Recently leaked court documents during the Microsoft Activision hearing require us to revisit our cloud forecasts and market share data. The poorly redacted docs, which have since been removed from public viewing, suggest that Microsoft’s Azure revenue is at least 25% lower than our previous estimates. As a result, we’ve cut and revised our Azure revenue figures which in turn increases AWS’ big 4 hyperscale cloud market share. Our new estimates show that AWS maintains a greater than 50% share of revenue through 2023. While the change also helps Google Cloud, its market share is only modestly affected. 

In this Breaking Analysis we update our hyperscaler cloud revenue estimates and market share data. We’ll also explain how the ETR data on cloud should be interpreted in this context and look forward to potential catalysts for cloud growth, including acceleration in Q4 attributable to generative AI.

Microsoft annual 10K:

https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/e2931fdb-9823-4130-b2a8-f6b8db0b15a9

Wikibon repatriation report:

https://wikibon.com/breaking-analysis-desperately-seeking-cloud-repatriation/

SiliconANGLE article on leaked court documents with Azure revenue data:

https://siliconangle.com/2023/06/29/court-filing-shows-microsoft-azure-generated-lower-expected-34b-revenue-2022/

Constellation report on cloud optimization:

https://www.constellationr.com/blog-news/private-cloud-compelling-option-cios-insights-new-research