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This is a conversation with George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War who leads a team that has been monitoring and reporting on the war in Ukraine every day for the past 3 and half years. I freely admit that I did not expect the war to last nearly as long as it has and so we talk about how long it can realistically go on, when does George expect it end and what is the most likely scenario in which that happens.

We talk about what reaching 1 million casualties actually mean for Russia, how sustainable is for Russia to keep this rate of losses, what are the main pressures on its war effort and what’s likely to break first - or why the narrative of the Russian infinite manpower pool is a myth. Or how sustainable all of this is for Ukraine and whether Ukraine can afford to fight this way for years to come.