Yet Another Value Podcast

Randy Baron, one of the most popular YAVP guests, returns to discuss his investment thesis on Renalytix (RNLX). Randy sees similarities between RNLX and EXAS, which was a controversial stock that has rocketed over the last few years as the company's diagnostic product gained momentum. While not without risk, Randy thinks RNLX could be even bigger if successful as they are attacking the much larger Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market, and he discusses all of the signs he sees that the company is about to inflect.

Randy's first appearance on Amyris (AMRS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKxUHfCoQQ&t=1s

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 RNLX overview
8:55 Where does RNLX fall into CKD?
14:00 Why now is the time for RNLX in CKD
20:40 How RNLX can operate even without MICT
24:30 More on RNLX and Medicare
25:30 When will RNLX get FDA approval?
33:40 What if RNLX doesn't get FDA approval?
37:30 RNLX's CEO and founder, James McCullough
43:40 Why is RNLX so under the radar?
46:40 Comping RNLX to Theranos
50:00 Randy's closing thoughts

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).

AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!

Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Extra Disclosures
3:10 AMPY Overview
6:25 Diving into the spill
9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent
15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?
20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?
22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment
22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity
28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?
30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?
33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-10
39:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?
44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault
46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?
50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?
56:00 Tim's closing thoughts

Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.

Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at...
My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 ATTO overview
3:15 ATTO's ownership history
7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell
9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive
13:50 Discussing valuation
15:30 ATTO's operating momentum
18:30 What does ATTO do?
22:30 How does ATTO compete with?
24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?
28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?
33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?
37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract
40:20 Comping peer multiples
43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?
46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.
50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk
52:55 Closing thoughts

Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.

Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU
Ben's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Lumen Overview
5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?
13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives
19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?
25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation
35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?
37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts
39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?
47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)
54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)
1:03:25 Closing thoughts

Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports.

The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...
My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Clear Overview
3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?
4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?
9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?
11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession
13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating
21:10 How Clear calculates their member count
23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?
27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles
29:55 Clear's growth opportunities
33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?
34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?
36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?
41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners
43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?
48:30 Closing thoughts

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.

Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20
Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMk
Thomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMA

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 AAMC overview
6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies
7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?
11:40 Bill Erbey's background
16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition
23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT
28:00 Discussing a fix and flip
34:55 Other possible deals
36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit
41:55 AAMC's cash burn
43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?
45:00 Closing thoughts

Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.

My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20
Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/altice
My write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stock

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:23 ATUS overview
2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 2018
4:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing
7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter
11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?
21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers
23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers
28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?
31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?
37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy
44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts
47:45 What could break the cable thesis?
56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk
58:30 Cable regulatory concerns
1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.

Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaks
Kuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 Uranium overview
2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?
5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve
7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance
10:15 Uranium's cycles since 2000
15:15 Why is the cycle happening now?
19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?
25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?
30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust
40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview
46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine
49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine
52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions
56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?
58:40 Nexgen's base case upside

SHOW LESS

Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.

Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwar
Sohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 goeasy overview and background
15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers
18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity
28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation
30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?
35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?
38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns
43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?
44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?
55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition
59;40 Jon's closing thoughts

Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.

Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel 
My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade
3:10 $GOED overview
8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded
11:00 $GOED merger / financing background
14:00 The massive stock offering discussion
17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?
20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?
24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?
27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?
31:20 GOED's rebate accounting
34:20 Capital allocation going forward
37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards
38:30 GOED management's alignment
40:05 GOED's activist potential
43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case
48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch
49:30 How capital light will GOED be?
52:10 Quick Tesla discussion
53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)