Yet Another Value Podcast

By Andrew WalkerBusiness Investing

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Typical duration
51 min
per episode

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Yet Another Value Podcast episodes

February 27, 2023Yaron Naymark on IWG's value case
Yaron Naymark returns to the podcast to discuss the value case for IWG (London Listed). IWG is best known for their Regus brand, which competes with WeWork in the flex office space. Yaron thinks the market is discounting the operating leverage IWG will realize as they put COVID behind them and begin to accelerate their managed locations offering.
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:10 IWG overview

12:05 How does the current high vacancy office space impact flex

17:00 Why COVID and tech layoffs could be a tailwind for flex office demand

20:05 Why office owners can't do flex themselves

28:30 Discussing WeWork's brand versus IWG

39:15 IWG's operating leverage and current valuation

52:35 Why is it taking IWG so long to accelerate their franchise business / refranchise corporate locations

55:50 Is pitching value creation / operating leverage just a Waiting for Godot story?

1:05:00 Looking at a potential Instant sale

1:12:30 The complexities of IWG's financial reporting
1 hr 20 min
February 13, 2023Josh Young from Bison Investments discusses on Vital Energy and his energy outlook $VTLE
Josh Young, CIO of Bison, returns to the podcast to discuss what's going on in the energy markets and his recent investment thesis for Vital Energy (VTLE).
Bison's VTLE thesis: https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/vital-energy-is-deeply-discounted
Chapters
0:00 Intro

3:15 What's happened in energy stocks since Josh's last appearance

5:45 Discussing the outlook for nat gas

15:10 Josh's current outlook for oil

24:30 Is the oil market properly reflecting China's reopening

29:30 Can Russia keep up current production levels?

34:35 VTLE overview

51:00 Breaking down VTLE's assets a little further

57:35 What are the little things that energy companies do to improve operations

1:01:20 Has VTLE earned the right to pursue M&A?

1:07:00 VTLE's base case NAV valuation

1:11:30 Will private equity ever step back into the energy space?
1 hr 19 min
January 30, 2023Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets January 2023
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in January 2023 and discuss what's on his mind, including updates on AVTI, the meme stocks roaring back, and why energy stocks seem poised to continue to perform well.
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:15 What's on Chris's mind

5:20 Quick hits on ATVI, SPB, and SJR

15:00 More on ATVI

24:30 Meme stocks are back!

30:00 Continued discussion on AMC / APE

37:00 Shareholder discounts and WE's discounted desks

39:30 Energy stock performance versus energy prices over the past year

44:20 Why the world seems structurally short every commodity
52 min
January 23, 2023Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Kaspi $KSPI
Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Kaspi (KSPI). Kaspi is the dominant fintech in Kazakhstan, and Artem breaks down how it's trading for a value price despite rapid growth and how its dominance will allow it to grow into new sectors of the Kazakhstan economy.
Kaspi IPO case study from HBS: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=56825
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:30 KSPI Overview

8:15 Discussing how ingrained in Kazakhstan Kaspi is

11:20 Sizing and breaking down the payments business

24:45 How Kaspi's data helps them with consumer loans

31:30 Kaspi as a "tax" on the Kazakhstan economy

36:30 Discussing management and Kaspi capital allocation

43:40 Run on the bank risk 48:20 Kazakhstan country / GDP risk

53:00 Why hasn't KSPI succeeded outside of Kazakhstan

1:00:30 How to think about valuing KSPI

1:08:00 Framing KSPI's local currency risk
1 hr 15 min
January 19, 2023Jeremy Raper on his Serica engagement campaign (SQZ)
Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his latest "engagement campaign" at London listed Serica Energy (SQZ). In particular, he focuses on why Serica is trying to rush through their most recent deal and why shareholders should consider voting against the share issuance at the meeting next week.
Jeremy's letter to Serica: https://rapercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/open-letter-Serica-Board-1.pdf
All of Jeremy's engagement campaigns: https://rapercapital.com/engagement-campaigns/
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:30 What's happening at SQZ

8:45 SQZ's past deal rejections and timing on this deal

15:45 Why an "accretive" deal does not necessarily create value

17:30 How this deal insulates management and discourages shareholder feedback

22:05 Discussing SQZ's shareholder base

27:30 How this deal gives away a controlling stake in Serica for free

30:00 What should shareholders who don't like this deal should do

32:20 How Serica management will respond if the current vote fails

36:05 Providing an update on the coal trade

47:35 Discussing Unit Corp (UNTC)
54 min
January 09, 2023Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW
Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.
Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view
Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?

5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014

10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon

18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates

21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike

25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?

30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?

36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill

39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics

42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy

46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?

54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?

59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?
1 hr 4 min
January 06, 2023Tidewater's management on the offshore inflection $TDW
The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.
TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx
December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:50 What's different in the current cycle?

8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore

13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side?

26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise

32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion

43:00 What do day rates look like right now?

47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates?

51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different?

57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand?

59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward
1 hr 6 min
December 22, 2022Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2022
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and WLFC's proposed takeout.
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:30 What's on Chris's mind

4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022

11:20 Updating ATVI

21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities

29:45 WLFC takeout

37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout
47 min
December 19, 2022Lionel Hutz on Liquidia's patent battle $LQDA
Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR).
Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:50 LQDA overview

8:05 Diving into the patent background

16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent

19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793

21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793

28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid

37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793

43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent

53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR

59:00 LQDA's upside if they win

1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway
1 hr 21 min
December 15, 2022Mordechai Yavneh on Silicon Motion $SIMO
Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."
Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research
Chapters
0:00 Intro

2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage

6:00 More SIMO overview

11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price?

15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals

21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO

25:50 Why SIMO is taking share

31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share

34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's

40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals

45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value

52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO

57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018

1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through?

1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break
1 hr 7 min

About Yet Another Value Podcast

From the publisher's feed

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.