What if the “AI revolution” is actually… stuck in the messy middle? In this episode, Benedict Evans returns to tackle the big question we left hanging a year ago: Is AI a true paradigm shift, or just another tech platform shift like mobile or cloud? One year later, the answer is more complicated — and more revealing — than anyone expected.

Benedict pulls back the curtain on why, despite all the hype and model upgrades, the core LLMs are starting to look like commodities. We dig into the real battlegrounds: distribution, brand, and the race to build sticky applications. Why is ChatGPT still topping the App Store charts while Perplexity and Claude barely register outside Silicon Valley? Why did OpenAI just hire a CEO of Applications, and what does that signal about the future of AI products?

We go deep on the “probabilistic” nature of LLMs, why error rates are still the elephant in the room, the future of consumer AI (is there a killer app beyond chatbots and image generators?), the impact of generative content on e-commerce and advertising, and whether “AI agents” are the next big thing — or just another overhyped demo.

And, we ask: What happened to AI doomerism? Why did the existential risk debate suddenly vanish, and what risks should we actually care about?

Benedict Evans

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans

Threads - https://www.threads.net/@benedictevans

FIRSTMARK

Website - https://firstmark.com

X/Twitter - https://twitter.com/FirstMarkCap

Matt Turck (Managing Director)

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/turck/

X/Twitter - https://twitter.com/mattturck

(00:00) Intro

(01:47) Is AI a Platform Shift or a Paradigm Shift?

(07:21) Error Rates and Trust in AI

(15:07) Adapting to AI’s Capabilities

(19:18) Generational Shifts in AI Usage

(22:10) The Commoditization of AI Models

(27:02) Are Brand and Distribution the Real Moats in AI?

(29:38) OpenAI: Research Lab or Application Company?

(33:26) Big Tech’s AI Strategies: Apple, Google, Meta, AWS

(39:00) AI and Search: Is ChatGPT a Search Engine?

(42:41) Consumer AI Apps: Where’s the Breakout?

(45:51) The Need for a GUI for AI

(48:38) Generative AI in Social and Content

(51:02) The Business Model of AI: Ads, Memory, and Moats

(55:26) Enterprise AI: SaaS, Pilots, and Adoption

(01:00:08) The Future of AI in Business

(01:05:11) Infinite Content, Infinite SKUs: AI and E-commerce

(01:09:42) Doomerism, Risks, and the Future of AI