Disagreements between the U.S. and China have the potential to reshape the long-term trajectory of the bilateral relationship. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Daniel Russel, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, on the future prospects for U.S.-China relations and the potential for significant and long-lasting structural shifts in the relationship.

A Perfect Storm in U.S.-China Relations?

The Carnegie Endowment's China in the World podcast is a series of conversations between Director Paul Haenle and Chinese and international experts on China’s foreign policy, China’s international role, and China’s relations with the world.

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In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Ian Chong, non-resident scholar at Carnegie China and Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore. The two experts discuss President Biden and Xi's upcoming meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco. The two also discuss the current state of U.S.-China relations and how the two powers are viewed from Southeast Asia as well as Dr. Chong's recent article published by Carnegie China, "Amid Contending Narratives, A Read on U.S. and PRC Messaging in Singapore." https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/08/amid-contending-narratives-read-on-u.s.-and-prc-messaging-in-singapore-pub-90942

Dr. Chong is a nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, where he examines U.S.-China dynamics in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific. Chong is also an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. He received his PhD from Princeton University in 2008 and previously taught at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research covers the intersection of international and domestic politics, with a focus on the externalities of major power competition, nationalism, regional order, security, contentious politics, and state formation. He also works on U.S.-China relations, security and order in Northeast and Southeast Asia, cross-strait relations, and Taiwan’s politics.

Xi and Biden Meet at APEC

To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using audio clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the fifth and final episode in this series, the podcast looks back on 10 years of US-China trade relations. 

US-China trade ties have undergone significant changes since the launch of the China in the World podcast. In March 2012, the United States, the EU, and Japan filed a dispute at the World Trade Organization over China’s quota on exporting rare earth metals. That same year, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached an all-time high of $315 billion. In 2015, China became the largest bilateral trade partner of the U.S., surpassing Canada for the first time. In March 2018, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, kicking off the U.S.-China trade war. After bilateral negotiations with Beijing broke down in May 2019, the Trump administration raised tariffs from 10 to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Finally, in January 2020, the “Phase one” trade deal was signed, relaxing some U.S. tariffs and requiring China to import an additional $200 billion worth of American goods for the next two years. After coming to office in January 2021, the Biden administration maintained the Section 301 tariffs on China and, at the end of 2021, U.S. officials stated that China failed to meet its commitments under the Phase 1 trade deal. In 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo travelled to China and agreed to establish working groups on commercial and financial issues. However, negotiations over structural economic issues such as subsidies, investment restrictions, and non-tariff barriers remain at a standstill. This episode helps shed light on the evolution of U.S.-China trade relations over the past 10 years.

10 Years of US-China Trade Relations

In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Huong Le Thu, non-resident fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The two discuss Dr. Le Thu’s recent Foreign Affairs article on Vietnam’s “multialignment” strategy, the recent announcement of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, China-Vietnam relations, the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, and how Southeast Asia is responding to China's Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative.

Dr. Huong Le Thu, non-resident fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Most recently, she was a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and a member of the advisory board of the Griffith Asia Institute (GAI) at Griffith University. Her research interests include Vietnam’s defense and foreign policy, Southeast Asia’s security, ASEAN regionalism, and China-Southeast Asia relations.

Vietnam’s Multialignment Strategy

Amid renewed tensions in the South China Sea, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program, about his new book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order. The two discuss Kardon’s book, China’s approach to international maritime law, the China-Philippines maritime standoff, and more. 

Isaac Kardon is a Senior Fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program. Isaac was formerly assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute, where he researched China’s maritime affairs, and taught naval officers and national security professionals about PRC foreign and security policy. Isaac’s scholarship has centered on China’s development of maritime power, with research on China’s maritime disputes and law of the sea issues, global port development, and PLA overseas basing. His new book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order (Yale, 2023), can be purchased here: https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Law-Sea-Rules-Maritime/dp/0300256477.

China’s Law of the Sea

In June, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his first visit to China since the Biden administration entered office, and in July, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Climate Envoy John Kerry travelled to China to engage in discussions with Chinese officials. As the United States and China begin to restart high-level dialogues, there continue to be many unaddressed issues in the relationship, from trade to technology. Will the two sides be able to reopen military dialogues? Can they manage tensions over Taiwan? How will the bilateral relationship evolve ahead of the 2024 U.S. election? On this live Twitter Spaces event, Paul Haenle discusses all these issues and more with Evan Medeiros, Dennis Wilder, Amanda Hsiao, and Chong Ja Ian.

A Perfect Storm in U.S.-China Relations?

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