Yet Another Value Podcast

Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis. 

Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Origin overview
4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative
6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials
9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?
11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up
14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength
18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?
20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology
25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price
27:50 Construction cost risk
32:25 Various upside and downside risks
35:00 Origin's financing plans
39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook
41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?
46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals
55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye
58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention
1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention

Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.

Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.

*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.

Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...

My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 GreenFirst overview and background
6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?
7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management
13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*
17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe
20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions
22:50 Betting on great management teams
28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview
37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices
41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?
44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?
49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?
56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens
1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)
1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals
1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?

Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.

Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi 
Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_sean
My notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 What is EXPI?
8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives
10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)
18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?
22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities
26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats
29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?
35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?
45:50 Sean's closing thoughts

Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.

Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016
My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline
4:40 PFMT business overview
15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals
18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts
27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?
32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard
35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook
37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?
40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?
44:20 PFMT's capital allocation
47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?
49:15 What could kill this investment?
53:10 Closing thoughts

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Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.

Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Burford Overview
6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?
13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?
19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?
23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?
37:10 How do you value Burford?
42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments
49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management
54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case
58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years
1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?
1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team
1:23:45 Closing thoughts

Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.

Adam's email: [email protected]

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TRIP Overview
6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?
13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win
22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?
25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences
33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management
38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP
40:30 TRIP valuation
43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward
50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor
55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?

Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.

Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminara
OppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=exclude

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 OppFi overview
9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart
16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?
19:00 OppFi's valuation
22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?
27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone
29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF
35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?
40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February
45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?
49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate
50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation
55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?
58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia
1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts
1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.

Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Cato Overview
5:45 Cato's target demographics
8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)
13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently
15:30 Discussing CATO's management
22:05 Valuing CATO's land
27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?
37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO

Brian Mosoff, CEO of Ether Capital Corp, does a deep dive into the investment case for Ethereum. Key topics include how Ethereum is different than Bitcoin, how proof of stake and EIP-1559 will improve the Ethereum ecosystem, and why Ethereum today looks like investing in computer operating systems in the early 80s.

Disclosure: nothing in here is investing advice. Listeners/viewers should remember crypto is extremely risky and do their own work!

Brian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/brianmosoff
Ether Capital's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ethcap

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Brian's background
2:40 How is Ethereum different than Bitcoin?
10:55 Ether as the operating system / highway for Web 3.0
16:20 Who are the "operating system" competitors for Ether
23:05 How ether's transaction fee lead creates a big network effect
27:50 How do you value Ethereum?
30:50 Comparing crypto today to the dotcom bubble
37:00 Can you value Ether of their fee run rate?
47:00 Discussing staking and proof of stake
58:50 What is EIP-1559?
1:11:45 What is the risk to staking?
1:13:50 Brian's closing thoughts

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Randy Baron, Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Associates, gives an overview of the Synthetic Biology space. Randy thinks "the 21st century is going to be a century of biology," and he discusses all the ways synthetic biology can change the world and why he thinks Amyris (AMRS) could be the biggest winner given their head start in the space.

Randy's Barron's write up on Synthetic Biology: https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-investors-guide-to-the-promise-of-synthetic-biology-51623275429
My thread with AMRS management quotes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407372814466826240 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Synthetic Biology Overview
9:00 Amyris's founding treating malaria
12:30 Squalene oil overview
19:00 What's the barrier to entry for synthetic biology?
23:45 Why is scaling so hard in synthetic biology?
25:05 Comping AMRS to ZY (Zymergen)
31:45 Discussing the value of AMRS's scaled molecules and pipeline
35:00 AMRS's consumer brands
37:20 Is having consumer brands and a research arm too good to be true?
39:20 How AMRS could improve vaccines
44:55 AMRS's zero calorie product, Purecane
49:50 Quantifying the value of AMRS's different parts (SOTP)
1:01:00 Discussing management and John Doerr's involvement
1:06:00 How do you evaluate AMRS's CEO?
1:11:45 Final thoughts