We Are Not Saved

1. The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth by Jonathan Rauch
2. Trans: When Ideology Meets Reality by: Helen Joyce
3. The Hard Sell: Crime and Punishment at an Opioid Startup by: Evan Hughes
4. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know by: Adam M. Grant
5. The Moth Presents Occasional Magic: True Stories about Defying the Impossible by: Various
6. Nicholas and Alexandra: The Fall of the Romanov Dynasty by: Robert K. Massie
7. Greenlights by: Matthew McConaughey
8. The Midnight Library by: Matt Haig
9. Trouble on Paradise: Expeditionary Force, Book 3.5 by: Craig Alanson
10. Black Ops: Expeditionary Force, Book 4 by: Craig Alanson
11. Zero Hour: Expeditionary Force, Book 5 by: Craig Alanson
12. Mavericks: Expeditionary Force, Book 6 by: Craig Alanson
13. Renegades: Expeditionary Force, Book 7 by: Craig Alanson

It seems that some people are over-reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We have gone so long without a war that we can only imagine it in apocalyptic terms. But that's precisely what we don't want to do because unlike any other point in history this war could turn into the apocalypse, and that's the last thing we want to do.

At some point, in some episode (and probably several episodes) I asserted that:

The world is changing faster than we can adapt to it.

Then (and now) this statement seemed obvious, so I remember being surprised when I got some pushback on it. But upon reflection it was also illuminating. Many disagreements come down to core values and assumptions which are so deeply embedded that we've forgotten they're there. It's what makes these disagreements so intractable. We're arguing from different, unseen foundations. I decided it was past time to unearth this particular foundation, and examine its various parts. What do I mean by "the world" and "change" and "speed" and "adaptation"? And if we can come to an agreement on all of that, what are the consequences of change moving faster than our ability to adapt?

I take a break from talking about the collapse of society and the world to rant about reading. In particular all the people who say I'm doing it wrong.

1. Empire of Pain: The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty by: Patrick Radden Keefe
2. Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19 by: Matt Ridley and Alina Chan
3. Exact Thinking in Demented Times: The Vienna Circle and the Epic Quest for the Foundations of Science by: Karl Sigmund
4. Columbus Day: Expeditionary Force, Book 1 by: Craig Alanson
5. SpecOps: Expeditionary Force, Book 2 by: Craig Alanson
6. Paradise: Expeditionary Force, Book 3 by: Craig Alanson
7. Row Daily, Breathe Deeper, Live Better: A Guide to Moderate Exercise by: Dustin Ordway
8. Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life by: Nir Eyal
9. What is a p-value anyway? 34 Stories to Help You Actually Understand Statistics by: Andrew Vickers
10. The Least of Us: True Tales of America and Hope in the Time of Fentanyl and Meth by: Sam Quinones
11. Empire of the Summer Moon: Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches, the Most Powerful Indian Tribe in American History by: S. C. Gwynne
12. Heart: The City Beneath by: Grant Howitt and Christopher Taylor

It's time for my newsletter again, and after going step by step through the ideas of Taleb we finally arrive at his crowning idea: antifragility. Perhaps the biggest contribution Taleb makes to our understanding of the world that by grappling with the idea of the opposite of fragility he was able to define fragility, and point out that the modern world is chock full of it.

It's not the end of the pandemic or even the beginning of the end, but we might be at the end of the beginning, and since I just read three books on the subject I thought I'd see what could be said at this point. Come for the discussion of school closure and why it might have seemed so important in the beginning, stay for an overview of the lab leak hypothesis. But most of all just listen to the episode!

I return to a discussion of Douthat's "Deep Places" in particular what it tells about modern epistemology, or as I like to call it, "reality construction". I examine the reality constructed by Douthat, but also the differences between how we constructed reality during the 1918 pandemic vs. how we construct it now. Come for the history, stay for the murderous story of aspirin.

1. Why Liberalism Failed by: Patrick J. Deenen
2. Leviathan Falls by: James S. A. Corey
3. Termination Shock by: Neal Stephenson
4. The Histories of Herodotus by: Herodotus
5. The Golden Transcendence by: John C. Wright
6. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by: Charlie MacKesy
7. Doctrine and Covenants

It's that time of year when people make predictions. I also make predictions though I do them somewhat differently. Mostly I'm interested in Identifying potential catastrophes and dismissing potential salvation. For example, nukes will get used again, and a benevolent AI won't save us.

The key thing is not to make accurate predictions, but to make useful predictions. And as it turns out there's a big difference between the two.