Liquid Assets: A Beverage Industry Podcast

In what is easily one of the most candid conversations we've had in years, Joe Davis and Michael Corrigan from KEG 1 and K1 Management Services discuss the impact of Sazerac's move into beer networks, the future of contract negotiations and margins for wine and spirit brands, the risks of a bloated portfolio to the beer wholesaler playbook, and the very difficult path ahead for mature, small, and medium-sized brands.

Time stamps:

• 01:14 – Why beer distributors are moving into wine and spirits
  • K1MS explains why beer distributors see wine and spirits as an attractive growth opportunity, driven by higher margins, selective portfolio management, and the ability to offer retailers a total beverage solution.
• 08:36 – The Sazerac effect and the future of distributor economics
  • The group discusses Sazerac's move away from traditional wine and spirits wholesalers, whether beer distributors can sustainably operate under those economics, and how supplier-distributor margin structures may evolve.
• 12:25 – Convergence, route density, and the beer distributor advantage
  • Consumer behaviour, RTDs, and retailer demand are driving convergence, while beer distributors leverage dense route networks and frequent account service as competitive advantages.
• 15:36 – Operational complexity: Warehouses, single-bottle picks, and infrastructure
  • The conversation shifts to the operational realities of handling wine and spirits portfolios, including SKU proliferation, split-case fulfilment, warehouse automation, and the lessons learned from Pine State.
• 21:20 – The power of saying no: Portfolio strategy and brand building
  • Corrigan explains why K1MS believes success depends on maintaining a focused portfolio, being selective about supplier partnerships, and avoiding the inefficiencies that come with excessive SKU counts.
• 24:21 – What industry consolidation means for small brands
  • The panel examines how smaller wine, spirits, and emerging beverage brands can survive in a more focused distribution environment, and why consumer demand ultimately determines whether brands find a route to market.
• 34:28 – Is hand selling a skill problem or a bandwidth problem?
  • The episode closes with a debate over whether wine and spirits selling requires specialised expertise or simply more time, resources, and organisational support for distributor sales teams.

Note: Time stamps and section descriptions were generated by AI.

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Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

In the first of two episodes featuring Joe Davis and Michael Corrigan, we discuss the history of KEG 1 and the formation of K1 Management Services and the work they have done to become a massive multistate operator. We focus heavily on the dynamics of M&A in US beer wholesale and the role consolidation is having on culture, diversification, and management.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

We catch up with Mark Chaplin (Southern Glazer's Wine & Spirits President, Commercial Sales) and Devyn Dugger (Senior Vice President, NY Beer Division) to discuss their recent beer-business-buying binge, focusing on the changes that they are bringing to the beer business and how they are bringing best practices from the beer business into their broader wine and spirits operations.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

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New drinks aplenty and trends always changing. Exploring culture, with the drinks we are raising. Asking a stranger, "Why did you order that thing?" These are a few of my favorite [drink] things.

Friends at a conference with gossip worth sharing. Newsletters, dailies, and podcasts worth airing. Together let's ask what all of these numbers mean. These are a few of my favorite [drink] things.

For this episode, very special guest and former co-host Jim Watson returns to discuss some oddly specific nominations for our favorite things about the beverage industry.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

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Sarah Barrett, Managing Editor at Wine & Spirits Daily, and Chris Shepard, Senior Editor at Beer Marketer's Insights, join us to debate the most impactful stories of the year so far.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

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For more than a year, alcohol sales in the on-premise (restaurants, bars, stadiums, and hotels) have outperformed sales in the off-premise (grocery, convenience, and liquor stores). On the surface, this trend contradicts many of our explanations for the industry's struggles. If people are broke, why are they spending money in the channel where alcohol costs the most? If people are spending more time alone, why are they drinking in venues driven by socialization? A mystery this big requires more intellectual firepower than RaboResearch alone can provide. So we invited two PhDs and an economist on the show to help us figure it out.

Our guests:

• Bart Watson, President & CEO, Brewers Association
• Andrew Heritage, Chief Economist, Beer Institute
• Lester Jones, Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association

Relevant time stamps: Why are on-premise sales outperforming off-premise sales? Round 1:

• 7:42 – The K-shaped economy is widening the gap between on-premise and off-premise sales: Middle/lower-income consumers feel squeezed and cut back more during at-home (off-premise) occasions, while protecting meaningful social occasions (on-premise). Higher-income consumers continue spending, widening the gap.
• 16:04 – Rising wealth is leading to an overall increase in on-premise spending: The US is getting richer over time; historically that drives more spending "away from home." As incomes rise, consumers shift toward experiences like bars/restaurants.
• 24:01 – Post-Covid socialization is normalizing: People want to reconnect after Covid. Younger consumers especially over-index in out-of-home alcohol spend, supporting on-premise demand through social experiences.
• 32:54 – Health and wellness trends are driving people to cut back on banal, at-home occasions: Consumers drink less overall, especially at home, but keep social drinking occasions. Alcohol becomes more "occasion-based," benefiting on-premise while hurting off-premise volumes.
• 42:02 – Inflation in the on-premise is massively outpacing off-premise: On-premise prices are rising faster than off-premise. Even if behavior doesn't change much, higher pricing inflates on-premise performance in dollar terms.

Round 2:

• 45:18 – Travel and experiences are rebounding: Increased travel drives on-premise consumption (restaurants, bars, concessions). Social and vacation contexts strengthen on-premise relative to at-home drinking.
• 47:24 – The on-premise has more innovation, driving increases in productivity: Restaurants and bars have innovated (tech, formats, efficiency) post-Covid, improving service and experience. Better venues lead to stronger performance versus relatively static off-premise retail.
• 52:10 – There are more women in the workforce: More women in the workforce = more income + stronger social consumption patterns. Women may drink less, but have more money to spend per serving, suggesting they may be a driver of on-premise strength.
• 57:48 – Staying at home is more stimulating than it used to be: Consumers don't have to drink because they're bored. Competing activities (cannabis, online gaming, etc.) replace at-home drinking occasions – especially for younger males – more than on-premise drinking occasions.
• 1:03:02 – Several final factors may also be contributing to the on-premise performance gap: With the last pick of the draft, Bourcard mops up some of the final potential factors behind the on-premise performance gap, including young adults living with their parents, the decline of underage drinking, and GLP-1 drugs reducing the desire for casual drinking while leaving social occasions intact.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Around 25% of US spirits sales move through control states, but how do they work? How are they different from open states, and what can suppliers do to improve their performance in these markets? In this episode we speak to leadership at the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA) about how government-run liquor businesses operate and what brands can do to better position themselves for success.

Our guests:

• Neal Insley, President & CEO, NABCA
• Buddy Buckner, General Counsel, NABCA

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

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US inflation in April reached its highest level in three years, driven in part by the war in Iran. The volume of oil flows affected by the conflict is three times larger than the disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, yet many firms – especially in the US – don't seem too concerned. According to our analysts, they should be.

Join us for an enlightening, if not light-hearted, discussion about the impact of this crisis and how it affects the economic future for the US, Europe, and the global economy.

Our guests:

• Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, RaboResearch
• Christian Lawrence, Head of Americas & Energy Market Strategy, RaboResearch
• Joe DeLaura, Senior Energy Strategist, RaboResearch

Relevant time stamps:

• 2:11 – The US-Israel campaign against Iran and the immediate energy market shock.
• 6:52 – Why markets could be underestimating the length and impact of the crisis.
• 14:02 – The macroeconomic, inflationary, and consumer impacts of higher energy prices.
• 27:04 – Implications of the Iran war for Fed policy and interest rates.
• 31:21 – How the conflict is shifting our perspectives on globalization and geopolitics.
• 44:43 – Broader macroeconomic themes: taxes, tariffs, European growth, and the economic growth outlook for the rest of the year.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

This week, we review the pleasantly robust results from global beer companies during the first quarter of 2026. More importantly, we bid adieu to a dear friend and longtime contributor, Francois Sonneville.

For those wanting to thank Francois for years of fantastic industry coverage, please reach out: [email protected].

We discuss individual company results at the following timestamps:

Heineken (7:32): Results are stable heading into a leadership transition.

AB InBev (15:44): Revenue, volumes, and EBITDA are all well ahead of expectations. RTDs, Michelob, and Busch are filling the gap left by Bud Light.

Constellation Brands (24:20): Business is stabilizing following a tough year in 2025.

Royal Unibrew (32:22): Despite strong results from a highly diversified business, the headline was the loss of the PepsiCo business in Denmark, Finland, and the Baltic states, which account for nearly one-sixth of company revenue. Carlsberg (38:40): Both volume and revenues grew, with strong performance in the UK as the integration of Britvic goes forward. The headline is the switch from Coca-Cola to PepsiCo in Denmark and Finland and taking on the Baltic states from Royal Unibrew. Molson Coors (48:20): Volume is down, but revenues are flat with improved EBITDA, though costs pressures – aluminum in particular – remain a headache.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

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Wine supplies continue to outstrip demand. Glenn Proctor of Ciatti and Jeff Bitter of Allied Grape Growers return to discuss the larger-than-(some)-expected 2025 California grape crush, the path to equilibrium in wine supply, and whether the costs of domestic production and competition from imports mean that every acre of wine grapes pulled out of production will never come back. Topics covered in this discussion:

• The results from the California Grape Crush Report, why prices from that report don't reflect the actual health of wine grape and bulk wine pricing, and why so many industry analysts dramatically underestimated the size of last year's harvest.
• What the optimal strategy for wineries and growers is and whether buyers are pulling back on contracted commitments at the expense of future stability.
• What is going to happen to all those mothballed vineyards.
• The role of imports in replacing lost acres in California and the possibility that all future incremental demand for wine volumes in the US will be met by foreign producers.

Relevant time stamps: 03:20 – The status of acreage rightsizing in California and the not-so-good fate of mothballed vineyards.

22:45 – The bulk wine market, demand, and the lack of demand for old vintage wine.

33:30 – The crush report and what it means for different regions and growers.

43:15 – The financialization of the wine industry and incentives to leave your growers out in the cold.

52:30 – Imports, the road to recovery, and the dark world the future could hold.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.