This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world discovering that technology, politics, and war are moving faster than institutions built to manage them. They begin with Iran, where Haass argues Washington should have led with economic pressure, not military escalation, and where coercion now tests which side can endure more pain. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s drone advantage, America’s dated defense posture, and the need for something like a second Pentagon built for cheap, scalable systems. They also weigh deficits, vaccines, anti-vax politics, Democratic enthusiasm, Trump’s health, and the uneasy state of the WNBA. Finally, because equilibrium must be restored, there is golf: Winged Foot, Phil Mickelson, and the value of low expectations.

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Produced by Dale Eisinger 

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which imperfect outcomes may be the best available ones. They begin with Iran, where Haass sees a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but not peace, not a ceasefire, and not a strategic victory. Tehran has gained leverage; Washington has limited options; and America’s defense-industrial base is proving ill-suited to the wars it may be asked to fight. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s air-defense crisis, the unreality of the latest Gaza peace plan, Israel’s growing estrangement from American politics, and the coming collision between AI and domestic policy. Finally, because no episode is complete without sports, Haass hedges on the maybe-not-playoff-bound New York Giants and both marvel at the resurgent Boston Red Sox. 

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which overreach has become policy. They begin with Iran, where the United States and Tehran appear to be acting against their own interests: bombing, retaliation, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and a memorandum of understanding that solved too little and conceded too much. Haass argues the next step should be a ceasefire, renewed nuclear diplomacy, and a more serious effort to reopen the strait. They then turn to a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear arrangement, the absence of process in American foreign policy, Mayor Mamdani’s performative politics, a brutal Fox poll for Trump, AI systems moving faster than governance, and, finally, Cam Young, the Open, and the World Cup.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether Washington has anything resembling a Plan C for Iran. Haass offers one: First, accept that previous U.S. plans (first bombing our way to regime change or Iranian capitulation followed by an effort to negotiate an end to the war on reasonable terms) have all failed. Then he suggests adopting a new strategy, one that includes maintaining sanctions rather than rewarding Tehran, building Gulf defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, accelerating measures to gradually reduce the Strait’s strategic importance, and returning focus to the nuclear issue to ensure that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. It may mean accepting the uncomfortable reality of a privileged role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz for a time if it is to stay open. The two co-hosts also discuss Ukraine’s new leverage, Russia’s temptations, America’s contested midterms, and the curse of Trump in sports.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world long on ceasefires and short on strategy. They begin with the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the subject of Haass’s recent Home and Away essay, bluntly titled “Defeat,” and ask whether the deal is less diplomacy than capitulation: vague on the nuclear question, silent on missiles, generous to Tehran, and dangerous for Israel and America’s partners. From there, they turn to Netanyahu’s narrowing room for maneuver, JD Vance’s warning to Israel, and the erosion of U.S. reliability. They then discuss Haass’s forthcoming Foreign Affairs essay with Council on Foreign Relations Taiwan expert David Sacks on Taiwan, arms sales, and the risk of treating commitments as bargaining chips. Finally, they touch on Keir Starmer’s troubles, Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock, the Knicks’ improbable championship.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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John Ellis and Richard Haass take up a world in which problems are less solved than managed. Iran remains unfinished business, with the future of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits on Iran, and sanctions relief all in play. What is certain is that the Gulf states face a future of greater uncertainty, with some likely to try to come to terms with Iran and others more inclined to confront it. China’s outreach to North Korea reveals an effort on Xi Jinping's part to reestablish influence there as well as the unease beneath his partnership with Putin as Russia's war with Ukraine grows more costly, less winnable, and harder to exit. At home, California’s elections and urban progressive politics point to intra-Democratic tensions heading toward 2028. And, inevitably, the Knicks, with one of our two hosts going with his head and the other his heart.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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For years, artificial intelligence occupied the familiar territory of technological optimism: faster growth, greater efficiency, and the promise that innovation would solve more problems than it created. That era may be ending. This week on Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis examine the rapid emergence of AI not simply as a business story, but as a political, strategic, and even theological one. Prompted by a sweeping papal encyclical warning against surrendering human judgment to machines, the conversation explores the widening backlash against Silicon Valley’s concentration of power and the growing fear that societies are drifting into dependence on systems they neither understand nor control. From the possibility of AI regulation and U.S.-China competition to the surprising coalition forming between populists, evangelicals, and labor skeptics, Haass argues that the debate over artificial intelligence is quickly becoming a debate about governance itself. Also: early 2028 political maneuvering, Texas intrigue, and the improbable emotional stability of New York Knicks fans.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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In this week’s Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis begin with Iran, which remains suspended in the uneasy territory between war and peace.  Washington appears to be inching toward a revised nuclear arrangement that resembles, in substance if not in branding, the very deal Donald Trump tore up in his first term. Also emerging are growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may come to regret advocating for a war that has created growing problems for Israel's relations with its most important patron. In Asia, Trump’s remarks on Taiwan raise unsettling questions about whether support for Taiwan could be traded off in exchange for increased access to China's market. The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where mounting Russian casualties, strikes deep inside Russian territory, and growing signs of political anxiety around Vladimir Putin suggest the war may be nearing an end on terms closer to Ukraine's than Russia's. Domestically, Senate Republicans might finally be balking at the political excesses and corruption of the Trump administration, which is turning into a political liability with all but hard-core Republican voters. The episode closes, as always, with sports, which thanks to the Knicks and the PGA provide an upbeat final few minutes.  

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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John Ellis and Richard Haass discuss the latest on multiple wars, actual and political. They review the absence of good options for ending the war with Iran, noting that wars dont necessarily end when one side (in this case Donald Trump) has had enough.  The big question as the President heads to China is what he might be prepared to give up on Taiwan or chips to get Xi’s help with Iran or on trade. The surprising good news is how the tide of war is slowly but steadily turning against Vladimir Putin in his increasingly unsuccessful war of choice against Ukraine. Peace or at least a lasting ceasefire may be closer than many realize. Closer to home, the two look at the partisan wars in several states over redistricting, which for now seem to be favoring the Republicans but no matter what the result are sure to leave American politics more polarized and the political center losing out to the extremes.  Last but never least, Ellis and Haass turn to sports, in this case to celebrate the Knicks who are playing their best basketball of the year and who could well end up in the NBA finals if they manage to keep it up and stay healthy.

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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Alternate Shots returns with John Ellis and Richard Haass examining a geopolitical and domestic political landscape defined by drift. The crisis surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz underscores a broader reality: deterrence is fraying, diplomacy is episodic, and the risk of miscalculation is rising. The United States faces narrowing options, caught between rising economic pressure, a lack of promising military options, and the absence of a coherent endgame. Beyond the Middle East, transatlantic relations continue to erode, as Europe questions both American reliability and judgment. At home, political fragmentation reflects a deeper institutional fatigue, raising doubts about the capacity of either party to address structural challenges, from technological disruption to economic insecurity. What emerges is a portrait of a system and a world under stress. 

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

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Produced by Dale Eisinger