Yet Another Value Podcast

Rich Howe, founder of stock spinoff investing, walks through the bull case for NXDT. NXDT is a closed end fund trading at a huge discount to NAV; the fund is planning to transition to a REIT and Rich thinks that makes the stock very catalyst rich. A related company, NXRT, pursued a similar move ~6 years ago and their stock has gone up ~6x since.

You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
My thread on NXDT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1488504533709991943?s=20&t=1i5ngJavxgKCHeNtsTWz1A
Rich's twitter: https://twitter.com/stockspinoffss
Stock Spinoff Investing: https://stockspinoffinvesting.com/premium/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 NXDT overview
6:55 Insider buying
9:45 NXRT parallels
12:00 NXDT's discount to NAV
13:10 NXDT's level 3 assets and their valuation
16:45 Vinebrook homes, one of NXDT's holdings
24:30 Why has NXDT's NAV discount widened?
27:10 NXDT investing into controlled entities
31:30 What is NXDT's post-REIT strategy?
34:30 Why is it taking so long to switch to a REIT?
37:50 Will NXDT buyback shares?
40:00 NXDT's fees
43:30 Post-REIT dividend policy
47:55 Closing NXDT thoughts
50:00 Rich's favorite recent spin: JXN
55:00 BHC: the spin Rich is looking forward to the most

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Investments, discusses his thoughts on the oil market and why he thinks energy prices are going much higher. Then he dives into his thesis for Journey Energy (JOY CN in Canada), a micro cap Canadian company that he thinks is dramatically undervalued.

You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
Josh's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 How Josh is thinking about the oil market today
6:30 When do you know oil is high enough?
10:25 Why aren't we seeing a big capex / opex ramp up from oil companies?
15:45 OPEC's lack of incremental capacity
19:35 Is calling for higher oil Big Short 2.0?
24:50 Why the oil market today is not the oil market from 2014
28:50 Small technical difficulty!
31:10 Why $100+ oil won't sap demand
34:30 What do energy specialists look for that generalists miss?
37:15 Do generalists lean towards worse assets than specialists?
40:00 Journey Energy overview
45:20 Breaking down Journey's SOTP
48:15 Journey's growth and decline profile
50:00 How are Journey's base assets positioned?
53:30 What oil and gas price is baked into Journey currently?
54:10 Journey's power plant initiative
57:20 What type of power is Journey's power plant?
58:50 Journey's Asset Retirement Obligations
1:06:35 Closing thoughts on Journey

Keith Smith, Portfolio Manager at Bonhoeffer Capital, discusses his thesis for Millicom ($TIGO). TIGO is trading at a super low multiple and a recent deal that the CEO described as a "no brainer" will result in a rights offering for TIGO, which could set the stock up as a special situation as well. Keith breaks down why he likes TIGO versus other telecom stocks, why he thinks the stock is so cheap, and the hidden value potential at TIGO money.

You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....
My notes on TIGO: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Keith's twitter: https://twitter.com/Bonhoeffer_KDS

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 TIGO overview
4:30 How TIGO's ownership culture sets them apart
8:30 TIGO background
11:50 More on TIGO's culture and their CHTR like model
15:55 Why TIGO over other telecoms like LILAK or LUMN?
23:30 TIGO money, TIGO's big fintech call option
31:00 Discussing TIGO's largest market, Guatemala
36:00 Breaking down TIGO's rights offering
43:00 Is TIGO's equity focused culture a red flag?
46:05 A mini-rant on Liberty's management compensation
48:40 Could TIGO be a perennial value trap?
54:20 LILAK's 2019 bid for TIGO: value marker or red flag?
58:30 Keith's closing TIGO thoughts
1:02:30 Bonus discussion on broadcasters like NXST

Vadim Perelman goes through his thesis on Basic-Fit (BFIT) and why he thinks it could be a ~10x in ~10 years. Key topics include a detailed walk through the unit economics and why competitors won’t be able to open new gyms once the company “fortresses” their markets.

My notes on BFIT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Vadim's BFIT write up: https://punchcardstocks.substack.com/...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 BFIT intro
6:55 The key BFIT question: is 30%+ ROIC sustainable for gyms
15:00 Why winning the "land grab" precludes competitors in local markets
20:55 How BFIT's scale gives them a cost advantage
25:00 Quick mentions of BFIT's marketing and rent advantages
30:00 Comping BFIT's costs to UK low cost peers
32:50 Why aren't we seeing a faster land share grab by competitors?
40:15 Why isn't BFIT pursuing a franchise model?
46:55 Could BFIT's ROIC go higher over time as penetration goes up?
51:35 What bear cases does Vadim worry about?
56:35 Store aging risk / underinvesting in MCX
59:45 How BFIT uses their scale to bring down employee costs and create a moat
1:05:15 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth discusses his best idea for 2022, RENN. RENN was on a previous podcast pitched by Ian Bezek as a legal play; since then, RENN settled with minority shareholders for a record payout. However, in December, RENN's shares sold off massively as a judge rejected their proposed settlement with minority shareholders and ruled the payout should instead go to former shareholders; Chris explains why he thinks that ruling is wrong and likely to be overturned.

Podcast with Ian Bezek on RENN from April 2021: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's article on RENN: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478529-renren-is-so-bad-its-good 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 RENN background
4:20 What's happened since the last RENN podcast
8:20 The settlement announcement in October
12:35 What happens in December / why the stock craters
19:45 Why are current shareholders appealing the judge's ruling?
24:00 What does a derivative suit mean and why is that important?
30:00 Were there any precedents for former shareholders getting the settlement payout?
35:30 Discussing the unique minority shareholder only payout
38:50 Could the settlement be recut to pay directly to the company?
44:50 What does the timeline going forward look like?
46:30 What happens to the "excess legal fees"?
54:30 Why a quick decision on the appeal could be good
57:35 What odds does Chris give for the appeal winning?
1:00:10 Bear push back: The Sprint / TMUS precedent
1:05:40 Closing thoughts

SHOW LESS

In Part 2 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin discusses his thesis for GLNG, including why the company trades at a huge discount to its SOTP and why an upcoming spin can delever the core business and serve as a catalyst for the company.

Part 1 of the podcast on FTAI: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/podcast-87-jacob-rubin-is-flying
My notes on GLNG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1471134280906682371?s=20
Jacob's research on GLNG: http://philosophycap.com/research.html

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 GLNG overview
5:55 GLNG's different pieces
10:30 Discussing GLNG debt and convert maturity
13:10 Focusing on the main value driver, FLNG
22:00 GLNG's growth asset, Gimi
24:45 GLNG SOTP math
27:05 Why is the market sleeping on the current environment for GLNG?
29:45 Capital allocation and GLNG's lack of share buyback
34:55 Historical issues with shipping in general
37:30 Closing thoughts

In Part 1 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin returns to the podcast. We start by wrapping up his prior podcast appearance on ESGC, and then we move into discussing FTAI and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued and an upcoming spinoff could unlock significant value.

My FTAI notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1470841498048634885?s=20
Jacob's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1366760857590521861?s=20
Jacob's research on FTAI: http://philosophycap.com/research.html

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 ESGC follow up
10:15 FTAI overview
16:00 How a spinoff and eliminating K-1's could catalyze FTAI
22:05 FTAI's aerospace segment
32:05 The upside from FTAI's parts manufacturing
36:55 Is engine leasing really a good business?
45:30 Discussing FTAI's external management structure
50:30 FTAI's infrastructure segment
52:05 FTAI's management team
54:20 More on FTAI's different infrastructure assets

Kuppy comes on the show to discuss his recent activism at LEE and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued.

My notes on LEE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Kuppy's LEE thesis: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...
KEDM: https://www.kedm.com/what-is-kedm/


Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 LEE Overview
7:55 Why does Kuppy think Alden's LEE offer is so undervalued?
12:35 Why does small town, local news offer a moat?
17:30 Is LEE's digital growth real or is it just small base effect?
20:20 Can the LEE team execute the growth / digital opportunity?
30:15 Why did Berkshire sell their newspaper to LEE if the growth is so attractive?
35:40 Is TownNews a hidden gem?
40:00 What other levers can LEE pull to juice growth?
42:15 Online gambling upside for newspapers
44:30 Valuing LEE"s digital side
51:20 Why are papers like Tribune selling if the outlook for digital is so good?
53:35 Closing thoughts

Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss his belief that MSGE is a  cheap stock. Key topics include how to look at the Sphere, why the Dolans might not be as bad as you think, and why he thinks the company will gush free cash flow once the Sphere is completed.

My notes on MSGE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1469002333908606979?s=20
Chris's website / presentation on MSGE: https://msgeisacheapstock.com/presi.html
My podcast with Jon Boyar on the awful MSGE / MSGN deal: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1379040448149356546?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 MSGE overview
4:45 The elephant in the room: should MSGE get a "Dolan Discount?"
9:30 Discussing The Sphere
14:25 The cost escalation history of the Sphere
27:10 What's the outlook for RSNs in general and MSGN in particular?
30:30 Why was combining MSGN with MSGE the right move?
33:30 Valuing MSGN given the turmoil in RSNs
36:55 How does MSGN transition to a D2C world?
41:50 More on MSGN's value
50:05 What does the income statement look like as MSGN transitions?
59:55 Valuing Tao and The Rockettes
1:03:20 Valuing the Garden
1:08:35 Closing thoughts and a quick SOTP

Sleepwell Capital and Enlightened Capital discuss their thesis for Ally $ALLY. Ally trades for just over book value despite posting ROEs well in excess of their cost of capital; Sleep and Enlightened both believe their valuable deposit franchise, reasonable valuation, and share repurchase program will combine to produce attractive returns for shareholders over the next few years.

My notes on ALLY: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1467960317242134537?s=20
Enlightened's twitter: https://twitter.com/Cultivatewealth
Sleep's twitter: https://twitter.com/SleepwellCap
Enlightened's Ally write up: https://enlightenedcapital.substack.com/p/ally-financial-ally-investment-analysis
TSOH Ally write up: https://thescienceofhitting.com/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 ALLY overview and history
5:00 Laying out the ALLY bull thesis
8:25 The ALLY valuation case
9:35 How good is ALLY's deposit base?
14:55 Does ALLY have a moat on their lending standards?
20:10 Discussing ALLY's strategic relationship
24:10 What is the market pricing into ALLY's stock?
28:20 ALLY's capital allocation (acquisitions and share repurchases)
33:15 Comping ALLY to a neo-bank
35:50 Ally's insider incentive and share ownership (or lack thereof)
38:45 Discussing Ally's exec comp and potential misalignment
41:20 Of all the stocks in the world, why is ALLY worth buying?
48:45 The decline of car ownership and rise of EVs as a tail risk
52:20 More on what ALLY would do if auto loan demand decreased dramatically
56:20 What's the end game for ALLY?
58:45 Would ALLY be a strategic target for M&A?
1:03:20 Closing thoughts