Yet Another Value Podcast

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management is back on the podcast today to provide an update on Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LW), a key supplier of french fries to fast-food chains, following their recent quarterly update and in advance of their investor day.

Check out his first appearance on YAVP laying out his $LW thesis (December 2022): https://youtu.be/lNY8sQVttks

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:24] Update on Lamb Weston Holdings $LW since AJ's last appearance on YAVP in December 2022; how the stock has performed / fundamental issues

[5:44] $LW recent conference call: French fry attachment rate and why it matters / inventory destocking

[13:07] Current valuation for $LW and justifying AJ's $7 EPS thesis / key drivers of value

[20:30] Gross margins and SG&A expenses

[23:45] Expectations from the $LW investor day / should they be doing an investor day?

[31:43] Buybacks

[34:18] $LW final thoughts / bear case?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast to make the case that Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is not a fad.

For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:36] What is $CROX, why is it interesting to Mitchell and $CROX growth story

[4:50] What is Jibbitz, patent protection on the product and consumer trends using the product

[8:22] $CROX valuation

[12:16] $CROX bear case and response

[16:44] Why aren't there more Crocs knock-offs

[17:40] Is $CROX just a COVID beneficiary and Crocs brand power

[22:01] Crocs core customer and fashion/age out risk

[25:04] HEYDUDE acquisition, go-forward with management's strategy around the brand, average customer of HEYDUDE shoes, knock off problem and why would one need multiple pairs of them

[34:19] How do overcome the bears $CROX worry that Crocs (and other brands $CROX owns) turns out to be a fad

[38:45] Why is $CROX the best buyer and owner of HEYDUDE?

[41:00] Endgame for $CROX / apparel line in the future?

[44:17] Final thoughts on $CROX: shifting HEYDUDE wholesale channel, worry about inventory buildup and this year's earnings

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Daniel Biolsi, Head of Consumer Staples sector at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on current state of the Consumer Staples sector in 2023.

For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye

[0:56] State of the Consumer Staples sector

[4:04] $COST and BJ's thesis

[8:24] Why long Albertson's $ACI + thoughts on acquisition proposed by Kroger

[21:14] $KVUE Kenvue thesis

[28:04] Hershey $HSY, international expansion, response to short report and GLP-1 drugs

[38:39] International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF negative sentiment

Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye

This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com

Mordechai Yavneh, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Focus Capital, returns to the podcast to discuss how the Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SIMO) / MaxLinear (NASDAQ: MXL) deal fell apart.

Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research

Mordechai's December 2022 $SIMO pitch on YAVP: https://youtu.be/f--RrIG1fAQ

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:46] Update since Mordechai's $SIMO pitch with Andrew in December 2022; how $SIMO / $MXL fell apart

[6:49] The four reasons $MXL said they were able to back out of the deal

[13:53] Why $MXL does not really have the right to terminate the deal

[22:37] Back and forth on the necessity for $MXL having to close the deal; how the $MXL / $SIMO situation compares to Twitter case

[31:14] Likely outcome for $SIMO if they pursue arbitration; potential outcomes for $MXL

[35:33] Understanding the difference between "Specific Performance" vs "Expectation Damages" and does breaking these deals set certain precedents?

[40:03] What is the material adverse event $MXL is referring that $SIMO experienced

[45:55] $SIMO fundamentals

[53:04] What $SIMO is seeing in the 2nd half and how their business may perform going forward; Mordechai's 3 year outlook

[1:00:23] What Mordechai thinks earnings for $SIMO looks like in a mid-cycle, normalized environment

[1:07:42] Is $SIMO a seller again or $MXL offer such a big premium, that $SIMO has to take it?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the pod to discuss his thesis on Credit Agricole S.A. CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates).

For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: https://arbiterpartners.net/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] Overview of Credit Agricole S.A. and CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates)

[9:56] Dividend yield on these CCIs

[16:51] Value catalyst - Eureka transaction

[23:53] Credit Agricole vulnerabilities, CCI clean-up + historical examples of buyouts of these CCIs

[30:20] What does the CCI buybacks look like

[32:25] CCIs' risks / bear case

[36:46] French regional bank risk / what would happen if Credit Agricole blew up (systemic risk)

[41:58] Resources to research CCIs

[44:17] Final thoughts on Credit Agricole and CCIs

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come back on the pod to discuss their thesis on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP).

For more on the KDP thesis, see:

Half Moon Capital KDP Q2’23 Investment Thesis Update_8.1.23

Half Moon Capital KDP Investment Thesis_July 2023

For more information about Half Moon Capital, please visit: https://halfmooncapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:25] Half Moon Capital's Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. $KDP thesis

[5:09] Fundamental growth drivers; what market is missing on the coffee side of the business

[10:01] $KDP U.S. beverage business, brands, trends

[17:08] $KDP valuation

[24:27] Recent insider activity

[27:43] International business

[31:54] Bottling aspect of the $KDP thesis

[36:38] Bud Light PR

[38:37] $KDP inflection point; sale-leasebacks

[42:08] $KDP earnings, expectations for the year

[45:12] Update on Oxford thesis $OXM

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Zack Buckley, Managing Partner at Buckley Capital Partners, joins Yet Another Value Podcast for the second time to provide an update on his Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE: XPOF) thesis since he was last on the podcast and following the Fuzzy Panda short report on the company.

For more information about Buckley Capital Partners, please visit: https://buckleycapitalpartners.com/

Zack's first appearance on YAVP discussing $XPOF: https://youtu.be/listaT3Bx6Q

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:35] What happened to $XPOF following the short report is released

[3:57] $XPOF short report details - first allegation; Tony's first venture, Interactive Solutions

[10:20] $XPOF short report details - second allegation; LA Boxing venture

[12:16] $XPOF short report details - third allegation; 2015 incident

[14:33] CEO is a loose cannon or are these just one-offs?

[15:33] $XPOF short report details - addressing culture of sexual harassment

[19:02] $XPOF short report details - economics of the business and franchisees

[23:47] $XPOF franchisee transfer rates / understanding franchise network industry norms

[29:34] $XPOF billing practices and BBB complaints

[33:28] $XPOF financial covenants

[34:30] $XPOF fair valuation

[37:33] $XPOF capital allocation

[42:52] Upcoming $XPOF catalysts

[47:08] What Zack hopes to see at the $XPOF investor day

[48:25] Zack's $XPOF differential insights gained from talking with franchisees

[53:14] $XPOF final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this July 2023 edition, Chris provides the latest takes on the Activision / Microsoft deal following the judge's ruling, Silicon Motion $SIMO / MaxLinear $MXL deal, Liquidia $LQDA and Burford $BUR.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:42] Updated take on Activision / Microsoft deal following the judge's ruling

[16:18] Silicon Motion $SIMO / MaxLinear $MXL Deal

[28:19] Liquidia $LQDA

[33:11] Burford $BUR

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Our podcast sponsor, Stream by Alphasense, connected us with Daniel Payne, Senior Fellow at the International Congress of Blockchain Legal Advisors, to discuss the stakes at play in the SEC vs. Coinbase $COIN case. International Congress of Blockchain Legal Advisors Website: https://icbla.legal/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:08] Daniel Payne quick background

[4:23] SEC vs. Coinbase $COIN - high level overview of the case

[8:45] What are the stakes the SEC is playing for here?

[11:11] $COIN response to the SEC

[18:09] $COIN on the regulatory uncertainty

[22:57] Ripple decision and how this impacts the $COIN case

[29:51] Congress working towards legislation of crypto and how that affects $COIN case

[32:57] $COIN's S-1 Defense

[36:43] Two allegations the SEC is leveling against $COIN

[39:55] Staking program and what the SEC is alleging about this program

[47:15] Likelihood of certain tokens becoming securities

[49:08] $COIN lingering liabilities from operating a commodities exchange without proper regulation?

[50:44] SEC argument on $COIN's internal Howey Test for allowing various tokens to trade on their platform

[53:04] SEC vs. $COIN case timing and final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, joins Yet Another Value Podcast today to share his thesis on Airtel Africa Plc (LSE: AAF), a leading provider of telecommunications and mobile money services, with a presence in 14 countries in Africa, primarily in East Africa and Central and West Africa.

For more information about Bireme Capital, please visit: https://www.biremecapital.com/

Evan's Tweet thread on Airtel Africa: https://twitter.com/evantindell/status/1666503901229580291

Evan's blog post on his Airtel Africa thesis: https://www.biremecapital.com/cio-corner/airtel-africa

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:57] What is Airtel Africa $AAF.L and why is it interesting?

[5:55] $AAF.L mobile money business

[11:17] Spin-off IPO of mobile money business

[12:47] $AAF.L risks

[15:53] $AAF.L current valuation[20:15] Currency risk

[24:04] $AAF.L Political risk / history of nationalization / tax on mobile payments

[34:20] $AAF.L business model risk (being the T-Mobile in their markets

[37:37] Airtel Africa vs. MTN Group

[40:23] $AAF.L controlling shareholder - Bharti Airtel

[45:47] Understanding emerging market economies and price sensitivity amongst consumers

[48:56] $AAF.L product diversification risk

[55:33] $AAF.L "no one cares" valuation risk

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/