Interview with
Andrew Penkethman, MD & CEO of Ardea Resources Ltd.
Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel

Recording date: 2nd February 2026

The global nickel market is undergoing a fundamental transformation that is creating investment opportunities in Western-controlled supply chains. Andrew Penkethman, CEO of Ardea Resources, and Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, recently discussed how their large-scale projects in Australia and Canada are positioned to capitalise on this shift.

After two challenging years dominated by Indonesian supply flooding global markets, the landscape is changing. Since December 2025, nickel prices have risen approximately $4,500 per ton as Indonesia transitions from overwhelming production to active supply management. Selby characterises Indonesia as "an OPEC of one country," now implementing quota controls rather than unrestricted output. Price increases across the entire supply chain—from ore to nickel pig iron to stainless steel—indicate genuine market tightness rather than temporary speculation.

Both executives emphasise a critical distinction between their new development projects and the aging operations that closed in 2024. Legacy assets from BHP and First Quantum represent 30-year-old mines with declining grades, increasing costs, and years of underinvestment. In contrast, Ardea's Goongarrie Hub and Canada Nickel's Crawford project offer fresh economics with 30-50+ year mine lives, substantial resources, and modern processing capabilities that position them favourably on the cost curve.

Strategic validation has arrived through significant partnerships. Ardea secured $98.5 million in definitive feasibility study funding from Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Corporation, whilst Canada Nickel attracted Anglo American, Agnico Eagle, and Samsung SDI as investors. These experienced institutions seek long-term supply arrangements spanning decades, not speculative positions.

Government support is accelerating development timelines. Both projects have received major project status enabling streamlined permitting and access to sovereign wealth fund financing. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney personally promotes the Crawford project to Middle Eastern investors, whilst Australia develops an "investor front door" program for critical minerals projects.

The investment thesis extends beyond electric vehicles into broader critical minerals security. Chinese interests control approximately 80% of refined nickel supply, creating strategic vulnerabilities that Western governments address through supply chain diversification initiatives. With defence spending increasing globally and only a handful of quality nickel projects advancing worldwide, both companies expect construction decisions in 2026-2027.

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