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Jim Welsh from Macro Tides discussed the correlation between bond prices and the stock market, and how the negative correlation window is ending. He suggested that the formula of a 60/40 allocation to stocks and bonds is going to be problematic if we've entered a window of a secular bear market in bonds. Welsh also discussed the impact of rising inflation on consumers and the economy, and how the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic will be gone for most consumers by the end of September, which will lead to a slowdown in the economy. Additionally, Welsh predicted a pullback in the dollar, a weaker euro, and a rally in gold.

He believes that Treasury yields will come down over the next six months as the economy slows down due to demographic problems, low birth rates, and enormous debt needs. The S&P 500 may have one more rally before a difficult year in 2020. Welsh suggested that a buy and hold strategy using 60/40 will not be successful over the next ten to fifteen years as we deal with these big problems.

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Visit Jim's site at: https://MacroTides.com