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You can access Nigel's analysis at: https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/10/the-russiaukraine-war-has-entered-a-new-phase/

This is a conversation with Nigel Gould Davies - a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and an expert on Russian politics and strategy. He’s also a former British diplomat who worked in Russian and served as UK’s ambassador to Belarus. And he’s also a brilliant analyst and recently wrote a very interesting piece in which he basically argued for two main things.

First, that because of several crucial factors that have quite dramatically changed over the recent months, the Russian strategic position and calculus has now changed as well - since Russia, according to him, no longer has time on its side and it’s becoming aware of this.

And second that as a result, Russia will inevitably become much more aggressive and confrontational and it will escalate its actions both in Ukraine and in Europe. It’s a really and though-provoking analysis and this was a chance into a lot more detail about what is happening and what it might lead to.