We live in uncertain times. Military conflict, including in Europe, is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. People are suffering. And our economies are also affected, which is a specific challenge for central banks.

Our co-host Paul Gordon discusses this with Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 5 July 2024 and recorded on 2 July 2024.

1:02 A look at today’s geopolitical environment

Geopolitical risk can materialise unexpectedly. What are the risks in these uncertain times? How is the geopolitical landscape changing?

2:17 The price of war

What does military conflict mean for the economy? And how do events in other parts of the world affect us?

6:08 Challenges for central banks

Wars have an impact on our economies, including on inflation. This poses a challenge for central banks.

12:13 Managing geopolitical risks

How can we manage geopolitical risks better? Is more independence the only way?

16:17 Our guest’s hot tip

Moritz Schularick shares his hot tip with our listeners.

The ECB Forum on Central Banking

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20240701_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html

Federle, J, A Meier, G Müller, W Mutschler and M Schularick (2024), ‘DP18834 The Price of War‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18834. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18834

The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism by Martin Wolf

European Central Bank

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

European Banking Supervision

https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html