Wealth Formula Podcast

Wealth Formula Podcast

By Buck JoffreyBusinessInvesting
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Wealth Formula Podcast episodes

  • 314: Is Economics Just Common Sense?
    The hardest part about understanding economics is terminology. In reality, economics really just comes down to understanding human behavior based on incentives. Let's take for example the Cobra Effect. This is a term coined by economist Horst Siebert to describe a time in India under British rule when the local governor was trying to figure out how to deal with an apparent uptick of venomous snakes in Delhi. The governor decided to implement a bounty system. People were paid handsomely for each and every cobra head that they could produce. The solution worked very well at the beginning and there was a significant drop in the number of snakes in the area. However, over time the problem returned with a vengeance. Even though significant dead snakes were being produced and awarded with cash, the problem did not go away and even seemed worse. What do you think happened? Well, what if you were a poor Indian person in Delhi who started making good money killing snakes and then realized that there were less and less of them around to cash in on? What would you do? Well, you'd figure out a way to find more snakes. And, the easiest way to do that would be to simply to start a snake farm yourself. That's what happened and that is what is referred to as the Cobra Effect. This is a classic example of thinking through the incentives that drive people to come up with some possible outcomes resulting from various situations and policies. That is essentially what economics is. However, like many fields, economics is hindered by a lot of technical Jargon. It's what makes academics feel smart and what helps members of the Federal Reserve keep you out of the loop of what's really going on in the world. What do you think their incentive for confusing you might be? There is another economics question for you! My guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week is a journalist at a prestigious newspaper that believes that financial economics is just a matter of common sense. He didn't always think this. A journalist by trade, he felt completely overwhelmed by financial discussions until the age of 30. Then he took matters into his own hands and decided to take some time and learn the things that he thought were so confusing. To his surprise, they weren't confusing at all. They were common sense concepts that could be learned by anyone. In fact, he even wrote a book to help others understand the basics of macroeconomics from the perspective of a non-economist. His story is fascinating and inspiring. Make sure to listen in on our conversation on this week's Wealth Formula podcast. You might even want to grab a copy of his book.
    30 min
  • 313: Is There Such Thing As Economic Truth Anymore?
    As I write this email, I'm on my way to Phoenix for our biannual meetup. So…I'll keep it short. Coming up Covid and in the midst of a war in Europe we are experiencing unusual inflation forcing the Fed's hand at raising interest rates. Over the last several weeks, we have had several economists and authors on the show trying to predict the future. Unfortunately, that's not an easy task. We can look at the past and take some lessons from history. But nothing is exactly as it is today. Sure we had double-digit inflation in the late 70s and 80s but for very different reasons than rising inflation in 2022. So, the question is whether or not there is a playbook to deal with economic uncertainty and change. Of course, the answer is yes. We have our typical monetary and fiscal options. However, for a unique situation like we are in now, is there such thing as "economic truth"? My guest on this week's episode of Wealth Formula podcast thinks there is and he explains what he thinks we need to do in these interesting times. Listen Now!
    29 min
  • 312: Should Real Estate Investors Be Worried About Inflation?
    The most common question I get from investors these days is how increasing interest rates will affect the performance of our real estate holdings. There is often concern, for good reason, that as rates go up our net operating income will go down. The good news is that things aren't that simple. Rate increases don't happen in a vacuum. Remember that the reason the Fed is increasing interest rates in the first place is because of inflation. We are in 1980s territory with 8.5 year over year inflation. The Federal Reserve has to raise rates to keep it under control. But drilling down on inflation reveals an important reality in multifamily real estate. In our high growth markets, we are increasing rents at a pace that often significantly out-paces inflation right now. In other words, what we are finding is that we are driving net operating income up at our properties far in excess to what the inflation numbers show—as scary as they may sound. This is why we always talk about real estate as a hedge to inflation. You are seeing this reality in real time. Not only are we hedging inflation. In reality, as the second largest landlord in Phoenix, our rent increases are probably making a significant impact on the inflationary data in that market. The specific kind of real estate that we focus on is also helpful. Our leases are year-to-year so we can raise rents appropriately with the economic realities on the ground. Many commercial leases are multi-year fixed contracts that can not be altered to reflect inflation. Finally, you should know that cap rates do not correlate with interest rates in a linear fashion. Cap rates rise slower than interest rates. We also mitigate that risk by buying rate caps on all of our properties. Bottom line is that, in my opinion, high quality multifamily real estate in high growth markets is a great place to be in inflationary environments like we are now. I understand the anxiety people have about deploying capital but remember, not investing when there is 8.5 percent inflation year over year essentially guarantees you lose money in form of buying power. So fear is not going to save you money. But I know it's a complicated topic and to drill down on it further I talk with serial real estate entrepreneur, Christopher Volk, on this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Having taken multiple companies public including a REIT, he knows a thing or two about the real estate market!
    33 min
  • 311: Walmart's Chief Economist on Inflation, War and What it Takes to Scale a Business
    I have started a number of small businesses over the past decade. I know that a number of you run your own business or are thinking about some kind of new entrepreneurial endeavor. So, let me tell you about some of the things that I have learned. First, fewer variables make businesses easier to run and, in most cases, more profitable. You can see examples of this with big business all the time. Ever seen the menu at In-N-Out Burger? Pretty simple! While it may seem like a good idea to offer a lot of services to a lot of different kinds of people, most of the time businesses realize that this approach is not ideal. Too many products and services create too many variables. The more moving parts you have in a business makes it harder to run efficiently. Another lesson that I learned related to this concept of keeping complexity minimal is to stay away from businesses with too much overhead. I have run medical businesses with marketing budgets of over $1 million per year. In good months, I felt like I was king of the world. On the bad ones, I worried about becoming homeless! It's not a good way to live. Finally, the most difficult part of owning and scaling a business, in my opinion, is the issue of people. I once built a very successful cosmetic surgery business in Chicago and then tried to do the same in four other cities at the same time. My reasoning was that if I could do as well as I was in Chicago, why couldn't I do it in smaller markets? Well, those businesses failed miserably. And, in hindsight, the biggest reason for failure was because I did not have the right people to execute the plan. Of course, I'm just a bootstrap entrepreneur who's had some success and failures. But my guest on Wealth Formula podcast this week has been the chief economist at some of the biggest companies in the world. In fact, he has just been named the chief economist of Walmart. This week's Wealth Formula Podcast features an interview that I did with him. What I found fascinating about this interview was that many of the problems that I saw at my level were the same for multibillion dollar corporations. Of course, I couldn't resist getting his take on the current economy as well so I asked him a little bit about that. So whether you're interested on his takes on what it takes to grow and scale a business or what he thinks of today's unusual economic situation, be sure to tune in!
    39 min
  • 311: Walmart’s Chief Economist on Inflation, War and What it Takes to Scale a Business

    I have started a number of small businesses over the past decade. I know that a number of you run your own business or are thinking about some kind of new entrepreneurial endeavor.

    So, let me tell you about some of the things that I have learned. First, fewer variables make businesses easier to run and, in most cases, more profitable. You can see examples of this with big business all the time. Ever seen the menu at In-N-Out Burger? Pretty simple!

    While it may seem like a good idea to offer a lot of services to a lot of different kinds of people, most of the time businesses realize that this approach is not ideal.

    Too many products and services create too many variables. The more moving parts you have in a business makes it harder to run efficiently.

    Another lesson that I learned related to this concept of keeping complexity minimal is to stay away from businesses with too much overhead.

    I have run medical businesses with marketing budgets of over $1 million per year. In good months, I felt like I was king of the world. On the bad ones, I worried about becoming homeless! It’s not a good way to live.

    Finally, the most difficult part of owning and scaling a business, in my opinion, is the issue of people. I once built a very successful cosmetic surgery business in Chicago and then tried to do the same in four other cities at the same time.

    My reasoning was that if I could do as well as I was in Chicago, why couldn’t I do it in smaller markets? Well, those businesses failed miserably. And, in hindsight, the biggest reason for failure was because I did not have the right people to execute the plan.

    Of course, I’m just a bootstrap entrepreneur who’s had some success and failures. But my guest on Wealth Formula podcast this week has been the chief economist at some of the biggest companies in the world. In fact, he has just been named the chief economist of Walmart.

    This week’s Wealth Formula Podcast features an interview that I did with him. What I found fascinating about this interview was that many of the problems that I saw at my level were the same for multibillion dollar corporations.

    Of course, I couldn’t resist getting his take on the current economy as well so I asked him a little bit about that.

    So whether you’re interested on his takes on what it takes to grow and scale a business or what he thinks of today’s unusual economic situation, be sure to tune in!

    Professor John A. List is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His research focuses on combining field experiments with economic theory to deepen our understanding of the economic science. In the early 1990s, List pioneered field experiments as a methodology for testing behavioral theories and learning about behavioral principles that are shared across different domains. He co-authored the international best seller, The Why Axis, in 2013. List was elected a Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 2015. List received the 2010 Kenneth Galbraith Award, the 2008 Arrow Prize for Senior Economists for his research in behavioral economics in the field, and was the 2012 Yrjo Jahnsson Lecture Prize recipient. He is a current Editor of the Journal of Political Economy.

    Shownotes:

    • What is going on with the economy and where are we headed?
    • What is driving all of the inflation?
    • John as the new Chief Economist of Walmart
    • The Voltage Effect
    • 41 min
    • Bonus Episode: Financial Education for Kids
      My kids are little. My oldest is 12 and her sisters are 9 and 6. Admittedly, I've spent no significant amount of time trying to teach them about money as of yet. If anything, I have taught them a little bit about the burden of taxes by eating half of the cupcakes and ice cream and metaphorically blaming the IRS. That one seems to get the point across! When they get older, you can be sure that I will spend a significant amount of time with them teaching them about money. After all, it is my intent to leave them plenty of it after I die! For those of you who are further along in the process, I thought this week's discussion about children and money with an actual high school teacher might be of value. Disclaimer: I have not reviewed this guy's course and I don't know if it's worth it at all. However, there is no harm in listening to this perspective on a bonus podcast.
      22 min
    • 310: What's the Big Deal about Venture Capital?
      You would think from the vilification of capitalists in recent years that we are nothing but a waste of space on earth. "Pay your fair share capitalist pig!" That's what you hear these days from popular politicians on the left. Of course, in reality, without us, the government would be broke. What makes America great and what has made the world the place that it is in terms of technology and health care over the last century has entirely to do with the efforts of capitalists. Just think about all of those people walking around with iPhones these days. Was Steve Jobs doing that for free? Now, more people in the world have cellular phones and are connected to one another than any time in history. If you are the Unabomber and hate technology, you might have another view. However, technology has made our lives better and it is because of investments from capitalists like you and me. Now I'm not in the world of Venture Capital myself. If I knew enough to be able to invest intelligently I probably would be. Beyond its potential for huge returns venture drives innovation in our world today. And while most of us are far more interested in owning stable assets such as multi family real estate, it's good to know the role venture capital in our world today. And who knows, you may be inspired to become a venture capitalist yourself. Listen to this week's Wealth Formula Podcast episode to learn why Venture Capital is a big deal.
      30 min
    • 310: What’s the Big Deal about Venture Capital?

      You would think from the vilification of capitalists in recent years that we are nothing but a waste of space on earth.

      “Pay your fair share capitalist pig!” That’s what you hear these days from popular politicians on the left. Of course, in reality, without us, the government would be broke.

      What makes America great and what has made the world the place that it is in terms of technology and health care over the last century has entirely to do with the efforts of capitalists.

      Just think about all of those people walking around with iPhones these days. Was Steve Jobs doing that for free? Now, more people in the world have cellular phones and are connected to one another than any time in history.

      If you are the Unabomber and hate technology, you might have another view. However, technology has made our lives better and it is because of investments from capitalists like you and me.

      Now I’m not in the world of Venture Capital myself. If I knew enough to be able to invest intelligently I probably would be. Beyond its potential for huge returns venture drives innovation in our world today.

      And while most of us are far more interested in owning stable assets such as multi family real estate, it’s good to know the role venture capital in our world today. And who knows, you may be inspired to become a venture capitalist yourself.

      Listen to this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast episode to learn why Venture Capital is a big deal.

      Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributing columnist for The Washington Post. An experienced journalist and public speaker, Mallaby contributes to a variety of other publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He is the author of five books, most recently “The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future.” Mallaby’s interests cover a wide variety of domestic and international issues, including central banks, financial markets, the implications of the rise of newly emerging powers, and the intersection of economics and international relations. His book “The Man Who Knew: The Life & Times of Alan Greenspan” won the 2016 Financial Times/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award and the 2017 George S. Eccles Prize in Economic Writing. His book “More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite” was described by New York Times columnist David Brooks as “superb”; it was the recipient of the 2011 Loeb Prize and a New York Times bestseller. Mallaby’s earlier works are “The World’s Banker,” a portrait of the World Bank under James Wolfensohn that was named as an “Editor’s Choice” by the New York Times; and “After Apartheid,” which was named by the New York Times as a “Notable Book.” An essay in the Financial Times said of “The World’s Banker”: “Mallaby’s book may well be the most hilarious depiction of a big organization and its controversial boss since Michael Lewis’s Liar’s Poker.” Before joining the Council on Foreign Relations, Mallaby was a Washington Post columnist and editorial board member for eight years. Before that, he spent 13 years with The Economist, during which time he worked in London, where he wrote about foreign policy and international finance; in Africa, where he covered Nelson Mandela’s release and the collapse of apartheid; and in Japan, where he covered the breakdown of the country’s political and economic consensus. Between 1997 and 1999, Mallaby was The Economist’s Washington bureau chief and wrote the magazine’s weekly Lexington column on American politics and foreign policy. He is a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist: once for editorials on Darfur and once for a series on economic inequality. In 2015, he helped to found a startup, InFacts.org, a web publication making the fact-based case for Britain to remain in the European Union. Mallaby was educated at Oxford, graduating in 1986 with a first-class degree in modern history. After 18 years in Washington, D.C., he moved to London in 2014, where he lives with his wife, Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor in chief of The Economist.

      Shownotes:

      • What is Venture Capital?
      • Groupthink and its effects on Venture Capital investments
      • VCs and Capitalism?
      • Sebastian’s book: The Power Law
      • 32 min
      • 309: A Money Revolution?
        Money has taken on many forms throughout history. In the last couple of centuries gold has been the dominant form of money recognized globally. In 1912 J.P. Morgan himself said, "Money is gold, and nothing else". Yet the relevance of gold has really come into question since Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard in 1971. That move has been vilified by Austrian economists and others who treasure the concept of sound money. The revolution that started in 1971 changed the global economy from one based on gold to one based on credit. That sounds like anathema doesn't it? Well…maybe a credit-based economy is not so bad. After all, it could be argued that the uncoupling of gold and the US dollar resulted in the most rapid growth in global wealth over the last 50 years than ever before in history. It could be argued that "creditism" resulted in fewer people in poverty around the world and even the fall of the Soviet Union. If that's the case, is credit and debt so bad? Richard Duncan doesn't think so. In fact, he's written a new book that suggests that we should lean into our debt with investments that will bring us to the next level of a civilized society. Curious? Make sure to tune into this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast!
        54 min
      • 308: Interest Rates, Inflation and Cryptocurrency!
        I write this on the "Ides of March" one day before the Federal Reserve meets to discuss the economy and its plans for the near future. The 900-pound gorilla in the room is inflation although the war in Ukraine may be a mitigating factor for the impending hawkish moves anticipated. By the time this post is published and podcast recorded, you'll already know what happened at that meeting. Let me guess…an increase in the discount rate by 25 basis points? Well, that's what has baked into the markets and what will dictate any further market movements is discussion of further rate hikes and disposition of the Fed's bond portfolio. Ok, so now what do you do? Should you panic and stop investing? Well, that's the knee-jerk response right? But remember, why are rates going up in the first place? Yes…inflation. And what happens to the money in your bank account during inflation? It loses value. So, keeping yourself in cash right now is pretty much a guaranteed way to lose money. In order for you to break even, you have to be keeping up with inflation at least! What am I doing? I'm still investing my money in assets hedged for inflation. The good news is that I don't have to change my investment strategy at all because multifamily real estate is a great hedge against inflation. "But Buck", you ask, "won't cap rates go up with interest rates?" Typically that's true although it's not necessarily a linear relationship. Furthermore, ask yourself once again why mortgage rates would go up? Yes…inflation. And yes…inflation means increasing rents as well. In other words, increasing rates is hedged by increasing rents. Now to be clear, I'm not saying we have nothing to worry about. There is a Chinese curse that says, "May you live in interesting times." Like it or not, we live in interesting times with plenty of danger and uncertainty. All we can do is be rational and disciplined with how we allocate our money. How we allocate money may not be the same for everyone in the world right now either. If I was in Russia I'd try to buy as much bitcoin as possible to get out of the Ruble in a hurry. But in the US, the more reliable hedge might still be good old-fashioned multifamily real estate. It's a complicated topic and worth discussing further with experts on investing trends and that is exactly what we will do on this week's Wealth Formula Podcast with my guest David Sacco! P.S. DO NOT miss our upcoming meetup in Phoenix. Mark April 22nd and 23rd on your calendar and CLICK HERE to register ASAP. Only a few spots remain!
        37 min

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