From afar, the China-South Africa trade relationship looks amazing. Last year, the two countries sold more than $52 billion worth of goods to one another — mostly raw materials from South Africa and finished goods from China.

But when you look at the figures more closely, some real problems become evident. While trade volumes between the two countries have grown exponentially over the past 20 years, so has South Africa's trade deficit with China, which reached almost $10 billion last year.

Marvellous Ngundu, a research consultant at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, explored the problem in a recently published paper and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what can be done to balance out this "active, yet highly unequal" trading relationship.

• Institute for Security Studies: South Africa’s trade deficit dilemma with China by Marvellous Ngundu
• Bloomberg: A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World by Katia Dmitrieva, Philip Heijmans, and Prima Wirayani

X: @christiangeraud I @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

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Millions of Zambians along the Kafue River are coming to grips with the devastating environmental impact brought about by a massive acid spill from a Chinese-run copper mine. A tailings dam broke on February 18th, sending 50 million liters of toxic water into the Kafue River, killing fish, wildlife and endangering public health.

Sino-Metals, the Chinese mining company, apologized for the accident and said that it is “doing its best” to clean up the mess.

Eric, Cobus, and Geraud discuss the political implications of the spill and what’s at stake for the Chinese government if the company fails to take care of this environmental tragedy. Plus, the guys also break down a new $1.4 billion Chinese deal to refurbish the TAZARA railway and the prospects of a U.S. critical resource mining deal in the DRC.

• Associated Press: A river ‘died’ overnight in Zambia after an acidic waste spill at a Chinese-owned mine by Richard Kille and Jacob Zimba
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition Over Critical Minerals for Peace? by Christian-Géraud Neema
• Bloomberg: China to Invest $1.4 Billion to Upgrade Tanzana-Zambia Rail Line by Matthew Hill

X: @christiangeraud I @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

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During his Senate confirmation, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denounced the so-called "liberal international order" that he said was obsolete and no longer working for the United States. Since he and his boss, President Donald Trump, took office eight weeks ago, they have thoroughly upended the post-WWII global order that the U.S. itself established and led for the past 75 years.

The changes in Washington are happening so fast that it's impossible to keep up. Every day, institutions many assumed were invincible have either been closed or censured. Now, the challenges facing policymakers around the world is how to adapt to this emerging international system that is no longer anchored in Washington, D.C.

Gyude Moore, an inaugural visiting fellow at Global Neighbours and Liberia's former minister of public works, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he thinks African countries should do to thrive in a new post-American international order.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

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Southern Africa has become a focal point of geopolitical competition, with the U.S., China, and other global powers maneuvering for influence over key infrastructure projects and critical resources.

The Lobito Corridor Project, a railway and logistics initiative spanning Angola, Zambia, and the DRC, is at the center of this contest. Questions around financing, U.S. aid freezes, and China’s long-term economic strategy highlight the broader struggle for dominance in the region’s transportation and trade networks.

But where do African countries fit into this dynamic? Political analyst Marisa Lourenço joins Géraud and Cobus from Johannesburg to discuss the critical choices facing policymakers in the region that will shape Southern Africa's economic and security landscape. 

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

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In recent years, the relationship between Chinese mining companies and local communities in many African countries has been very contentious over allegations of environmental damage, a lack of transparency, and tensions with local civil society groups.

In Zimbabwe, a new initiative—the China-Africa Dialogue on Green Minerals for Responsible Investment (CADRI)—is taking a different approach. Rather than relying on confrontation, CADRI brings together civil society organizations, policymakers, and Chinese companies to push for greater accountability, transparency, and sustainable mining practices.

This week, CGSP Africa Editor Géraud Neema speaks with Obert Bore, business and human rights program lead at the Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association (ZELA), to discuss why this initiative appears to be working and what other African countries can learn from Zimbabwe's experience.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @christiangeraud

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U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West."

At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment.

The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era.

SHOW NOTES:

• Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 

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U.S. and European leaders often talk about the importance of building China-free supply chains for transition minerals and other critical resources. While, for a lot of people, that may resonate among their constituents at home, the reality is that it's not even remotely possible — at least for the foreseeable future.

China has spent the better part of two decades building an insurmountable lead in financing, extracting, and processing these resources. Using a combination of state-backed companies and foreign financial institutions, the Chinese are the pacesetters in this industry, with their rivals left far behind.

A first-of-its-kind report from the development research lab AidData at William & Mary College in the United States reveals the stunning breadth of China's global mining strategy that spans 19 countries around the world. Two of the report's authors, Brooke Escobar and Katherine Walsh, both from AidData's Chinese Development Finance Program, join Eric & Cobus to explain why China is now so far ahead of its competitors in this critical competition.

SHOW NOTES:

• AidData: Power Playbook: Beijing’s Bid to Secure Overseas Transition Minerals

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud

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When the Chinese hedge fund High-Flyer launched DeepSeek on January 20th, the global AI market for large language model (LLM) systems was turned upside down. Investors dumped nearly a trillion dollars of tech stocks in the U.S., panicked by the prospect that a cheaper, more nimbler alternative would undermine the massive investments that companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple were making in AI.

A month later, those stocks have all largely recovered. Now, as investors have had time to use DeepSeek and better understand what it can do, there's less concern that it'll displace U.S. tech giants. The focus now is on its impact on the rest of the world.

Asia Society Switzerland Fellow John Lee, a veteran Chinese technology analyst, joins Eric to explain why Chinese AI initiatives like DeepSeek along with new innovations in automotive tech are poised to take off in lower-income developing countries.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 

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The U.S.-China relationship is at a critical inflection point as Donald Trump tries to reset ties with his counterpart Xi Jinping. The U.S. President has repeatedly said he wants to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement that would, in his view, lead to a dramatic de-escalation of tensions.

Unsurprisingly, China Hawks, many in his own government, are skeptical that Trump will get what he wants from Xi. Regardless, reverberations from the U.S.-China conflict are felt far beyond the borders of these two countries, particularly in Africa, Asia, and across the Global South.

Veteran journalist Jane Perlez joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new season of her popular podcast, "Faceoff: The U.S. vs. China" and the key trends policymakers everywhere should focus on.

SHOW NOTES:

Listen to Faceoff: U.S. vs. China on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque 

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At last week's Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touted his country's 5% economic growth last year as a "benefit to the world" thanks to all of the trade it does with countries around the world.

While countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, among other regions, are no doubt selling more raw materials to China, critics contend, though, that this trade pattern isn't healthy and mostly in China's favor. 

This week, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud debate whether Chinese trade is helping or hurting developing countries and whether China's role as the world's manufacturer is also the primary reason why poor countries remain stuck at the bottom of the industrial value chain.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque 

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JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth