The federal Liberals miraculous early-2025 comeback was one of the biggest sudden shocks in Canadian political history. In response to Justin Trudeau's resignation, Donald Trump's threats and tariffs and the ascendance of Mark Carney, Canadian voters flocked back to the party that had been in power for a decade. The party they appeared ready to abandon. In the wake of that, things seemed to settle into a new normal—something resembling a two-party system, with the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck.

But in the first two months of this year, the tides seem to have turned again, but not in a way many predicted. The political landscape in this country, at least according to the polls, is looking different by the day. And upcoming byelections could push the Liberals into a majority. What's happening here? How much of this is real? And what have we learned about Canadian polling at a time when misinformation is a major part of many people's news diet?

Canadian polling expert Philippe J. Fournier, creator of 338Canada, joins Jordan for a conversation on the recent federal shift, what it tells us about the year to come, and the state of political polling in Canada.

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