What does the World Cup have in common with Wall Street trading desks?

In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down the hidden financial world behind the biggest sporting event on the planet. From Goldman Sachs’ 100,000-run quant model predicting the winner of the tournament, to the rise of Polymarket and decentralised prediction exchanges, this is the World Cup through the lens of markets, trading and probability.

We explore how bookmakers operate like market makers, why prediction markets are disrupting the betting industry, and how billions of dollars are now being traded on World Cup outcomes. We also dive into the data behind implied probabilities, elo ratings, liquidity, market inefficiencies and why England may be one of the most mispriced teams in the tournament.

Plus, we uncover fascinating ECB research showing how football matches cause trading volume in London markets to collapse in real time.

If you want to understand how finance, probability, trading and sport collide, this episode is for you.

(00:00) The Finance Behind The World Cup

(03:51) How Bookies Really Make Money

(05:48) The Problem With “Smart Money”

(14:03) Prediction Markets Explained

(16:06) Polymarket vs The Bookies

(20:23) Goldman Sachs Predicts The Winner

(23:01) What Is An Elo Rating?

(24:44) Goldman Predictions 5th to 1st

(26:05) Argentina: Winners Slump Factor

(26:54) France: Bracket Drag

(27:26) Why England Is Overpriced

(30:08) Goldman’s Terrible Track Record

(31:40) World Cup Impact On Markets

(35:12) The Economic Boom Of Football

(37:26) Final Predictions & Golden Boot