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Brazilian Soybean Areas Facing Dry Conditions:
Key Brazilian soybean areas are expected to remain mostly dry through the weekend, leading to crop stress due to abnormally warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall. Rain is forecast to return by Tuesday next week, with central and northern areas expected to receive better amounts through Christmas. The extended Global Forecast System (GFS) suggests additional rainfall for some areas by year-end but may not be reliable.

Ethanol Producers Awaiting SAF Credit Approval:
Ethanol producers are anticipating a victory with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits. The Biden administration is expected to approve the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, allowing ethanol-based SAF to qualify for tax credits. However, the administration is also expected to update the GREET methodology by March 1, potentially impacting the use of corn-based ethanol in SAF. Regulations around SAF feedstocks are expected to tighten.

Record-High Electric Vehicle (EV) Inventories:
US EV inventories on dealer lots have doubled compared to a year ago, resulting in a 114-day supply. Consumers have been deterred from EVs due to their high cost and inadequate charging infrastructure. Major automakers like Ford and GM are reducing production of some EV models. A group of US auto dealers has requested the Biden administration to reduce EV mandates because of the large inventories.

Rainfall in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas:
Rainfall moved over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas recently, with up to 2.5 inches recorded in parts of the Texas panhandle and northward regions. This rainfall is much needed, as many areas have been experiencing drought conditions to varying degrees. Kansas rated the winter wheat crop at 39% good to excellent in its final crop progress report for the year.

Declining Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage rates in the US have declined for seven consecutive weeks, with the average 30-year mortgage rate falling to 6.95%, the lowest since August. Rates peaked in October at 7.8%. The Fed's forecast of rate cuts in 2024 is expected to push mortgage rates near or below 6%. Lower rates are expected to boost home sales, which have slowed significantly due to rising rates.

US Grain Export Sales:
US corn export sales improved last week, with net sales of 1.4 million metric tons (56 million bushels), up 10% from the previous week. Net soybean sales of 1.1 million metric tons (40 million bushels) were down 23% from the previous week. Net wheat sales were strong, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (55 million bushels), a marketing year high.

Flash Sale of Soybeans Reported by USDA:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 400,000 metric tons (15 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. However, the US soybean export book continues to lag behind the same period last year by 20%.

Stay tuned for more updates on these and other market developments! 🌽🚜📉 #SoybeanAreas #EthanolProducers