Yet Another Value Podcast

Andrew Wagner, CIO of Wagner Road Capital Management, discusses his thesis on Copart (CPRT).

My Copart (CPRT) notes; https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1514627334464323589?s=20&t=yjNrQXKvqPrQdJZ_Z00Tdw
Andrew's post on Copart: https://www.wagnerroadcm.com/blog/2022/4/8/what-i-like-about-copart-and-how-i-found-it
Andrew's Book: The Economics of Online Games: https://amzn.to/3KNkAPn

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:05 How Andrew found CPRT
5:30 What is the market missing in CPRT?
9:20 What does CPRT do?
11:00 What is CPRT's moat?
13:25 Does CPRT's network advantages give them an edge in expansion?
15:00 Bear case #1: Valuation
16:30 Bear case #2: COVID earnings boost
18:50 Bear case #3: Why isn't CPRT buying back shares?
23:30 Why is CPRT so much better than IAA?
25:30 CPRT's management
27:45 CPRT's land ownership
33:15 CPRT's international operations
35:20 Does CPRT's moat travel internationally?
38:55 Ancillary services opportunity
43:15 CPRT's long term tailwinds from "totaled" cars
47:00 Do EVs change CPRT's economics?
49:30 Car ownership trends and CPRT

Bob Robotti, founder of Robotti Advisors, discusses his thesis on Westlake Corporation (WLK) and why he thinks "old economy" stocks are poised for a comeback.

My notes on WLK: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1513885052974899200?s=20&t=QiY-1L2H5U3GZ-S5YjGFww

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 WLK Overview
6:10 Diving into WLK's segments and products
10:45 WLK's favorable supply demand dynamics
14:40 WLK's valuation
18:55 WLK's control shareholders and family ownership
22:15 How can WLK acquire so accretively?
28:00 WLK's capital allocation
31:45 Do WLK's segments make sense together?
39:00 Why buy WLK versus peers?
41:40 BLDR and the building products distributors
44:45 Why "don't buy cyclicals at the top" might be wrong today
51:00 What happens if tech stocks stumble / Revenge of the old economy

Conor Maguire, founder of Value Sits, discusses his thesis on Wickes (WIX:LSE). Wickes is a cheap retailer that Conor thinks is both recession resistant and suffering from typical post-spin dynamics.

My notes on WIX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1511702344022609922?s=20&t=2lChWyeIhR6HZWw938bR8Q
Conor's write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/wickes-group-plc-wixln?s=w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Wickes Overview
5:25 WIX value proposition and customer base
10:25 Amazon risk
12:00 WIX valuation
15:15 WIX and the death of retail narrative
18:10 Opportunity cost of WIX versus other retailers
20:45 Spin-off dynamics
21:55 Are the spin-off dynamics real?
24:55 Does being independent accelerate WIX growth?
28:05 The economics of store refits
31:25 Management incentives
34:05 WIX downside protection
35:05 Do you read anything into WIX installer poor reviews?
39:35 WIX Trade Pro side
42:15 WIX digital sales
44:15 Upcoming de-merger costs
48:10 Other situations on Conor's radar
49:10 Discussing DOLE
51:20 Kenmare Resources

Swen Lorenz, founder of https://www.undervalued-shares.com, discusses his thesis on IWG. IWG owns a variety of co-working brands that compete with WeWork, and Swen believes IWG's scale, cheap valuation, and variety of catalysts makes them a terrific value investment.

Note: We had some connectivity issues on Swen's side during the podcast; I tried to edit the best I could but ultimately it was either release as is or not at all! Hopefully it's not too much of a bother!

My IWG Notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1509521982953558024?s=20&t=qUBbtL3_y1G8geiQ4tIFdA

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 IWG Overview
3:00 IWG versus WeWork
6:00 IWG's scale
11:00 How valuable is a network for co-work spaces?
16:20 Why does IWG's multi-brand model make more sense than WeWork's one brand?
18:55 IWG's burgeoning franchise model
25:20 The recovery from COVID
29:00 IWG's pandemic performance
33:00 IWG's growth plans
36:00 IWG's tech acquisition and spin off plans
41:30 Why has IWG been hit so much harder than office-space peers?

Tim Weber, a private investor, returns to the podcast to provide an update on the $AMPY thesis and then discuss his double dog index, why it's been crushing the market so far this year, and his outlook for the dogs from here.

Twebs double dog post: https://twebs.substack.com/p/introducing-the-double-dog-index?r=f389n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&s=r

Note that there was a slight delay on Tim's end with the audio; I don't think it's a huge issue but wanted to assure you you are not going crazy if you hear a slight delay!

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 AMPY Update
12:15 AMPY going forward
19:15 The potential Eagle Ford sale and what it means of AMPY's PV-10
24:05 AMPY's "generalist risk"
26:45 Beta's California risk
30:30 AMPY closing thoughts
33:50 Discussing the double dogs index
36:30 The United Steel (X) example
42:10 What double dogs does Tim think are most attractive right now?
47:20 Does the rush into the commodity space worry Tim?
51:00 Should we be looking at broken growth instead of deep value right now?

Chris Colvin returns to the podcast to discuss why he invested in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC) and why he thinks the deal to sell HMHC to Veritas is much too cheap.

Breach Inlet's letter to HMHC: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220223005845/en/Breach-Inlet-Capital-Sends-Public-Letter-to-Board-of-Houghton-Mifflin-Harcourt
My notes on HMHC: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1503704685861273604?s=20&t=BJwJj9NIUfEf4nip2Hlf4w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 HMHC Overview
6:45 Situation Recap
9:00 Why does Chris believe this deal is too cheap?
13:05 HMHC's strange forecast and massive revision
19:35 HMHC's advisors conflict of interest
22:55 Why did management and the board chose to sell the company now?
28:00 HMHC's roll up potential
31:25 Veritas's other edtech plays
33:35 How does this play out from here?
34:05 What if the tender fails and Veritas walks away?
49:00 Did HMHC's projections undersell the stimulus money impact?
51:00 Closing thoughts

Louis Camhi provides an update on his thesis for ORGN and then walks through where he's finding opportunities in the SPAC market today.

Louis's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1428710432848613377?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 Origin Update
5:55 Origin today versus their SPAC projections
8:45 When will we start seeing unit economics for ORGN plants?
12:55 Talking about the SPAC market today
17:30 Opportunities in current SPAC IPOs
21:30 What pre-deal SPACs does Louis like currently?
23:20 What to make of companies that are flying after the deSPAC
27:30 Are pre-deal SPAC warrants attractive right now?
36:45 CND / Circle
45:40 What to make of deals like FMAC that reward shareholders for not redeeming?
49:00 SPACs with rights like BENE and ESSC

Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his recent semi-activism at FAR Ltd. FAR recently received a bid that Jeremy thinks dramatically undervalues the company, so Jeremy is pressuring the company to cut costs and aggressively return capital to shareholders.

My tweet thread on FAR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1496863885122539520?s=20&t=UK4pHbZdyRecEFP_I46_UQ

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 FAR overview
7:20 Recapping the valuation case
13:10 Acquirer optionality at FAR
16:45 FAR's historical mismanagement
23:10 What put FAR in play
31:00 Jeremy's proposal for FAR
36:45 What if management goes scorched earth here?
48:40 Closing FAR thoughts
50:15 LastMinute (LMN) discussion

Bill Chen, an institutional real estate investor, goes through his thesis for FRPH. FRPH is a conservatively managed real estate company with a great management team and a history of growing NAV and monetizing assets at opportunistic times.

You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....
My notes on FRPH: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
A rough SOTP for FRPH: https://twitter.com/RhizomePartners/s...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 FRPH overview
3:30 Discussing FRPH's management team / majority shareholder
8:00 Understanding the royalty business
14:15 Valuing the royalty business
21:20 FRPH's balance sheet and net cash
22:15 FRPH's real estate value
32:00 Pulling the SOTP together
33:45 Opportunity cost and alpha at FRPH
39:25 FRPH's history of selling assets
40:30 How is FRPH still acquiring warehouse plays?
43:00 Why FRPH versus other REITs under NAV?
47:10 FRPH versus SRG
52:00 Why isn't FRPH buying shares right now?
57:00 What keeps Bill up at night for FRPH?
1:02:30 Closing thoughts

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss his high conviction thesis for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG). SMG was a massive COVID beneficiary, and shares have sold off in kind with other COVID beneficiaries. Jon thinks the market is too pessimistic here, SMG's brands have Coke like market share, and the company has a rapidly growing "picks and shovels" cannabis business that he believes investors are basically getting for free at current prices

You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
My notes on SMG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1489600380854013952?s=20&t=c24bhjV0UhOWlZWjgULoCw
Boyar's interview w/ SMG's CEO: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/podcasts/james-hagedorn-scotts-miracle-gro-chief-executive-officer-and-chairman-of-the-board-on-the-tremendous-opportunity-in-the-cannabis-space-potentially-spinning-off-the-fast-growing-hawthorne-division/
Boyar's SMG overview: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/smg2021 
Boyar's Forgotten Forty: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/andrewwalker

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 SMG Overview
5:50 Why are SMG's brands so dominant?
9:50 Customer concentration risk for SMG
11:55 What happens to earnings as they lapse the "COVID boom"?
17:50 Discussing Hawthorne
21:30 What is Hawthorne's moat?
24:45 Federal legalization and Hawthorne's sales distribution
27:40 Why is Hawthorne's growth slowing right now?
29:45 Hawthorne's cannabis investment strategy
34:00 How SMG got into Hawthorne and look at it long term
36:20 Breaking down SMG's SOTP
40:00 The rationale for a potential Hawthorne spin
45:40 Closing SMG thoughts
48:25 Other interesting forgotten 40 names