Budget season is here… and so are the tricks. This week, Bud, Ross, and Mike pull the mask off one of the biggest haunted houses in beer distribution: supplier ABPs becoming your distributor budget.

It’s a scary pattern we see every fall — suppliers hand out pie-in-the-sky numbers, and wholesalers just roll them into their plan. Not this year.

In this episode, the crew digs into:

🍺 Why your ABP is not your budget

📉 How to build forecasts that reflect your market reality, not supplier fantasy

📊 12-month vs 3-month moving totals – how to anchor your targets in data

💬 When to blend quantitative models with “Bud Bias” – the art and math of planning

💡 How the best distributors separate forecast, budget, and execution – and how that drives real GP per CE growth

They also touch on the latest industry news — from layoffs at Molson Coors to the rise of sober-curious marketing — and what it means for your 2026 planning cycle.

If you’ve ever sat through an ABP PowerPoint and thought, “there’s no way that number came from my market,” this episode’s for you.

💬 Got a question or want to challenge our process? Hit us at [email protected]

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Halloween Banter

04:25 ABP Season vs. Real Budget Season

10:20 Forecasts, Not Fantasies

16:00 Building Budgets That Reflect Reality

21:10 Data, Bias, and the Happiness Equation

28:30 Supplier Forecasting and Partnerships

44:25 Industry News and Market Headwinds

51:00 The Future of Beer and Beyond

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About Tapped In Sales:  

Tapped In Sales is a podcast dedicated to beer distributors and beverage industry professionals who are looking to elevate their sales strategies and drive profitability. Hosted by industry experts Bud Dunn and Mike Hall, we dive deep into real-world stories, actionable insights, and the latest trends to help sales teams and managers unlock their full potential. Each episode blends data, strategy, and motivation, making complex topics easy to understand and implement.

This podcast is powered by VXP Tech – the leading Sales Strategy Management system designed for beer distributors. VXP simplifies the complexities of goal setting, variable compensation, and sales team performance, helping you master your market and grow profits, case by case.

Stay tuned for expert advice, fresh perspectives, and tools to sharpen your sales approach!

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