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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

📉📈 Soybean Futures Rebound After Decline
Soybean futures have closed higher for two straight sessions following declines ahead of November First Notice Day:
Farmers have been weighing whether to price or roll their November basis contracts, leading to some market volatility.
A bounce after First Notice Day is typical, and the Jan25 contract managed to avoid retesting its August low.
Private estimates suggest that "the funds" remain net short by about 60k contracts as of yesterday’s close.

💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen in the Corn Belt
The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains:
75% of the Corn Belt is experiencing some level of drought, up from 66% last week.
This is the highest level of drought impact on corn and soybean production since 2012. 
In the High Plains, minimal rainfall and above-normal temperatures have expanded drought conditions.
🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 81%
Soybeans: 73%
Winter Wheat: 62%
Spring Wheat: 40%
Cattle: 62%

🚜 Strong US Soybean and Corn Export Sales
US export sales for soybeans and corn showed strength last week:
Soybean sales: 2.3mmt (84 million bushels), up 6% from last week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer. 
Corn sales: 2.3mmt (92 million bushels), despite a 35% weekly decline, were still 7% above the 4-week average, with unknown destinations leading purchases.
Wheat sales: 411,400mt (15 million bushels), down 23% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. 

🌱 Brazilian Crop Outlook: Record Soybean Production Expected
Rabobank and Conab have both released forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop:
Rabobank: Expects 1.5% increase in planted acres to 116 million acres, with a record crop of 167mmt, up 9.2% from last season.
Conab: Projects a slightly higher 2.8% increase in planted acres.
Despite current dry conditions slowing planting, Rabobank has not revised its production estimate. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn crop is expected to reach 125mmt, a 2.5% increase over last season.

🌞 Argentina’s Soybean Shift Amid Hot and Dry Conditions
The USDA’s office in Argentina estimates a 52mmt soybean crop, slightly higher than the USDA’s 51mmt forecast:
Argentine farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans due to concerns over stunt disease and tighter margins.
With lower production costs, soybeans are seen as a safer bet this season.
Hot and dry conditions through December could impact production, but increased soybean crush is expected due to higher production and imports.

🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Cake & Meal
The USDA reported a flash sale of 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year:
So far this year, 926,000mt of soybean cake and meal have been sold for delivery through flash sales.

🏢 US Jobless Claims Fall to Five-Month Low
US jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since May:
Earlier spikes were driven by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and a strike at Boeing.
Job cuts totaled 55,600 in October, down 24% from September. Despite this, year-to-date cuts are 3.7% higher than the same period last year.