Who could've predicted what happened last year? We began 2020 with high hopes and a positive outlook for the Australian property market, after the lows of 2019. Then came COVID-19, which threw everything we thought that was possible right out the window. Panic ensued and the real estate market came to a halt, especially in Melbourne. But as the year progressed and restrictions were lifted, the urge to upgrade and/or buy a first home became imperative, but vendors were concerned about selling in an unpredictable market. This led to a severe lack of supply.

Now, with Q1 of 2021 behind us, the property market is thriving with historic clearance rates and FOMO rampant across the nation. 

In this annual episode, we cover the experts and property pundits who were brave or foolish enough to forecast the year that was. Who got it right and who got it wrong? Which voices potentially impacted the market, and what role did the media play amplifying their opinions and even causing panic?

We hope to answer the question: where can you get good advice during a volatile situation?

THE REPORT:https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/fool-or-forecaster

THE EXPERT’S EPISODES:Roger Montgomery - Founder of Montgomery Investment Management

• June 24, 2019: Episode 73 | Why are so many equity investors bearish about property?

Eliza Owen - Head of Residential Research at Corelogic

• Aug 19, 2019: Episode 81 | Will a crisis in confidence kill our apartment market?
• March 31, 2020: Episode 115 | The impact of new restrictions & increasing unemployment
• Aug 3, 2020: Episode 135 | Corelogic report: Pain and Gain, March quarter 2020
• Jan 18 2021: Episode 159 | Why hasn’t the property market crashed?

Louis Christopher - Founder of SQM Research

• Jan 13, 2020: Episode 102 | Research data - 2020 Boom or Bust?

Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital

• Apr 7, 2020: Episode 117 | The next Great Depression? The next Roaring 20s?

Pete Wargent - International Buyers Agent & CEO of Next Level Wealth

• April 13, 2020: Episode 118 | Current global property market: What you should know.

Martin North - Founder of Digital Finance Analytics (DFA)

• May 11, 2020: Episode 123 | To buy, or not to buy: that is the question
• Sept 28, 2020: Episode 143 | Postcode Analysis: What properties are outperforming the market

Stuart Wemyss - Financial Advisor & Author of Rules of the Lending Game & Investopoly

• June 1, 2020: Episode 126 | Lending rules & predicting the property market
• February 8, 2021: Episode 162 | Houses vs Apartments

Nicola Powell - Senior Research Analyst at Domain

• Sept 7, 2020: Episode 140 | Behavioural science of property buying

Saul Eslake - Former Chief Economist of ANZ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch

• Nov 30, 2020: Episode 152 | What does top economist say on the current economic environment

Warren Hogan - Former Chief Economist of ANZ

• July 8, 2019: Episode 75 | Is Australia heading into a recession?
• Jan 11, 2021: Episode 158 | Top economist puts Australia in the world picture.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback

https://www.amazon.com.au/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718

HOST LINKS:Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan

Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.auWork with Chris: [email protected]

Send in your questions to: [email protected]

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT: Please note that this has been transcribed by half-human-half-robot, so brace yourself for typos and the odd bit of weirdness…This episode was recorded in March, 2020.

https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/158

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.