to plague humanity (the Spanish flu killed 100 million and with all the unvaccinated, we will get more carnage).


• China tumbles into a recession.


•  Russia and/or China could rattle their sabers, which could spook the market.

5. The James Webb Telescope delivers sharp images

On Xmas 2021, the James Webb Telescope successfully launched, but we won't know until 2H 2022 whether it will deliver the sharp images that it promised.

It could easily have similar problems as the Hubble Telescope had.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to repair the Webb Telescope because it's 1 million miles away (Hubble was much closer).

So we'll be screwed if Webb fails, but I'm betting that it will live up to its expectations.

6. No flippening

Ethereum's market cap will not exceed bitcoin's in 2022, but it will get close!

7. Ethereum ends 2022 at $5,000 due to a disappointing 2.0 execution

Etherum 2.0 will launch in 2022, but it will be plagued with technical problems and disappointment.

Its proof-of-stake and layer-2 tech will function, but throughput will underwhelm and security patches will happen every month as hackers exploit the system.

Just like Bitcoin will peak with the ETF, Ethereum will peak with its 2.0 launch. 

8. Plan B will continue to tout his stock-to-flow model

Although Plan B repeatedly said that his doomed stock-to-flow bitcoin model will be invalidated if it fails to hit $100,000 in 2021, he changed his tune when a few weeks remained in 2021.

I predict that he will continue to refuse to admit that his model has failed.

Instead, he will observe that as long as the bitcoin price is above $30,000, all is well since it still can get well above $100,000 before May 2024, when the next bitcoin halving happens. 

He won't admit that his model is busted until 2025 when BTC will drop below the second standard deviation band.

Previous predictions

To see my previous forecasts check out my predictions in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Feedback

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You can watch this on YouTube

https://youtu.be/tNxCzC67tZE

During the holidays, if you can't afford to give a gift, then give blood to a stranger. 
#Donateblood.
I explain why you might want to do it for selfish reasons: it's good for you, possibly. 

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Gary Arndt, host of the Everything Everywhere Daily podcast returns to the WanderLearn podcast for a final time in 2021! It's episode #164!

In this 15-min podcast, Gary Arndt and I talk about:

• Presidential assassinations


• BTC Micropayments


• 
  

  Larks vs. Owls

  
  

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Gary Arndt, host of the Everything Everywhere Daily podcast returns to the WanderLearn podcast! It's episode 163!

In this 9-min podcast, Gary Arndt and I talk about:

• 
  

  Vaccines

  
  


• 
  

  Modern Racial Segregation

  
  


• 
  

  Political 3rd Parties

  
  


• 
  

  Errata in his podcast

  
  

Gary will be back next week for a final episode.

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Ma-Luschka Colindres works for an International Non-Governmental Organization (INGO) working in the realm of child rights.

She's lived in Central America, the Caribbean, USA, and West Africa.

You can see it on YouTube, which has some helpful video overlays.

You won't hear my voice during this interview because I was far from the microphone.

She discusses:

00:00 Who is Ma-Lushka Colindres
00:30 How to help Africans?
01:00 Where Senegal excels
02:30 Being a Black Non-African
03:40 Senegal's Unseen Sides
04:20 When will INGOs be obsolete?
04:50 INGO abusers
05:15 Culture Shock
08:00 Children in Senegal
09:45 Child Discipline
10:20 Africa's Future

Share your thoughts in the comments!

Gary Arndt will be back next week.

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Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

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Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Gary Arndt, host of the Everything Everywhere Daily podcast returns to the WanderLearn podcast! It's episode #160!

In this 15-min podcast, Gary Arndt and I talk about:

• 
  

  Will we land on Mars in the 2020s?

  
  


• 
  

  If not, when?

  
  


• 
  

  Hyperloop

  
  


• Boring Company


• 
  

  Nuclear power

  
  

Gary will be back next week.

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Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

Rewards start at just $2/month!

Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

I'm spending the 2021 Thanksgiving in Gambia.

So what should you be thankful for?

Reliable electricity and water.

Happy Thanksgiving!

See it on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRSPc7KbqTM 

Give anonymous verbal feedback to this show or to the podcast in general by using SpeakPipe.

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Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

 

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Gary Arndt returns to discuss:

• Gary's 2022 travel tour


• Unseen sides of Rome


• Minneapolis Post-George Floyd


• Why Starlink's $500 dish + $99/month deal changes everything

Gary will be back next week.

Give anonymous verbal feedback to this show or to the podcast in general by using the SpeakPipe link below.

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Listen to the episode first!

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My Patrons and Gossamer Gear sponsored this show!

On social media, my username is always ftapon. Follow me on:

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Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

Rewards start at just $2/month!

Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Gary Arndt returns to the WanderLearn podcast

In this 28-min podcast, Gary Arndt and I talk about:

• How podcasts are the blogs of yesteryear


• Facebook customer service


• Social Media vs. Discord


• Olympics


• Everything Everywhere's most memorable podcasts

Leave feedback:

http://speakpipe.com/ftapon

Gary will be back next week to talk about:

• Gary's 2022 travel tour


• Minneapolis Post-George Floyd


• Starlink

 

More info
If you like this, subscribe and share!

If you like this podcast, subscribe and share! 

Gossamer Gear sponsored this show!

On social media, my username is always ftapon. Follow me on:

• http://facebook.com/ftapon


• http://twitter.com/ftapon


• http://youtube.com/user/ftapon


• https://instagram.com/ftapon 


• http://pinterest.com/ftapon


• http://tumblr.com/ftapon

My Patrons sponsored this show!

Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

Rewards start at just $2/month!

Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

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 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

 

 

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe

Africa's population will grow from 1.3 billion to over 4 billion by 2100.

It already has a housing shortage.

Glen Jordan hopes to solve that with blockchain technology.

Glen is the CEO of Empowa, the first DeFi property platform on the Cardano blockchain.

Empowa combines emerging technology, sustainable building, and decentralized financial inclusion.

You can watch this interview on YouTube.

Glen Jordan and Francis Tapon discuss the following:

00:00 Intro
00:40 Structural issues
03:00 What is the scope of Empowa?
04:15 Mozambique example
06:00 Lease to buy vs. Mortgage
07:30 NOT for sale sign
11:40 Currency risk - EMP Token
14:00 How to pay rents
15:00 NFTs
21:00 Pensions for informal sector
23:00 Circular building
25:00 Housing shortage in Africa
27:45 Cinder block savings
30:30 Cardano
36:00 Impact investing
37:00 NFT Revenue Stream
39:20 Is Empowa too ambitious?
42:30 ISPO Oct 2021
44:00 Benefits of staking ADA
45:00 Future of Empowa

Cardano ISPO Stakepools

EMP1 (Smiles on Africa)

ID: d27af8f35c3d336500ff190011cd01edd1f84254002fad053

d326356

EMP2 (Proof of Africa)

ID: 4c419cdf15bae400b98aa9ec9a7d3de6dafc9eb258b31f

172c891dd5

 

Record Feedback for this episode
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More info
If you like this, subscribe and share!

If you like this podcast, subscribe and share! 

Gossamer Gear sponsored this show!

On social media, my username is always ftapon. Follow me on:

• http://facebook.com/ftapon


• http://twitter.com/ftapon


• http://youtube.com/user/ftapon


• http://pinterest.com/ftapon


• http://tumblr.com/ftapon

My Patrons sponsored this show!

Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

Rewards start at just $2/month!

Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

https://www.podbean.com/ftapon

 In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

 

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

 

ISPO Stakepools:
EMP1 (Smiles on Africa)
ID: d27af8f35c3d336500ff190011cd01edd1f84254002fad053
d326356

EMP2 (Proof of Africa)
ID: 4c419cdf15bae400b98aa9ec9a7d3de6dafc9eb258b31f
172c891dd5

 

Get full access to Francis Tapon at ftapon.substack.com/subscribe