Andrew Dickens Afternoons

I had a week off due to a number of personal reasons including moving house so I have had a merciful break.
For a week I haven’t had to say the c word.  It’s got so ubiquitous that I think it should be the second c word to be banned on the radio.
The word of course is Coronavirus. There is a third c word we could ban and that’s Covid-19.
Now I hate to say I told you so but I told you so. A month ago I wrote that that you and I are highly unlikely to catch this new viral bug, but it’s effect on the world will be enormous because of the effect on the global economy. An effect that was totally predictable as entire regions of countries are shut and production halted for 14 days or more.
And so it’s been proven.
The front page of any news website today highlights that hundreds of jobs have already been lost in the tourism industry.  The Air New Zealand boss has today taken a pay cut and suspended earnings guidance as people stop travelling here and New Zealanders stop travelling abroad. I personally know of three kids on three separate overseas school trips that have been cancelled in the past week.
Meanwhile, business after business are preparing for a more widespread arrival of the virus in this country making sure that work from home provisions have been made. I know of one business where all the staff have been issued the Zoom app on their home computers and work laptops to enable video conferencing in the event of self-quarantining.
So we’re getting there but now attention focuses on the Government. A lot of people have been having their two cents worth and one of the frequently mentioned ideas is the suspension of GST until the economic impact of the virus has passed.
The thinking is that with more money in their pockets, New Zealanders will spend more on services and stuff, keeping the economy moving.
But I don’t understand the thinking behind this because what’s the point of having more money to spend on stuff and services when there’s no stuff or services to be bought?
All along I and others like Liam Dann have been saying this is a new type of economic crisis. It’s not like the GFC where money and demand fell down,
This is a supply side crisis. The quarantining has stopped stuff being made in China and now Italy.  They can’t supply us with products so we can’t buy it.  If a TV retailer suddenly has no TVs to sell it doesn’t matter how rich his customers are or how big their tax cuts are.  He’s got nothing to sell.
It’s like the tourism sector. The supply of tourists has dried up. A GST cut will not fix that.
The ongoing repercussions of a GST cut and then a reinstatement after the crisis will be large and of course it impoverishes the Government’s purse and their ability to provide targeted support through the tough times.
Tough times that I hope are short. China has already restarted 40 per cent of the productivity it lost through their epidemic .
To me a restructuring of the country’s tax system in response to this virus would be a massive over-reaction. Way more so than all the people who said the travel bans and self-quarantining was an over-reaction.

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What a remarkable time of self-regulation and personal responsibility we’ve entered.
First and foremost is the coronavirus kerfuffle that has engulfed the world. In the battle against the bug the populace has been given the word to take care of themselves. To be sensible and to be responsible.
So no hugs, no hongis, no handshakes.  Wash your hands. Feel ill? Call a doctor and then self-quarantine. Make sure you have a plan to make sure you could spend a fortnight at home.
So how fascinating is it that so many people have blundered on through.  The infected who ran straight to GPs and the Emergency Departments in Italy without prior warning, immediately forcing emergency staff and doctors to self-quarantine and further weaken the response.
How remarkable that a handful of supermarkets saw panicked buying as people hoarded stuff meaning that those who came after them were left with nothing.  So selfish and irrational.
The run on facemasks amuses me.  Facemasks stop the infected spluttering the bug out.  They're not very good at stopping the bug getting in.  It just rocks up through your eyes or from your hands after you take the facemasks off. So why on earth are all these people hoarding and wearing facemasks.
You can’t write some of this stuff.  The stupidity and selfishness of people
But then we come to the drought in the North which is now at quite remarkable levels.  People are being asked to save water.  Some are being responsible, particularly old people who know about self-sacrifice but most are not.
Paihia has not saved a drop.  Partly because of cruise ships arriving but also because the residents have nicer properties with thirstier gardens.  And for some nobody tells you how long to shower for.  It’s what lost Helen Clark an election.
Last week in Auckland as the Council funded advertising urging Aucklanders to conserve we had three days of the highest consumption ever recorded.
The house two doors down for me has an automated watering system for their garden of palms and tussocks which are drought hardy yet that system faithfully fires up twice a day
I was swimming at a beach the other day.  It’s the famous beach that Rod Duke has built a helipad next to that has everyone up at arms.  Rod has built a massive mansion.  Last week I watched a gang of workers dutifully washing and scrubbing all his garden stairs. I thought someone’s not thinking, or maybe they just don’t care.
And then there’s Auckland’s traffic congestion because of the multiple rebuilds to get the city ready for APEC and the Americas Cup in 2021 and the future afterwards.  It has astounded me how many people have refused to change their commuting patterns and then have the gall to complain about it. By the way Victoria Street is now back to four lanes and its lovely and so it the bigger footpath but have you heard anybody commenting on that.  No.  But they couldn’t shut up about it during the 1 month build.
So three things we needed to do for our community.  Our health and support for those affected by a new threat.  Our water and our traffic flows. It’s fair to say we didn’t do well.
But we’ve been saying that New Zealanders ability to take personal responsibility has been slack for ages now and how depressing that we continue to underperform.

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In the wake of the murders of Hannah Clarke and her three children by a former New Zealander who burnt his family to death and then killed himself with a knife, which takes a lot of doing, there has been much wringing of hands.
But some are saying we must do something to prevent this from happening to one more woman, one more child.
In Australia, Heather Nancarrow, the chief executive of the Australian National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, proposed a dramatic policy.
She reckons that during the period of separation, every man must be put on a program. Their mental health should be checked and scrutinised for signs of violence.  All to make sure he is making the transition safely and does not become a risk to women, children or themselves.
Even Heather Nancarrow admits her idea is a radical one and it’s easy to pull it apart on logistics only.  And when we concentrate on one gender only in the relationship transition process, we’re ignoring the vast majority of people going through this highly stressful and emotional time.
The proof of this was during morning talk back where we instantly had men saying that women were not blameless or just as bad but in different ways or just as capable of killing if they put their mind to it.  And then the whole battle of the sexes resumes.
Heather Nancarrow has viewed this solely from the point of view of women’s safety and safety from male violence. All of which exists and deserves attention.
But in my 30 years of being around relationships, I’ve seen many break ups and some that were hugely traumatic.  None of the break ups of people I have known has devolved into interpersonal violence.  But that’s not to say there weren’t victims. Amongst my acquaintances, two people have lost their lives after a relationship dissolution.
But their death didn’t come at the hands of another but from their own hand. They committed suicide. Both were the wronged party, the one left behind by their partner. Both found it intolerable to live after the betrayal, impossible to carry on without the love of their life who had left them. One was a woman.  One was a man.
Heather Nancarrow is right that men kill their partners at a worrying rate during separations and we need to be watching out for the men whose switch has flipped.  She’s right to be concerned about people’s mental state at a time of separation.  She is right that we should be on alert for our family and friends at these times.  She’s right that if we’re concerned there should be a pathway or a resource we can access to help steer people away from the dark side.
What she got wrong is leaving out women from the monitoring.  Separation stress and trauma doesn’t just drive men crazy.  It’s not gender specific.
Where to get help:
If you are worried about your or someone else's mental health, the best place to get help is your GP or local mental health provider. However, if you or someone else is in danger or endangering others, call police immediately on 111.
Need to talk? Free call or text 1737 any time for support from a trained counsellor.
Or if you need to talk to someone else:
Lifeline – 0800 543 354Suicide Crisis Helpline – 0508 828 865 (0508 TAUTOKO)Youthline – 0800 376 633 or free text 234Kidsline – 0800 54 37 54 (for under 18s)What's Up – 0800 942 8787 (for 5–18 year olds 1pm–10pm weekdays and 3pm–10pm weekends)Depression Helpline – 0800 111 757 or free text 4202Samaritans – 0800 726 666OUTLine NZ – 0800 688 5463Healthline – 0800 611 116
How to get help
If you're in danger now:
• Phone the police on 111 or ask neighbours of friends to ring for you.• Run outside and head for where there are other people.• Scream for help so that your neighbours can hear you.• If you are being abused, remember it's not your fault. Violence is never okay.
Where to go for help or more information:
• NZ Police• The Harbour, for those affected by...

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Each day I’m getting a little more concerned about the coronavirus outbreak of Covid 19.
I’ve always bit a bit concerned but optimistic that this will pass quickly and life and trade will go back to normal.
After all the last coronavirus, SARS, came and went.  A virus that was more deadly than this current one.
But there’s a couple of things that have got me more worried.
When I interviewed Health Minister David Clark yesterday on the extension of Chinese visitor bans,  I said the often quoted argument that influenza kills more people but we don’t ban visits from infected areas.  David agreed but said the difference is that we have vaccines for flu.
Until we create a medical wall against the spread of the virus, then the physical wall of visitor bans will have to stay in place unless the virus peters out, which it doesn’t look like doing.
And then there was a piece in the South China Morning Post that warned that Covid 19 was going to be more damaging to the Chinese economy than SARS.
Put simply, the virus may be less deadly but it’s more catchy and it’s therefore not petering out and the quarantining, which is what hurts the economy, is going to go on for longer.
SARS killed 800 quickly. It cut two percentage points from China’s real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2003 and caused US$50 billion of damage to the global economy.
These days the Chinese economy is four times bigger than it was 17 years ago and we’re all a lot more connected and dependent on China.
The outbreak happened in the Lunar New Year holiday when everyone was travelling spreading this catchy little virus far and wide.  More Chinese holiday now than 17 years ago, making it harder to quarantine it out of existence.
Hospitality, retail, air travel, transport, entertainment and tourism will be among the sectors hardest hit, sectors that have grown the fastest in China as they move away from manufacturing into services and consumption.
Add all this into the continuing friction with the US with the tariff wars, the number of moribund economies around the globe and the forthcoming Brexit bubble and the South China Morning Post thinks the chance of a Chinese economic meltdown are higher now than ever before.
You and I are not going to die of Covid 19.  We’ll probably not even catch it.  But the economy will be getting a chill if not a full blown illness.
Meanwhile, I heard Simon Bridges this morning promising 3 per cent growth under National because he says his party are just better at this economy stuff. Good luck with that, Simon.

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The Newshub poll last night confirmed what we all know.  This election is going to be very very close.
This poll suggest Labour and the Greens could lead alone together.  Earlier polls suggest that national and Act could lead alone. So it’s swinging back on forth on a knife edge.  The swinging voters and the strategic voters have never been more important.  As few as 10,000 voters will effectively decide the next government.
So there was debate on the radio this morning about the government and time and time again callers returned to the old fallacy that somehow this government is undemocratic because the party that got the most votes last election did not form a government.
When National Party voters get that resentment out of their system, they will have a clearer mind on how to support their party. To make it perfectly clear, a sizeable majority of New Zealand voters last election voted against a National Government. 
Labour and the Greens campaigned against the government.  But so did New Zealand First. They campaigned against high immigration numbers, just like Labour, unlike National. They campaigned for rail, just like Labour, unlike National. And on many other fronts.
To make it perfectly clear to you, the New Zealand First slogan was “Had Enough?”. Obviously of a National Government and the constant refrain was that it was time, after nine years of National, for a change.
Throughout it was clear they were going to change the National Government’s policies. Either by joining them in a coalition and effecting change that way.  Or joining another coalition and getting rid of them entirely. Which is what they did.
From what I heard, National was very loathe to change their policy settings for New Zealand First so there was never a point to it so off they went to a party they had more in common with..
But this makes the next election fascinating in that New Zealand First will be campaigning against change. They’ll be campaigning for their policies rather than against someone else’s. That’s not their natural position so what will they do? We’ll find out.
Meanwhile, rather than moaning about New Zealand First’s decision two years ago I wish that National and it’s supporters got over it.  Realise where they went wrong.  Stop blaming others and start figuring out a way to ensure they get back on the treasury benches

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Well, here we go again with another virtue signalling stoush between greenies and progress.
A battle is brewing between Auckland’s Watercare and environmentalists over a plan to replace an ageing processing plant in the Waitakere Ranges.
The plant processes 20 per cent of Auckland’s water and it’s been doing the job for 100 years. Obviously, it’s come to an end of its days and it’s time to update it and future proof it for another 100 years.  This is a $400 million project that has to happen.
So this is the second time Watercare has tried to do this. Back in 2017 the plan was to put the plant in Oratia. It meant taking 18 homes and properties and the locals rebelled. So everything was put on hold.
Watercare has considered four sites and decided on one in Huia way out west in the Ranges and on the harbour.  But this is facing problems principally from environmentalists because of fears of spreading kauri dieback, a newly discovered  flightless wasp that lives in the area.  Some Argentine ants also live there and they could be spread further and then there’s all the trucks that would have to go through pretty little Titirangi for a year.
For goodness sake.  We’re talking about a fifth of Auckland’s water here. It can’t just not happen.  It’s necessary. But once again concerns, valid concerns but still relatively minor, are stopping things.
I’m as green as anyone and I try to leave as little impact on the environment as I can, but some things are unavoidable.
Environmentalists are preventing extensions to wharves in Auckland because it encroaches on the Harbour.  But the downside of this is that giant boats now moor right in the middle of a pretty harbour, belching smoke as they self power, creating a flotilla of environment producing tenders chugging back and forth with passengers, meanwhile ferries are playing dodgems with the lot of them.  I pretty sure the Harbour is worse off.
Dams in Hawkes Bay and Westland have been stopped even though they future proof populations from drought and earthquakes.
Roads have been stopped and you have to wonder how on earth electric cars and trucks are going to get from town to town without them.
A skilift at Cardrona has been cancelled because of native skinks.  I don't mind that.  No-one needs a skilift, but everyone needs water.
I hope these people stopping the work on the plant that processes 20 per cent of Auckland’s water are prepared to drink 20 per cent less water. Because it seems like that is the only option that is acceptable to them.
Nothing is 100 per cent green and never will be.  Human activity impacts the environment.  It does everyday.  Mitigate it, sure, but you can’t stop it.

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The Government has ordered a review of defence spending.  They say they’re looking for efficiencies and to ensure the spending is of the highest quality and they swear they’re not looking at cutting the defence spend.
The first question you have is; do we believe Grant Robertson?
I ask this because similar reviews of Ministry of Social Develoment spending in 2017 and 2018 ended out in savings of one per cent with little proof the money was in fact re-deployed within the Ministry.
I also ask this because Grant Robertson has been working to build a big pot of money for an election year spend up, and while the perception is that Labour is the spendy party, most will tell you that Grant Robertson guards the taxpayers’ money as hard as any Finance Minister has of any political colour.
You can’t help but feel that at the end of the day there will be less money spent on defence than before.
So I have more questions for you.
If you are a government that believes that climate change is coming.  And if you are a government that believes it can be a world leader in the sphere of coping and mitigating any future climate change.  And if you’re a government that wants to protect the wellbeing of your population.  Then surely you would be a government who want to increase the defence spend dramatically. Wouldn’t you?
Might sound counter intuitive but here’s my reasoning
When you mention defence spending people automatically think of guns and soldiers and bombs and tanks and battlefields and hotpots.  And yet the New Zealand Defence Force has barely been involved in that sort of warfare since last Century and the Vietnam war.
Our modern defence force is more involved in things like rebuilding, such as in Iraq, peacekeeping and defending our borders.  Most notably our economic borders and interests. One of the defence forces longest deployments was patrolling the red zone after the Christchurch earthquakes.
It’s in these areas that we are most likely to come under attack and defending our population is part of our wellbeing.
If climate change lives up to its hype the world will see the greatest migrations of refugees in world history as people leave newly inhospitable lands.  Our temperate, breezy and isolated islands in the middle of a sea will be a very coveted location for this new wave of nomadic people. We need to prepare for this with a vigilant defence force who are also there to help New Zealanders affected by increasing natural climate disasters
This government says it’s a world leader in climate change policy and yet it’s actions all seems to be insignificant gestures.  The conversion of the government’s fleet to EVs will do little to the world’s emissions and yet cost a significant amount.  If you believe that the world is going to become increasingly inhospitable then shouldn’t that money be spent protecting New Zealanders?
Where is the investment in seawalls to protect low lying areas? Where are the subsidies to help people move out of areas under threat from heat, fire and flood?  How about giving induction hobs a subsidy to reduce our usage of gas?
Our climate change policies are the result of what Jordan Petersen calls low resolution thinking. Higher resolution thinking is that to counter the effects of climate change we are going to need a substantial increase in defence spending and we have to start now.

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Climate activist Greta Thunberg and Germany's national railway company created a tweetstorm Sunday after she posted a photo of herself sitting on the floor of a train surrounded by lots of bags.
The image has drawn plenty of comment online about the performance of German railways.
Thunberg posted the tweet late Saturday with the comment "travelling on overcrowded trains through Germany. And I'm finally on my way home!"
But German railway company Deutsche Bahn suggested that Thunberg may not have spent the whole time sitting on the floor. And the 16-year-old Swedish activist later sought to draw a line under the matter by tweeting that she eventually got a seat and that overcrowded trains are a good thing.
Some Twitter users expressed pity for Thunberg for not being able to get a proper seat on the train for the long ride home from Madrid, where she was attending the U.N. climate change conference. Others wished her a safe trip home after months of traveling by trains and boats to different climate events in Europe and the United States.
Greta Thunberg listens to speeches before addressing the U.N. climate conference in Madrid. Photo / AP
Thunberg doesn't fly on planes because it's considered harmful to the climate. Last week, she was named Time magazine's Person of the Year for her efforts to prod government and others to take faster actions in fighting climate change.
Deutsche Bahn, which used to be famous for its punctuality, has come under fire in recent years for delays, last-minute train cancellations and expensive ticket fares.
In Deutsche Bahn's first reply to the teenager's initial tweet, the company wished her a good trip back home and adding that "we continue working hard on getting more trains, connections and seats."
Later, however, the railway company wrote in a statement to the media that Thunberg had a seat in first class between Kassel and Hamburg and that other members of her team were already sitting in first class from Frankfurt onwards.
In the photo on Twitter, Thunberg is sitting on the floor at the end of a rail car with her back leaning against a suitcase, staring out of a window. There's an empty food box next to her and more suitcases and backpacks piled up by her side.
Later on Sunday, Deutsche Bahn tweeted twice more in regard to Thunberg's train travels through Germany.
In the first tweet, the company thanks the teenager for supporting Deutsche Bahn's battle against climate change and pointed out that the train she used had been running 100% on eco-friendly electricity.
In the second tweet, however, Deutsche Bahn seemed to suggest that Thunberg hadn't spent the entire train ride sitting on the floor.
The company pointed out to the teenager that "it would have been even nicer if you had also reported how friendly and competently our team served you at your seat in first class."
Thunberg later tweeted that the fact she didn't first sit in a seat wasn't meant as a knock against Deutsche Bahn.
She wrote that "this is no problem of course and I never said it was. Overcrowded trains is a great sign because it means the demand for train travel is high!"

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So after the Faafoi fiasco the question is who were the winners and who were the losers.
To my mind, the biggest loser was the celebrity who leaked his own pleading texts while the big winner is Simon Bridges. 
There’s been a lot of chatter that Kris Faafoi should resign because he broke the Cabinet Manual and intervened in an immigration case for a celebrity friend.  The only problem with that is that he didn’t.
At that is self evident in a number of ways.  Firstly, the celebrity’s step dad is still fighting immigration for a visa. If there was an intervention, it failed. There’s no proof of an actual intervention.  All there is are some texts.
Secondly, the fact that the leaker of the texts was the celebrity himself.  Now he didn’t do it for the good of New Zealand democracy as a whole.  He did it out of anger that his pleas for some help in his family’s immigration case had gone unheeded.
Faafoi was guilty of something we all do.  Not saying no but saying maybe.  “We should work together on a project in the future”. “Yeah maybe”
We all know that maybe really means no. Faafoi said he’d see what he could do when he knew that there was nothing he could do.  He made a mistake.  Not one that needs him to be fired.
The celebrity meanwhile comes out looking like a spoilt brat who dobbed in a mate because a mate wouldn’t do what he asked.  That makes him the biggest loser because before this fiasco he was perceived as an all round nice guy.
But Simon Bridges wins the day because of how well he jumped on the issue.
He hasn’t joined the resign or fire mob because he knows full well that almost every MP has been guilty of the “See What I Can Do” text.  What he did do was come up with some quick and easy slogans. Firstly, he starting chanting that Jacinda is a weak leader. That’s all.  Not how she’s weak.  Just a flat out statement.
He also said this government falls under celebrity influence.  Even though of course the case showed that the celebrity had no influence at all.  But never mind that.  Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good political slogan. Weak leader influenced by celebrity. And repeat until it becomes a reality in voters’ minds
Simon Bridges and his team are getting very good at this. He has a crack social media team as we saw with the question time mini videos that Trevor Mallard cracked down on.  They come up with good hashtag slogans that stick.  One of the first was Part Time PM. He infuriates interviewers by repeating the same pat phrases over and over but he’s just making sure the voters get it stuck in their head.
Simon is a street brawler and he’s getting better at it.  He’s no gentleman politician like Bill English. He likes it in the gutter.
Add this to Winston Peters and New Zealand First fighting for their survival then as Audrey Young noted in the weekend, this election is going to be brutal and that’s just the way Simon Bridges likes it.

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Did Grant Robertson die and go to heaven? After a winter of discontent, a new spring has sprung for the Finance Minister.
Grumpy old ANZ, the bank that has always had the worst business confidence figures, has reported what they call a changing of the vibe in November.
"The improvement in the ANZ Business Outlook survey this month was broad and consistent," according to Sharon Zollner, their chief economist.  She reckons the significant easing in both interest rates and the exchange rate is clearly working its way through the economy, and the remarkable resilience of New Zealand's commodity prices is providing an invaluable buffer to the world's woes.
No kidding. For the past two years people have been worried about what this Government might do rather than what they’ve actually done. Thankfully the mob in charge are very slack at actually doing anything.
Then there’s the fillip of the stabilisation of property prices in a positive way.  Prices are still rising but not excessively so any doom merchants saying a crash is coming can stop chirruping their negativity.
This summer is forecast to be hot, employment is full, immigration is still strong at 50,000 people a year stimulating demand.  If this is what an economy going to hell in a handcart looks like then why have we been so worried?
So combine all that with historic low interest rates, historically low debt, a succession of surpluses and the fact that all our stuff is either too old or too small, then finally it’s time for a period of infrastructure investment.
This is something apolitical people have been talking about for five years. The capacity constraints in transport, health and education infrastructure, freight, water reticulation and waste disposal have become infuriating for us all.  But in the business of seeming prudent with the nation’s spending all political parties have avoided fixing the problems in front of our very eyes.
So now we have a government signalling they’re about to invest in New Zealand Inc. Next week in Grant Robertson’s acid test: what does he want to invest in?
His Achilles heel is roads. We all want roads. Especially to Northland, especially on State Highway 2 in the Bay of Plenty and especially through Mount Victoria in Wellington.
But if the Minister caves to the ideologues who believe we can survive without internal combustion he will have shown the weakness in infrastructure decision making that New Zealand has suffered from since Day One.
This is not about good politics. This must be about good business and, dare I say it, well-being.

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