A new YouGov poll has Reform just four points behind the Conservatives. Richard Tice’s party is on 15 per cent, and Rishi Sunak’s party is on 19 per cent. What is driving the Tory decline?



Max Jeffery speaks to Katy Balls and to James Johnson of JL Partners.

Will Reform overtake the Tories?

Instant political analysis from the Spectator's top team of writers, including Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman, Katy Balls, James Heale and many others.

News

Politics

Daily News

It's the first day back after the local elections. Following Thursday's results, some polling suggests that if the votes were replicated in a general election, there might be a hung parliament. Could this be a reality? 



The Spectator's James Heale and Katy Balls are joined by Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta. 



Produced by Megan McElroy. 

Will there really be a hung parliament?

The local elections results are in, and the Conservatives have lost more than 450 council seats. After a full recount, Labour’s Richard Parker beat Andy Street to become West Midlands mayor, with only around 1500 votes in it. What does his loss mean for Rishi Sunak, and where do the overall results leave him? Katy Balls and James Heale speak to Megan McElroy.



Produced by Megan McElroy. 






What does Andy Street's defeat mean for Rishi Sunak?

Rishi Sunak can breathe a (small) sigh of relief. Ben Houchen, the so-called ‘patron saint of the red wall’, has won a third term as Tees Valley mayor. Houchen secured 53.6 per cent of the vote with Labour in second place with 41.3 per cent, despite some polls in advance suggesting it was neck-and-neck between the Tories and Labour. The Conservatives have undeniably had one of their worst nights for a generation, but are there some silver linings? 



James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson. 



Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson. 

Have the Tories avoided a local election catastrophe?

It's looking like the worst night for the Conservatives in 40 years. The prediction – that the Tories will lose about half of the council seats they are defending – looks on track so far. Labour comfortably won the Blackpool South by-election with a 26 per cent swing and it has also taken several key councils, including Rushmoor which has been Tory-run for the last 24 years. A Gaza backlash has seen Labour lose Oldham while the Conservatives have suffered a string of council losses, coming within 120 votes being beaten by Reform in Blackpool.



Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson. 



Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Labour triumphs in Blackpool as Tories suffer heavy losses

Tomorrow, voters go to the polls for the last set of local elections in this parliament, alongside 11 mayoral elections in England, 37 police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales plus the London Assembly elections. Could Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor, help turn Rishi Sunak's fortunes around?



You can read James Heale's assessment of the key battlegrounds here. 



Also on the podcast, a look at rumours that Labour are in talks to water down their employment policies. 



Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and John McTernan, former adviser to Tony Blair. 

Will Reform overtake the Tories?

Download our free app to listen on your phone