Yet Another Value Podcast

Ian Bezek from Ian's Insider Corner discusses the most interesting event thesis I've seen this year: buying RenRen (RENN) into their legal battle over the OPI assets.

Ian's original RenRen write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406707-renren-shareholders-claim-huge-sofi-stake-via-little-noticed-legal-fight
Ian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/irbezek

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 RenRen Overview
2:25 How Ian discovered RenRen
3:50 OPI transaction background
6:40 Discussing OPI's valuation
8:15 Oasis (the lead plaintiff) and the attempt to reclaim value
9:45 Laying out the event path
11:45 Who would pay if Oasis / minority shareholders win?
16:05 What is the legal precedent here?
18:35 Quantifying the upside
21:50 If we win, what happens to RENN minority shareholders?
23:55 How SoFi getting adding as defendant changes the lawsuit
29:05 Does Chamath's history at CLOV impact the timing here?
32:00 Could RENN go into bankruptcy to void the lawsuits?
34:10 Valuing RENN's other assets
36:15 Closing thoughts

Francisco Olivera, founder of Arevilo Capital, discusses his newest investment in Roblox (RBLX). He covers his vision for the company, why he thinks it's more of a platform than a single game, and how he thinks the company will evolve over time.

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Roblox Overview
4:25 Comping Roblox to Minecraft and World of Warcraft
7:00 Defining the Roblox business model
11:35 Roblox valuation versus other game companies
18:45 Risk from Roblox's user base
26:25 Sustainability of Roblox's user base
29:38 Growing Roblox's DAU
34:00 Thinking about Roblox's COVID boost
37:00 Content moderation risk
42:00 Upside from Robux or messaging
49:10 Breaking down long term margins
52:40 Roblox's management team
57:15 Capital allocation going forward
59:55 Laying out a reasonable bull case
1:05:45 Quick Falcon and Winter Soldier catch up

Eugene Robin and Andrew Leaf from Cove Street discuss their investment in Viemed. Viemed targets organic growth rates over 30%, yet the company only trades for ~15x free cash flow. Andrew and Eugene lay out their case for why the market is wrong on this one, including why VMD's business model is advantaged versus their competitors and why they aren't scare of a Medicare cut in the near to medium term.

Cove Street's first podcast appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU​

Chapters
0:00​ Intro
1:10​ Viemed overview
4:30​ Typical use case for VMD's ventilators
7:35​ Discussion of COPD market
12:35​ How VMD's business model is different than peers
24:20​ Why is the market valuing a 30% organic growth business at 15x free cash flow?
33:20​ Medicare cut risks and what happened in 2016
39:10​ VMD's acquisition potential
42:00​ VMD's moat with hiring therapists
47:00​ Discussing VMD's bad debt expense
50:00​ COVID's impact on VMD
53:30​ Cove Street's price target
59:40​ Parting thoughts

Adam Wilk, founder and portfolio manager at Greystone Capital, discusses his investment thesis in Liberated Syndication (LSYN). Key topics include why the company would make an attractive acquisition target, how Libsyn can grow in a competitive environment, and potential upside from a lawsuit that could cancel ~30% of LSYN's shares overnight.

Adam's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/AKWilk
Adam's LSYN thesis on seeking alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416747-liberated-syndication-update-and-favorable-developments 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Libsyn Overview
11:10 Libsyn Valuation
12:55 Libsyn vs. Competitors
19:35 Is Libsyn losing market share?
23:10 Comping Libsyn to Dropbox
29:10 The hunt for a new CEO
37:30 Could Spotify dominate podcast hosting like YouTube for video?
44:35 Upside from Libsyn's lawsuit to cancel shares

Yaron Naymark, founder and Portfolio Manager at 1 Main Capital, discusses his investment in RCI Hospitality (RICK). RICK is a cash flow machine, and Yaron thinks the company is set to compound free cash flow per share at an accelerated rate for years as they continue to roll up the gentlemen's club industry at very low multiples, execute on their Bombshell's growth plans, and repurchase shares when they trade at attractive prices.

Yaron's Twitter: https://twitter.com/1MainCapital
1maincapital's website: https://www.1maincapital.com/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 RICK overview
10:05 Getting comfortable with the management team
18:30 Discussing the roll up opportunity
28:15 Valuation arbitrage on acquired clubs
32:25 Bombshell's growth prospects
38:50 Breaking down the ROIC for new Bombshell's
44:15 RICK valuation and SOTP
49:25 Does ESG and regulation help or hurt RICK?
51:55 Normalized FCF for RICK
57:10 Closing thoughts and adjusting for James Harden leaving Houston

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss the proposed merger between MSGE and MSGN. To put it bluntly, the deal is a disaster with absolutely no strategic rational, and Jon walks through all of the reasons the deal doesn't make sense.

Jon's first podcast appearance: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTU
Boyar's letter to the MSGN board: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/blog/the-boyars-value-groups-letter-to-james-dolan/

If you're interested in hearing more about Jon's take on the different pieces of the MSG empire, email [email protected] and put Dolan in subject line.

Chapters
0:00 intro
1:15 MSGE / MSGN overview and background
8:30 Trying to layout the thesis behind the merger
11:25 Diving into the sports betting upside
15:15 Pushing back further on the deal bear case
20:30 Discussing majority of minority provisions
23:55 MSGE's Sphere
28:35 Dolan's capital allocation track record
32:30 Who else might bid for MSGN

Edwin Dorsey from the Bear Cave (https://thebearcave.substack.com/​) returns to discuss a high conviction long idea, Otonomo. Otonomo is a "leading platform and marketplace for vehicle data" and is going public through a SPAC merger with SAII (will trade under ONTO post-deal). Edwin thinks the opportunity for the company is enormous, and if they successfully execute they could be a multi-bagger.

Chapters
0:00​ Intro
4:00​ Otonomo overview
6:15​ How can Otonomo make money selling car data?
11:30​ How does OEM partnerships work?
14:00​ Why will automotive data be a winner take all market?
25:25​ How Otonomo could undercut Root and Metromile
29:00​ Discussing the Otonomo management team
33:50​ The SAII PIPE group: good or bad?
35:50​ Edwin's take on the SAII SPAC group
38:00​ How big is Otonomo's TAM?
40:25​ How the current SPAC market could create opportunity
43:00​ Warrants are risky; discussing SAII risk/reward
49:30​ What pushback has Edwin gotten on the idea?

Micro-cap investor Jeff Moore (who also writes http://ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/​) discusses his bull case for Thryv (THRY). Thryv is an interesting company: their core value comes from their legacy Yellow Pages business, and they're using the cash flows and relationships from that melting ice cube to start up a SMB SaaS service. Jeff argues there's huge upside as the company taps their customer base, acquires smaller competitors, and the market starts to recognize the value of their SaaS business.

Chapters
0:00​ Intro
1:20​ Thryv Overview
6:15​ Thryv Software discussion
12:25​ Why is a SaaS business attached to a Yellow Page company?
14:30​ Why is churn so high?
20:05​ Who are Thryv's competitors
22:00​ Don't all yellow page companies go bankrupt?
28:30​ Walking through Thryv's SOTP
40:25​ Discussing Thryv's management team
45:45​ What to make of the CEO buying stock while largest shareholders sell down?

SHOW LESS

Eugene Robin and Ben Claremon from Cove Street Capital discuss the battleground stock Viasat (VSAT). They discuss the biggest misperception among bears, why they think VSAT's government business is a hidden gem, and how the risk from Elon Musk's SpaceX (and other burgeoning competitors) is overblown.

Some relevant links:
Cove Street's March 2020 Viasat deck: http://covestreetcapital.com/eugene-robin-discusses-viasat-on-the-valuewalk-podcast/
Kerrisdale's short report: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/viasat-inc-vsat/
Cove Street's Kerrisdale rebuttal: http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Satellite-Potshots-ViaSat.pdf 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 Viasat overview
8:15 Residential Broadband: the biggest VSAT misperception
15:45 Is Cove Street too close to VSAT?
25:00 Could a big increase in capacity create issues?
31:00 VSAT's all-in cost advantage and the SpaceX risk
36:45 VSAT's hidden jewel: the Government business
43:50 "Stock price bro" and capital allocation bear case
52:50 Why GEO can compete with LEO
1:06:00 Ben's quick run through of lingering points
1:17:00 Quantifying a reasonable bull case

Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas ( https://mbi-deepdives.com/ ​) returns to the podcast to discuss his latest research pick, Autodesk (ADSK). The company successfully did the transition from a licensed to subscription business model, and with that transition behind them, Abdullah discusses why the future is brighter than ever and why Autodesk will benefit from an infrastructure boom.

Abdullah / MBI's first appearance on ETSY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muhNdYcNHgk 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Being a generalist versus expert
7:15 Autodesk overview
17:30 Breaking down Autodesk's different segments
26:10 Discussing some more Autodesk bear points
35:50 Can Autodesk use their distribution to launch new products?
40:45 Analyzing ADSK's CEO and their LT targets
53:35 Noncompliant user opportunity
1:02:20 Valuation discussion