Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Ag Secretary Teases "BIG Announcement" - SAF, Trade Deal, MFP???


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0:00 Rollins BIG Announcement
3:48 Trump and China
5:19 The Funds
7:39 Mexico Corn Imports
9:02 Roundup Settlement
10:26 Cattle on Feed

Secretary Rollins on Long-Term Agricultural Prosperity 🌱🚜
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the long-term benefits of President Trump's policies for farmers and ranchers, despite the ongoing challenges of tariffs and market volatility. In a recent interview, Rollins acknowledged the struggles under the Biden administration but expressed confidence that, by the end of Trump's term, the agricultural industry will thrive. She highlighted the importance of short-term uncertainty for achieving long-term success. The airplane emoji in Rollins' X post could be a nod to the growing focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).Β 

Trump Teases Flexibility on Reciprocal Tariffs πŸ’Όβš–οΈ
President Trump suggested some flexibility regarding the upcoming reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 2. While markets briefly rallied after the statement, the excitement quickly faded as concerns about stagflation grew. Trump also mentioned that negotiations with China remain possible, with a meeting with President Xi Jinping potentially on the horizon.

Funds Trim Corn Positions πŸ“‰πŸŒ½
The latest CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in corn by 28k contracts. This is part of a broader trend of funds slashing their corn positions since mid-February, cutting back a total of 255k contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat positions also saw reductions.Β 

Mexico's Corn Imports Set to Decline πŸŒ½πŸ‡²πŸ‡½
Mexico's corn imports are forecast to decline by 3% in the 2025/2026 season, driven by a boost in domestic production and carryover stocks from record-high imports last year. Despite the drop, imports are expected to remain the second-highest on record. Increased demand for yellow corn, particularly for poultry feed, continues to drive the need for imports.Β 

Bayer Faces Legal Setback in Roundup Lawsuit βš–οΈπŸ’ΌΒ 

Bayer has been ordered to pay $ 2.1 billion in damages over its Roundup weedkiller, which was linked to cancer by the plaintiff. Bayer plans to appeal the ruling, and they've already spent $10 billion in settlements, part of the $16 billion allocated for Roundup-related litigation. The company has struggled since acquiring Monsanto in 2018, with stock prices dropping over 70%. πŸ“‰βš–οΈ

Cattle on Feed Report Bullish πŸ„πŸ“Š Friday
Friday's Cattle on Feed report showed a 2% decrease in cattle on feed as of March 1, compared to last year, but in line with pre-report estimates. February placements came in much lower than anticipated, suggesting a tighter supply of cattle. This is expected to be bullish for the market, as fewer cattle on feed and limited imports of Mexican feeder cattle have constrained supply. πŸ„πŸ’₯

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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