By Stephen P. White

If you listen to talk about generational change in the Church and you're likely to hear about shifts in Catholic practice that have become increasingly evident in recent years. Falling Mass attendance, with older Catholics attending with far greater frequency than younger Catholics. Or the interminable liturgy wars, ostensibly pitting "Spirit of Vatican II Boomers" against "Zoomer Trads."

The fiscally minded might note concern about the fact that older Catholics are disproportionately generous in their financial support of the Church compared to younger Catholics. Or how the fiscal crunch many dioceses are facing, or see coming down the pike, might affect critical ministries. Surely many Catholics are feeling the pinch from years of sagging vocations to the priesthood and religious life, a pinch that is going to get worse in most places before it gets better.

All of these are legitimate areas of concern. But the landscape outside the Church is shifting, too. I'm thinking in particular of long-term demographic shifts that will profoundly shape American life. A Church that is well-prepared for the pastoral challenges - and the evangelical opportunities - of the coming decades would do well to begin thinking about these long-term trends sooner rather than later.

Twenty-five years from now, the generation of Americans we call Millennials will have begun to retire. By 2050, the eldest Millennials will be entering their 70th year. At the same time, Generation Z will be approaching 40. The youngest Catholics born before the close of the Second Vatican Council, and the very youngest of the Baby Boomers, will be entering their late 80s. Virtually all living memory of the pre-Conciliar era will be gone.

It is likely that by 2050 (perhaps sooner, perhaps not long after) the population of the United States will be getting smaller.

Birthrates have been below replacement level for a long time. The largest factor keeping the population (and birthrates) up is, unsurprisingly, immigration. But even with significant immigration - far from a sure thing these days - our population will soon begin to shrink. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent projections (2023), over the remainder of this century, the U.S. population will level off and begin to decline.

The Census Bureau projects that, should immigration be reduced to zero, "The population. . .is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate." That's a population decline of roughly one-third between now and the end of the century. Such a zero-immigration scenario is, of course, completely unrealistic. But it illustrates how dependent America is on immigrants for maintaining even a stable population.

Under more plausible scenarios, with low or moderate levels of immigration, the Census Bureau estimates that the population of the United States will be in decline - accelerating decline - by the end of this century and possibly as soon as mid-century. A catastrophic decline of 107 million might be unrealistic, but even one-tenth of that decline would be enormously disruptive.

Immigration policy today is, to make a gross understatement, both complicated and contentious. Catholic leaders - bishops, included - have found themselves having to insist on the humane treatment of migrants while also coming to terms with legitimate, pressing concerns about the deleterious effects of massive, illegal immigration.

Still, even if political concerns about border security were miraculously resolved tomorrow, the dependence of the American economic model on a permanently growing, rather than shrinking, population suggests that immigration will remain a pressing issue - one way or another - for a long time to come.

The United States will soon have more residents over the age of 65 than under the age of 18. Social assistance programs for seniors - Social Security and Medicare, primarily - are funded through taxes on the wages of current wor...