Yet Another Value Podcast

Brian Albrecht, Chief Economist of the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), joins the podcast today to discuss ICLE's paper on the $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction.

ICLE Paper on Kroger / Albertson's merger: https://laweconcenter.org/icle-on-kroger-albertsons/

White paper: https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kroger-Albertsons-Merger-Full-Paper.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:32] Overview of ICLE (International Center for Law & Economics) and Brian's background

[3:12] Kroger / Albertson's merger - how Brian is thinking about this potential merger

[6:55] FTC's analytical framework

[10:58] Why government hasn't brought more suits in grocery industry

[14:34] Should precedent be updated?

[24:05] Why shouldn't market shares matter?

[28:30] How have delivery services changed the market index & wrap-up on wholesale clubs, competition

[33:05] Divestitures

[39:26] Specific divestiture package - Haggen's example

[46:20] Waterbed effect - why this is or isn't an antitrust concern

[51:44] Regional power vs. local power with retail workers

[59:01] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the second time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial now that closing arguments have been made. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #204, Michael's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:41] Update since half-time report: overall thoughts on trial now that we have had closing arguments - $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial

[3:55] $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial closing arguments

[11:04] Feel for how Judge is likely to craft opinion on the case

[14:20] Potential additional remedies to get merger over the hurdle

[17:02] Market definition and timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers)

[23:41] Step 3: the burden of proof from the DOJ, showing there is harm to consumers

[24:32] Cont'd: timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers

[27:51] United Airlines testimony

[35:03] Commentary on Spirit's survivability if merger doesn't go through

[41:38] JetBlue's second expert witness

[43:43] Dr. Chipley's testimony

[45:54] Closing arguments cont'd: competition be preserved

[48:02] Closing arguments cont'd: balance of nationwide benefit vs. local harm

[52:28] Main divergence of opinion based on being in the courtroom

[56:52] Hot docs

[59:05] Odds of merger going through closes vs. failing vs. re-pricing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Jeremy Raper, Founder of Raper Capital, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss Bragg Gaming (NASDAQ: BRAG / TSX: BRAG), a global B2B content-driven iGaming technology provider. On November 22, 2023, Jeremy published "An Open Letter to the Chair of the Board of Bragg Gaming Group." on his website (link below), where he outlines strategic alternatives for the company. Jeremy and Andrew close out with Jeremy's take on the Spirit / JetBlue trial.

For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/

Jeremy's Letter to $BRAG management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/11/22/an-open-letter-to-the-chair-of-the-board-of-bragg-gaming-group/

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:55] Jeremy's Letter to the Board of Bragg Gaming $BRAG; company/thesis background and why Jeremy wrote and sent the letter

[17:20] Who is the right buyer for $BRAG?

[24:51] $BRAG financing in September 2022

[31:14] $BRAG CEO and management performance

[37:55] $BRAG final thoughts

[38:35] Jeremy's take on Spirit / JetBlue trial

[44:13] How Spirit / JetBlue trial compares to Twitter / Elon case

[47:23] Spirit / JetBlue bear case

[50:10] How Spirit / JetBlue case affects Hawaiian Airlines and Alaskan Airlines merger

[54:11] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this November 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the opacity and aggression of the FTC, how he is thinking about the Spirit trial, Amazon / iRobot deal and reflections on Charlie Munger.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[2:07] What is on Chris' mind this month: M&A, arbitrage, anti-trust, recent podcast with Lena Khan, Chair of the FTC

[7:49] How Chris is thinking about the Spirit trial, and the implications if the merger does not go through

[21:07] Spirit trial: airplane shortages and expert witnesses

[29:35] Spirit / JetBlue bear argument about hot docs

[33:47] Amazon / iRobot deal

[40:16] Final thoughts: reflections on Charlie Munger

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this November 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the opacity and aggression of the FTC, how he is thinking about the Spirit trial, Amazon / iRobot deal and reflections on Charlie Munger.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:28] What is on Chris' mind this month: M&A, arbitrage, anti-trust, recent podcast with Lena Khan, Chair of the FTC

[7:10] How Chris is thinking about the Spirit trial, and the implications if the merger does not go through

[20:28] Spirit trial: airplane shortages and expert witnesses

[38:56] Spirit / JetBlue bear argument about hot docs

[33:08] Amazon / iRobot deal

[39:38] Final thoughts: reflections on Charlie Munger

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast to do a fun AMA, not as a guest, but putting his hosting skills to the test and interviewing YAVP host, Andrew Walker.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Chapters:

[1:25] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:03] Idea/inspiration for launching Yet Another Value Podcast

[5:56] 5% that is not "Podcast Andrew"

[7:10] YAVP format - how Andrew got to this podcast format

[10:56] Sourcing guests

[18:07] Interview preparation process

[26:29] Interviewer inspiration and how Andrew's interview style have evolved

[30:14] Striking a balance between leading guests too much vs. letting guests go on their own paths

[32:07] What makes a stock pitch stand out? Good stock idea vs. good stock pitch

[36:55] How has being a podcast host made Andrew a better investor?

[39:37] Andrew's investment style and philosophy

[42:42] How many ideas did Andrew end up investing in post-publishing a podcast

[45:02] What Andrew has learned about building a network, a community and connecting with people from the podcast

[47:41] Three people in the world Andrew wants to have on the podcast and the funniest moment thus far

[53:28] Three companies that Andrew would like to see discussed on the podcast

[55:59] Where does Andrew want to see the podcast go

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the first time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial that is now underway. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #197 with Lionel Hutz: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lionel-hutz-breaks-down-the-jetblue

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:38] Michael's overview of the $SAVE / $JBLU trial as the trial has commenced

[14:47] How $SAVE / $JBLU case compared to Spectrum Brands trial

[16:20] Judge for the $SAVE / $JBLU trial

[19:52] Divestitures

[22:50] Anti-competitive arguments

[26:27] Spirit "Hot Docs" (Hot Documents)

[29:02] "Flailing Firm" defense

[35:28] Spirit stock performance since the trial started

[39:41] Head of Network

[42:31] Government "Hot Docs"

[45:32] Market Definition

[49:55] Additional takeaways from $SAVE / $JBLU case - government's focus on $SAVE's business model and testimonies on the fluidity of this industry

[51:32] Odds of DOJ winning vs. $JBLU winning

[54:26] What makes Michael think that this case isn't a coin flip in $JBLU's favor

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this October 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on problems and opportunities in biotech, tax loss selling, closed-end funds, big spread arbitrage, Albertson's / Kroger merger case and predictions for upcoming Liberty Day.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:22] What is on Chris' mind this month: merger arb, closed-end fund, failed biotech, Liberty Day

[3:42] How Chris is thinking about biotech companies right now

[6:24] Problems in biotech, but is there opportunities?

[10:36] Closed-end funds

[14:04] Big spread arbitrage

[22:10] Albertson's / Kroger merger case

[33:15] Predictions for Liberty Day

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research, returns to the podcast for the fourth(!!) time to discuss his thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands (NASDAQ: MODG) and how it is growing an entire industry.

Subscribe to the Boyar Research Substack here: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/

You can Follow Boyar Research on Twitter/X here: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue

$MODG write-up: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/p/a-company-thats-growing-its-entire

Chapters:

[1:42] Topgolf Callaway Brands $MODG and why its interesting

[3:57] Why $MODG is clearly a "Topgolf" story? And, what is Topgolf

[12:05] Land grab for opening new "Topgolf" or competitive stores

[15:00] What Jon thinks people are so worried about Topgolf

[18:06] Topgolf pushback: financing new stores

[22:17] Would it be better to separate Topgolf and Callaway?

[24:42] Topgolf advertising revenue stream and what is the company referring to when they say they are "maximizing economics" of the business (PEI system)

[29:30] KPIs the company tracks

[33:50] $MODG valuation

[39:04] "Toptracer" part of the business

[41:22] Pressure on $MODG stock; what keeps Jon up at night about the idea and various upside scenarios

[46:36] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.

Daye Deng, Co-Founder and Editor of the Value Punks newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his articles that are deep dives on Japanese Trading Companies and why Warren Buffett invested in Japan.

Value Punks article on Japanese Trading Companies: https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-japanese-trading-companies

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:26] History of the Japanese trading companies and Warren Buffett

[6:59] Why trading so important in Japanese economy

[12:37] Why Buffett made his first investment in Japan

[22:23] Breaking down of Sogo Shosha (Japanese Trading Companies)

[26:38] Why Buffett holding his investment despite run-up

[28:21] Examples of corporate governance and capital allocation changes that Japanese trading companies specifically made to improve them

[37:54] Overview of the basket of 7 Japanese Trading Companies, and what Daye thinks is the most interesting/exciting; difference between tier one, tier two and tier three players, and how would Daye label the 5 companies Buffett invested in (Tier 1-3)

[43:16] Geopolitical reasons folks interested in Japan

[47:13] ESG in Japan

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.