Yet Another Value Podcast

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth.

See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdf

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 IBKR overview
6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing?
12:30 IBKR's valuation
15:15 Is IBKR more net interest or trading driven?
19:00 IBKR's focus on active traders
23:30 Does IBKR have one product risk from the bigger asset managers?
28:30 Blow up risk
38:00 International account risk and opportunity
42:45 Business to business growth
52:45 Trading account stickiness
53:35 IBKR and crypto
55:55 IBKR's founder and management team
1:00:15 Share buybacks and insider selling

Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248.

Lionel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/LionelHutz_Esq
May pod with Evan: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
August pod with Ann and Compound: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1556987816894255106?s=20&t=LEFlc2kvhXZ_M59UhEj6NQ

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 Where we are today
6:55 Dismissing CFIUS and Bot Outs
9:20 Financing and Insolvency risks overview
14:10 How could the banks pull out of financing?
21:10 How would Elon's efforts over the next three weeks impact financing outs?
26:45 Are Elon's hands too dirty at this point to use a financing out?
29:10 How would an insolvency out play out?
30:55 Does section 5.9 suggest Elon *must* make Twitter solvent at close?
33:20 Judicial Estoppel / has Elon already repped TWTR is solvent?
39:30 Piercing the veil / getting Elon to pony up all the money
45:10 What does the trial process look like if Elon doesn't close now?
48:45 What arguments and discovery get made at trial if Elon tries a financing out?
52:15 What arguments and discovery get made if Elon tries an insolvency out?
56:40 Closing timeline and the Tesla blackout window theory
58:15 Would Elon's lawyers have supported the motion to stay if they weren't planning on closing?
1:01:50 Why does Elon seem so scared of getting deposed?

Doug O’Laughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on SiTime (SITM). 

Doug's SITM write up: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/its-high-time-to-look-at-sitime

Doug's first pod appearance: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/doug-from-fabricated-knowledge-on

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 SITM overview
7:50 What is the market missing at SITM?
12:45 Near term numbers and does management have a handle on the business?
18:05 MEMS versus Quartz market size and growth
24:20 SITM's MEMS market share
27:00 Risk of insourcing MEMS
31:45 How did SITM "win" MEMS?
35:20 Apple and customer concentration
41:00 More on MEMS versus Quartz
43:40 Apple's "all-in" on MEMS
52:45 Why isn't MEMS taking share faster from Quartz?
1:00:30 SITM valuation
1:08:30 Capital allocation and insider buy

Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth.

Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/Amarginofsafety

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Zack's background
5:15 XPOF overview
8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness?
12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp
15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples
17:50 XPOF management history
20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value
22:55 Does XPOF have too many brands?
26:00 Can XPass drive customer acquisition?
29:15 What is Zack seeing in XPOF that the market is missing?
31:55 Why XPOF over other publicly traded franchises?
35:00 Is XPOF riding a post-COVID tailwind?
38:30 Franchisee unit economics
41:50 Recession risk
49:00 Has the competitive environment changed since the last recession?
54:45 Insider buying
57:00 Capital allocation and acquisitions going forward

Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners discusses his thesis on Evolus (EOLS). Evolus is a one product company. Their product, Jeuveau, is a Botox competitor exclusively focused on the cosmetics market, and Dave thinks the market is underpricing Jeuveau's strong growth potential.

Caligan's website: https://www.caliganpartners.com/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 Caligan background
8:15 EOLS Overview
13:00 What does Dave see in EOLS that the market is missing?
19:30 Why can EOLS take share versus Botox
26:00 Why is EOLS focusing only on Cosmetics
29:30 Is M&A in EOLS's future?
33:15 EOLS acquisition targets and funding one
37:30 Getting operating leverage and hitting cash flow breakeven
40:15 What happens if we go into a recession?
43:25 What does pricing look like?
47:45 Does Daxxify's approval impact the market?
52:45 Will new entrants impact pricing for tox?
57:15 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's Mind
3:10 What's happening in Antitrust
8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment
10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?
15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal
23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?
27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?
30:00 Quick TGNA discussion
31:45 Swedish Match
35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?
40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?
41:20 How FX impacts SWMA

Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).

CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelect

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 CoVest overview
5:05 OEC overview
9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?
11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black
14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?
18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?
21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?
26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?
29:35 Recycling carbon black?
32:10 Will EPA capex really end?
36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments
38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC
47:30 Why OEC over competitors
51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks
55:40 CoVest overview
59:55 Why work with CoVest
1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.

You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 PX Overview
3:30 Management fee streams
5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?
8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds
11:50 What is the market missing at PX?
15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?
18:30 Comparing PX to KKR
23:20 PX's acquisition outlook
25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?
28:15 More on PX's acquisitions
30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions
34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment
42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?
46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time
48:15 PX's management team track record
52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).

PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.

James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 PSH Overview
11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?
20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?
22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?
24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk
27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount
32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?
38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades
42:30 The interest rate swaption
46:30 PSH's current portfolio
52:30 How PSH will evolve over time
56:30 PSH's dividend
1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting

Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.

You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593

Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:45 MSG History
8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?
13:15 MSGS SOTP
15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks
21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?
24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?
29:30 MSGE spin overview
31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?
33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)
37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal
40:15 Sports betting
47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?
49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?
53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell