Yet Another Value Podcast

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.

My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198
Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6w
Bloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-t

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 DEC overview
9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers
17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?
19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies
27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)
43:55 Even more on AROs
54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?
58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article
1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?
1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?
1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.

0:00 Intro
2:10 Overview
3:45 What's happening with TWTR
26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle
45:00 Rio / TRQ

Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.

My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
Professor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLipton
Compound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:40 Overall case thoughts to date
6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?
9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?
12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case
16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?
26:00 The looming discovery fight
28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?
30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal
36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?
38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?
48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?
50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?
53:15 Elon's consent rights
55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?
56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?
58:30 A little more on mDAUs
1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation
1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap
1:08:45 Financing tail risk
1:12:15 Odds of a settlement

David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).

David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-lose

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 UNTC overview
5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process
11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers
14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?
18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?
23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?
27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?
30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment
33:30 Valuing drilling
38:15 Midstream's value
46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns
49:20 UNTC's warrants
52:40 UNTC's SOTP
1:01:00 Generalists in energy

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.

0:00 Intro
2:45 Markets Overview
4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)
8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs
10:40 CLR update and energy companies
21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s
26:10 TWTR update
28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing
35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?
40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response
46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?
52:45 TWTR wrap up

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Spectrum Brands (SPB). Spectrum is currently in the process of selling their HHI business, and whether that deal goes through or not PJ thinks the stock is too cheap given the quality of their brands / businesses.

My notes on SPB: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1547219565016453121?s=20&t=n_liDehcIwWBLmo0x51NLQ
PJ's SPB write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-hard-catalysts-to

Chapter
0:00 Intro
2:10 SPB overview
4:55 Why is SPB interesting right now?
7:30 What's going on with the HHI sale?
13:00 HSI's HSR process
17:30 What happens if the HSI deal falls through?
24:00 HPC's value
31:20 Inflation's impact on SPB
33:30 Did pets and garden benefit too much from COVID pull forward?
37:00 Are millennials a tail wind going forward?
40:20 SPB's pet brands
45:50 What drives SPB's near term earnings growth?
48:00 Is SPB underspending on ad spend?
50:00 SPB versus CENT
55:00 Capital allocation at SPB

Jeremy Raper of rapercapital.com makes his record 7th podcast appearance to discuss a host of event driven situations.

Jeremy's letter to EVO: https://rapercapital.com/2022/07/03/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-evolve-education-group/

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 What's the current environment like?
9:20 SHLX
19:00 TRQ
34:00 SAVE
43:00 VTNR
58:30 CLMT
1:19:30 Wrapping up with HRBR and FAR

Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.

Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-value

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 SOL overview
4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?
9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL
14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?
18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?
23:10 Diving into the technical gas business
25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?
29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?
33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option
38:15 SOL's home care business
43:20 SOL's emerging businesses
49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.

Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's mind
3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS
8:15 PLAN's recut
16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?
22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?
26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates
29:15 State of the energy market
32:00 CLR's take private bid
39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts
50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.

Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20
Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-w

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Tin market overview
4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?
7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?
13:25 Tin supply dynamics
20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?
24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply
30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?
35:15 Alphamin overview
41:10 Alphamin's expansion project
44:50 The strategic review process
52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend
58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal
1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?
1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?
1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?
1:16:15 Closing thoughts