Yet Another Value Podcast

Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.

Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com
Doug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:00 Why semis are so compelling 
4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage
6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world
11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis
15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?
21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on
31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain
39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?
44:40 Diving into RMBS
56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing
58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?
1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?
1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program
1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?
1:14:30 closing thoughts

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.

My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEw
PJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:25 BC overview
5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?
8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?
13:25 Sizing the boat market
16:20 BC's recession risk
20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue
26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples
30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?
33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality
38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership
42:30 BC's improving free cash flow
45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?
47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks
51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand
54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.

Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 T. Hasegawa overview
6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky
9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value
15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa
17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?
19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?
20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?
22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?
26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?
32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts
34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.

My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=w

This podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 Twitter overview
6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs
8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?
12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee
18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)
26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels 
30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware
35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?
38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?
42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?
46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?
50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?
53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?
1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?
1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved
1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome
1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?
1:13:00 Event path odds

Ales Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix.

Alex's first podcast appearance on Spotify: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1388122956837097482?s=20
Alex's / TSOH substack: https://thescienceofhitting.com

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:55 What's going on in media?
6:15 What is the market missing with its media bearishness?
8:45 Is media too competitive to invest in?
14:35 Why is Netflix having a problem with breakout hits?
18:30 Can you trust these companies when they say "trust us"?
20:30 Is it true that Alex is a Marvel hater?
22:30 NFLX's move into ad supported
30:05 NFLX's (and the industry's) rising churn
35:00 Why is DIS bundling when everyone else is consolidating into one product?
38:05 Why hasn't Seinfeld broken out on NFLX?
42:30 ESPN's streaming future
49:00 Can you really make a profit streaming sports?
54:15 Is Marvel fatigue real?
58:50 Disney parks
1:01:50 Opportunity cost of investing in DIS vs NFLX vs CMCSA (or something else)
1:06:35 Berkshire buying Paramount

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, discusses his bull case for Endor AG, including why competitors can't recreate their product and how they benefit from the current boom in motor sports like F1 and NASCAR.

My notes on Endor: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1526577674801520642?s=20&t=wqYSVMYKfG3kx8M9qhkB9w
Luis's MOI pitch: https://twitter.com/LuisVSanchez777/status/1524707206574321666

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Endor Overview
14:40 Where is Luis most divergent from the market on Endor?
24:15 How frequently do people upgrade?
27:30 Why isn't Endor the typical COVID beneficiary about to fall off a cliff?
36:00 How the current motor sport boom helps Endor
42:00 Endor's valuation
52:00 Endor's long term margin potential
56:00 Endor's move into lower end products
1:02:40 Luis's closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for a new monthly segment talking about the current state of the markets

My note on event driven situations; https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-rich-set-of?s=w
My note on energy companies: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/when-are-the-activists-and-pe-funds?s=w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Chris's state of the markets
11:05 KSS
16:40 The regulatory environment and its impact on deals
22:15 ATVI / MSFT
28:50 TWTR and Elon Musk
39:00 Commodity / energy stocks disconnect from strip pricing

Bill Chen makes his second podcast appearance to discuss Clipper Realty (CLPR). Clipper owns a bunch of NYC apartment buildings, and Bill thinks the current boom in apartment rentals will drive strong returns for the company going forward.

Bill's first podcast appearance: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/bill-chen-breaks-down-frphs-sotp?utm_source=url

0:00 Intro
2:05 CLPR overview
4:35 Where is Bill most differentiated on CLPR?
8:20 How does the post-COVID NYC apartment boom help CLPR?
14:15 CLPR's leverage and balance sheet
16:45 Why CLPR over SLG or another similar REIT?
20:30 Are the long term trends against NYC?
28:00 Rent control in NYC
34:50 Why do people have cable companies and their landlords?
39:30 CLPR and inflation
41:10 "Regulatory inflation" and NYC's moat
43:30 CLPR's controlling family
47:15 Discussing cap rate environment for NYC apartment
49:40 CLPR's development projects and potential value creation
53:40 The safety of CLPR
1:00:00 Bill makes me feel bad about my shoebox apartment

In this special bonus episode, Randy Baron provides updates on his prior podcast appearances on RNLX and AMRS.

Randy's appearance on GDS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1517512427071545346?s=20&t=UyPsEybQEnbnE9riOPd5yQ
Randy's appearance on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20
Randy's appearance on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:45 RNLX update
4:05 AMRS update
9:45 AMRS's November convert raise: good or bad?
15:15 Valuing AMRS's consumer brands
20:20 Should AMRS just be focusing on consumer brands?
25:15 AMRS capital needs going forward
28:40 AMRS's management comp and shareholder alignment

One of the people's favorite guests, Randy Baron, returns to the podcast to talk about his thesis for GDS. GDS is a Chinese data center company, and Randy goes in depth into the company, including why their tier 1 footprint gives them a moat, how GDS is trading at a discount to private market values, and why ADR and VIE fears may be overblown.

My notes on GDS: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1516805266565644289?s=20&t=_7FcaMp4YYgZ1S4htJXz6g
Randy's first podcast on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20
Randy's second podcast on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20
Tubes (data center book mentioned in the pod): https://amzn.to/3rKUxRq

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Data Center Overview
9:10 Chinese Data Center overview
11:20 Randy's history with GDS
17:45 GDS valuation versus private market comps
24:00 What does Randy see in GDS that the market is missing?
28:45 GDS's international expansion plans
34:00 Why does GDS's tier 1 footprint give them a moat?
39:50 GDS's M&A and growth ambitions
47:30 GDS's recent raise from Sequoia China and peer VNET's acquisition offer
52:15 The China ADR and VIE issues
58:55 Wrapping up the GDS thesis