After a two-to-three-year hiatus following the pandemic, Chinese money is once again flowing into the African energy sector. Billions of dollars in new investment and construction contracts for power facilities were registered in the first half of the year, particularly in Nigeria, according to new data published by Griffiths University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center in Beijing.

These new contracts and investments will bolster China's already formidable presence in the continent's energy market, where Chinese-backed projects account for approximately 23 GW of installed generation capacity across at least 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – nearly 20 percent of the region’s total.

Naa Adjekai Adjei, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Africa, is examining the operational aspects of Chinese-backed power projects in Africa for a new bi-weekly series that encompasses everything from project pitching to financing and construction. Adjekai joins Eric & Cobus to explain why China's role in African energy development remains poorly understood despite its sizable presence.

SHOW NOTES:

• The China-Global South Project: Motives That Matter: The Economic and Strategic Logic Behind China’s Power Sector Engagement in Africa by Naa Adjekai Adjei
• The China-Global South Project: Inside China’s Power Play: Understanding the Institutions Behind Africa’s Energy Projects by Naa Adjekai Adjei
• The Conversation: How to negotiate infrastructure deals with China: four things African governments need to get right by Folashadé Soulé

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The "debt trap" meme claims that China is intentionally lending vast sums of money to poor developing countries in Africa, and elsewhere, with the express intent to seize physical assets in those countries when they inevitably can't repay their debts.

This fanciful narrative sounds compelling, but the problem is that there's literally no evidence from the past twenty years since China became the world's largest bilateral creditor to support the claim. It just isn't true.

The reality of how China actually secures its loans to these countries is far more complicated.

Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University, and Brad Parks, executive director of AidData, a development finance research institute at the College of William & Mary, were part of a team of experts that did an extensive forensic analysis of 620 Chinese loans spanning more than 20 years that revealed the financial methods Beijing employs to guarantee these debts.

Anna and Brad join Eric to discuss the findings from their new report, "How China Collateralizes."

SHOW NOTES:

• AidData: How China Collateralizes by Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, Christoph Trebesch
• AidData: How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments by Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, Christoph Trebesch

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A new generation of scholars is reshaping China-Africa research. More geographically diverse and digitally fluent than the field’s early pioneers of the 2000s, this cohort brings fresh perspectives and tools to the study of China’s engagement on the continent.

Yet deep structural barriers persist. African and Chinese researchers still face sizable obstacles in shaping research agendas, as U.S. and European institutions continue to dominate decisions about what gets studied, who receives funding, and which voices are amplified.

Solange Guo Chatelard, a research associate at the Université Libre de Bruxelles and the new executive director of the Chinese in Africa/Africans in China research network, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the current state of China-Africa scholarship and where it's going.

SHOW NOTES:

• The China-Global South Project: A Display of Power, Not Partnership, in Washington by C. Géraud Neema
• The Chinese in Africa/Africans in China Research Network: https://ca-ac.org/

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While the U.S., India, and countries in the Persian Gulf are all moving quickly to establish new critical mineral supply chains, the European Union is struggling to follow suit, particularly in Africa. The EU currently lacks a cohesive policy framework that would bolster mining companies, support partner countries, and encourage the development of a mineral processing sector that can lessen Europe's current dependence on China.

To do this, the EU should follow China's model in Africa, where it paired extraction with the development of vital infrastructure, according to a new commentary from the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM).

The authors, Poorva Karkare and Karim Karaki, join Eric & Géraud from Brussels to explain why the EU should strive for strategic complementarity rather than competition with China in Africa.

SHOW NOTES:

• ECDPM: The EU’s playbook for African minerals amid China’s dominance by Poorva Karkare and Karim Karaki
• AFRICA POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE: The tumultuous path toward EU-China-Africa trilateral cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa by C. Géraud Neema

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Borrowers in Africa and other developing regions are expected to repay $35 billion of Chinese loans this year, with two-thirds of the amount coming from the world's poorest countries. Many of these debts were taken out in the mid-2010s and are now exiting their grace periods, putting enormous pressure on government budgets that were already under strain.

But this isn't a problem just for borrowing countries; Chinese creditors are also finding themselves in a difficult bind. If they push too hard to collect on these debts, it could force the most vulnerable countries into default. At the same time, though, they have an obligation to their stakeholders, including Chinese taxpayers, to ensure these obligations are fulfilled.

Riley Duke, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, highlighted the difficult dilemma for both creditor and borrower in a new report on Chinese debt collection. Riley joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to discuss how both sides of the transaction are responding to this growing challenge.

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China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.

The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.

Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.

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Over the past 25 years, China’s military engagement with Africa has grown dramatically. In 2000, fewer than 5% of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70% of African militaries, and China has become the continent’s largest arms supplier.

Officer training programs have followed a similar trajectory. At the turn of the century, fewer than 200 African officers were trained in China; today, that number exceeds 2,000.

Paul Nantulya, a veteran China–Africa military analyst and research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, joins Eric and Cobus to unpack his latest findings on how Beijing is deepening its defense ties across the continent.

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In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China. 

But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot.

A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreign policy experts from India, Brazil, and South Africa, revealed sharp divergences in how these countries view the global order, the roles of China and the U.S., and the future of multilateral institutions.

Eric & Cobus speak with two of the report’s contributors, Manjeet Kripalani in Mumbai and Carlos Coelho in Rio de Janeiro, about how countries like India and Brazil are navigating this increasingly contested world.

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For years, China has been seen as the pivotal international economic partner across Africa. That was certainly true in terms of steadily rising trade volumes and a fire hose of state backed loans that built roads, railways, and ports across the continent.

But when it comes to investment, China's always been a laggard behind the United States and the former European colonial powers. Today, it's the UAE, not China, that is the continent's largest source of foreign direct investment.

Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C., joins Eric to discuss his latest report on Chinese FDI in Africa and why the long-promised wave of manufacturing investment never materialized.

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U.S. foreign policy towards Africa has been totally upended since Donald Trump returned to power earlier this year. Gone are the decades-old humanitarian programs that have been replaced by a new strategy that focuses on expanding U.S. commercial ties and countering China's presence on the continent.

The State Department's most senior diplomat for Africa, Troy Fitrell, the senior official in the Bureau of African Affairs, appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on Africa this week to explain the new policy with a particular focus on how the U.S. should challenge "China's malign influence in Africa."

Eric, Cobus, and Geraud review Fitrell's statements on China through a point-by-point analysis, exploring whether Washington's new approach is truly fresh or merely a rehash of what previous administrations have tried to do for years in Africa vis-à-vis the Chinese.

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JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth