What Goes Up

Simultaneous pressure from markets and President Donald Trump to lower interest rates makes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell look like a guy whose necktie is too tight, says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at brokerage BTIG. He explains why, despite that pressure, the Fed may not cut rates in July as markets expect. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion technology columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses how Slack Technologies Inc. has made its stock-market debut at a time when subscription-based, business-to-business software stocks are hot. Mentioned in this podcast:  Only Game in Town, U.S. Stocks Surge to Records in Yield Chase

 What Dangers Lurk in Tech Company Emails?

 Slack Poised to Join Cloud Valuations Soaring Into Thin Air

Fatter Neckties Will Save the Economy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Short-seller Ben Axler’s Spruce Point Capital Management is thriving in the age of computerized investing by going where the machines don’t. He joins this week’s conversation to share how he digs deep into proxy statements and other obscure documents to sniff out the incentive targets that influence management, and then reverse engineers the ways they’re accomplishing them. Sebastian Boyd, a Santiago, Chile-based writer for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog, also discusses the state of credit markets and what to expect from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. 

Mentioned in this podcast:

The Tiny Activist Fund That Reaped 24% Return by Unearthing ‘Cockroaches’

Short Squeeze Fuels Junk-Bond ETF Jump After Record Bearish Bets 

Fed Seen on Track for 2019 Rate Cut Though Call Is Close 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the midst of a multi-front trade war, Wall Street has advised that investors shun emerging market stocks. Rob Arnott, the founder of Research Affiliates and “godfather” of smart beta investing, disagrees. It's why half of his personal portfolio now sits in developing-nation value stocks, and his firm’s models predict U.S. equities will only return half of a percentage point in real terms over the next decade. Bloomberg’s Chris Nagi, a Bloomberg markets executive editor, also joins the conversation to discuss what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s “appropriate” comments mean for stocks.

Mentioned in this podcast: ‘Do They Have Enough Ammo?’: Markets Mull Potency of a Powell Put Pioneer of Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Says Don't Relax Yet Risk-On Is Back as Rally-Hungry Bulls Set Aside Trade Fears

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors hadn’t quite finished wrapping their heads around what the escalating trade tensions with China would mean for their portfolios when President Donald Trump lobbed another bombshell into markets: the threat of tariffs on all imports from Mexico unless the nation halts the flow of immigrants crossing the border into the U.S. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brian Chappatta joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the market’s reaction and why, despite the threat of higher prices from tariffs, investors are betting on lower interest rates. Also joining the show is Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who describes her firm’s deep-dive research into how trade tensions will affect companies. They went through 500 conference-call transcripts over three quarters and lived to tell about it!

Mentioned in this podcast:  S&P 500 Is at Risk of a 10% Tumble as Trade Angst Deepens, RBC Says Bond Traders Start Panic Buying in New Yield OrderPimco Warns That Central Banks Can’t Rescue the Bond Market Wall Street’s Darkening Trade War Gloom Means Tossing Old Advice

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Relations between the U.S. and China took a dangerous turn this week, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams: It’s now a technology war, not just a trade war. She joins co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. Also joining the show is Bloomberg’s Emily Barrett, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team, who talks about expectations for a low-inflation environment reflected in market pricing and what the latest Federal Reserve minutes signal for the path of interest rates. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump’s bestseller "The Art of the Deal" is often cited by those trying to understand the president’s negotiating tactics as he escalates trade tensions with China. Ben Emons, a macro strategist at Medley Global Advisors, has been reading a different book in an attempt to understand the other side: ``The Art of War,” an ancient Chinese military strategy tome by Sun Tzu. Emons joins hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan this week to discuss the risks and opportunities in global markets as the trade war heats up. Also joining the podcast is Ye Xie, a Bloomberg Markets Live blogger, who gives his take on the situation and recommends some other literature that may illuminate China’s strategy.

Mentioned in this podcast: Bonds Calling the Shots for Stocks as Rate Cuts Outweigh Trade Markets That Priced in a Trade Skirmish Now Brace for a Bruising Fight The Perils of Betting on a Quick End to U.S.-China Trade War

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Renewed trade tensions between the U.S and China arrived in markets like a “skunk at the garden party,” according to David Joy, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial who has more than 40 years of experience in investment management. He tells co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan how he’s expecting markets to handle this pungent new arrival on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast.

 Along with that skunk, Uber Technologies arrived at the garden party of public markets this week with its long-awaited initial public offering. Kathleen Smith, co-founder of Renaissance Capital and manager of the IPO exchange-traded fund, joins the podcast to assess Uber and the rest of the money-losing herd of unicorns that may make 2019 a record year for IPO issuance. 

 As always, the hosts and guests finish up with a discussion of the craziest things they saw in markets this week.  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days about one in three bites of food you eat wouldn’t be possible without commercial bee pollination. And the economic value of insect pollination worldwide is estimated to be about $217 billion. But as important as bees have become for farming, there’s also increasing signs that bees are in trouble. In the decade-plus since the first cases of Colony Collapse Disorder were reported, bees are still dying in record numbers, and important questions remain unanswered. On this new miniseries, host Adam Allington and environment reporters David Schultz and Tiffany Stecker travel to all corners of the honeybee ecosystem from Washington, D.C., to the California almond fields, and orchards of the upper Midwest to find answers to these questions.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Campbell Harvey, finance professor at Duke University and a senior adviser at Research Affiliates, joins Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan in this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. He discusses his dissertation on the yield curve and what he calls the “Four Horsemen” of a recession. He’s joined by Bloomberg strategist Cameron Crise, who gives a former macro trader’s perspective on how academic research like Harvey's influences buying and selling decisions.

Mentioned in this podcast:

The Fourth Horseman of the Next Recession ApproachesAlice’s Adventures in Factorland: Three Blunders That Plague Factor InvestingThe Management of Political Risk

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the debut episode of “What Goes Up,” hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan explore what’s driving the stock market’s gains and why some bears are skeptical that the rally will be sustainable. Bloomberg executive editor Chris Nagi and cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa also join the conversation and look at how crude oil and the dollar have also been rallying, and why those gains could have huge implications for all manner of investments.

 Mentioned in this podcast: All the Stuff Bears Are Saying to Spoil the S&P 500 Record PartyRed-Hot Nasdaq Run Is the Triumph of a Few Stocks Over the ManyKing Dollar Defies the Doubters as the U.S. Provides Investors an ‘Oasis’Oil Market Confounded Again as Trump Surprises on Iran Sanctions

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.