Andrew Dickens Afternoons

Last week it was announced that the Nobel Peace Prize has gone to the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The man who brokered a peace deal to the 20 year war with Eritrea.  A man who changed the face of Ethiopia, all of a sudden half their cabinet are female, bans on opposition parties have been lifted and thousands of political prisoners freed. 
Most remarkably he achieved that in the first eight months of his leadership. He thoroughly deserves the honour.
Far more so than 16 year old Greta Thurnberg, who was also nominated. Greta has staged a remarkable protest but that is principally because her parents allowed her to protest everyday outside her country’s parliament. 
As a PR stunt it’s a good one, but it was just that, a stunt and it is failing to produce any positive change other than infuriating baby boomers.  If that’s all that it takes to win a Peace Prize then how about giving it to the Falun Gong protesters who spent nine months outside our offices because of something Kerre said.
Greta doesn’t infuriate me because you can’t be angry at people protesting.  It’s the free speech thing we love so much about democracy. But nor am I so impressed that I thought she should be in the running.
Now we know that Greta Thurnberg was nominated because her nominator went public.  But what about Jacinda Ardern who was also reportedly nominated?  I’ve always wondered about that because the Nobel committee never reveals nominees until 50 years after the award.  So who nominated the PM and blabbed? 
 The other peculiar thing is nominations close on the first day of February.  Any nominations after that are forwarded to the next year.  The mosque attacks were in March.  So what exactly was Jacinda Ardern being nominated for apart from being young, female, liberal and telegenic.
So where did this story come from? Time magazine featured her in a list of favourites to win the Peace Prize at the beginning of October and then a UK betting agency picked that up and installed her as fourth favourite. But you know I doubt she was even nominated and if she has been it will be for next year’s prize. Hopefully the 80,000 people who have signed a petition calling for her to get the award can wait a year.
Some people got very excited that this was a piece of fake news spread by the left to lift Jacinda Ardern’s poll figures. I don’t think so. I reckon it was a slap dash reckon written by a staff writer in a magazine who failed to do research, and other media followed their lead.
Meanwhile a poll came out last night and her poll figures dived nearly 10 per cent so if that was the plan then that didn’t work. Tova O’Brien stood on the Newshub set and breathlessly said the Jacinda magic was over. 
Well that’s a bit of a reckon too as her poll figures are now exactly the same as they were two years ago when the term Jacindamania was coined. But what is also true is that her popularity is lower than a couple of months ago because of a perception that the government she runs is out of their depth.
And that could be based on the reckons of commentators who have been saying that this is the worst government ever for the past two years of their existence. Fake News, Polls and Peace Prizes eh?
What I make of it all is to take everything with a grain of salt and make your own mind up based on facts. If you can find them.

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Ginger Baker, the volatile and propulsive British musician who was best known for his time with the power trio Cream, died Sunday at age 80, his family said.
Baker wielded his blues power and jazz technique to help break open popular music and become one of the world's most admired and feared musicians.
With blazing eyes, orange-red hair and a temperament to match, the London native ranked with The Who's Keith Moon and Led Zeppelin's John Bonham as the embodiment of musical and personal fury. Using twin bass drums, Baker fashioned a pounding, poly-rhythmic style uncommonly swift and heavy that inspired and intimidated countless musicians. But every beat seemed to mirror an offstage eruption — whether his violent dislike of Cream bandmate Jack Bruce or his on-camera assault of a documentary maker, Jay Bulger, whom he smashed in the nose with his walking stick.
Bulger would call the film, released in 2012, "Beware of Mr. Baker."
Baker's family said on Twitter that he died Sunday: "We are very sad to say that Ginger has passed away peacefully in hospital this morning."
His daughter Nettie confirmed that Baker died in Britain but gave no other details. The family had said on Sept. 25 that Baker was critically ill in the hospital.
While Rolling Stone magazine once ranked him the third-greatest rock drummer of all time, behind Moon and Bonham, Baker had contempt for Moon and others he dismissed as "bashers" without style or background. Baker and his many admirers saw him as a rounded, sophisticated musician — an arranger, composer and student of the craft, absorbing sounds from around the world. He had been playing jazz since he was a teenager and spent years in Africa in the 1970s, forming a close friendship with the Nigerian musician-activist Fela Kuti.

Ginger Baker (c) with Cream in 1967. Photo / AP
"He was so unique and had such a distinctive personality," Stewart Copeland of the Police told www.musicradar.com in 2013. "Nobody else followed in his footsteps. Everybody tried to be John Bonham and copy his licks, but it's rare that you hear anybody doing the Ginger Baker thing."
But many fans thought of Baker as a rock star, who teamed with Eric Clapton and Bruce in the mid-1960s to become Cream — one of the first supergroups and first power trios. All three were known individually in the London blues scene and together they helped make rock history by elevating instrumental prowess above the songs themselves, even as they had hits with "Sunshine of Your Love," ''I Feel Free" and "White Room."
Cream was among the most successful acts of its time, selling more than 10 million records. But by 1968 Baker and Bruce had worn each other out and even Clapton had tired of their deafening, marathon jams, including the Baker showcase "Toad," one of rock's first extended drum solos. Cream split up at the end of the year, departing with two sold-out shows at London's Albert Hall. When told by Bulger that he was a founding father of heavy metal, Baker snarled that the genre "should have been aborted."
To the surprise of many, especially Clapton, he and Baker were soon part of another super group, Blind Faith, which also featured singer-keyboardist Stevie Winwood and bassist Ric Grech.
As Clapton would recall, he and Winwood had been playing informally when Baker turned up (Baker would allege that Clapton invited him). Named Blind Faith by a rueful Clapton, the band was overwhelmed by expectations from the moment it debuted in June 1969 before some 100,000 at a concert in London's Hyde Park. It split up after completing just one, self-titled album, as notable for its cover photo of a topless young girl as for its music. A highlight from the record: Baker's cymbal splashes on Winwood's lyrical ballad "Can't Find My Way Home."
From the 1970s on, Baker was ever more unpredictable. He moved to Nigeria, took up polo,...

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There’s a common factor to the stories that made the headlines over the past few days and that commonality is drugs.
Firstly the immense growth in numbers of gang members in New Zealand. According to the police there are 6729 patched or prospect gang members in this country. That’s a rise of nearly 26 per cent over the last two years.
It’s an incredible number. 1386 new gang members in just two years. Simon Bridges says it’s because the Labour led government is soft on crime, which I find personally to be the most laughable thing he’s said lately. They’re soft on some crime but it ain’t gangs. Look at what happened over those same 2 years.
There have been 10 per cent more officers added over that time. By next year 700 officers will be specifically assigned to police organised crime and gangs. Add to that the 1200 offenders deported from Australia in those same 2 years many of whom are gang members. The Comancheros have been formed in that time.
The fact is we have more police fighting more gang members. But the other driver is that the gang’s core business of selling methamphetamine has gone through the roof. Police estimate the gangs sell half a billion dollars of P a year. One and a half tonnes of meth have been seized this year alone.
Our predilection for speed and it’s variants is one of the highest in the world and that breeds the gangs.
Drugs were also to blame for the hospitalisation of five and insanely dangerous behaviour at an Auckland dance party on Friday. The floor of Mount Smart Stadium was littered with the evidence of of little plastic bags that held the pills that are rotting our society.
Then there was the terrible tragedy of the Dunedin house party. The house was packed to bursting point with 600 people and when the police arrived there was a panic. You don’t panic unless you’re doing something wrong. I’m picking there were a lot of kids there with stuff in their pockets they didn’t want the cops to find. While this is speculation from my part at the same time the past five years I have had numerous people contacting me concerned about the rise of drugs at tertiary institutions.
We have a double standard around drugs as seen by the push for a cannabis referendum.
We tolerate and even enjoy their presence in our society while being blind to the way they drive on the undesirable sectors in our country. We really need to get straight. The country needs to go to rehab.

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So a so called high powered group has come out with their suggestions for port reform.
It’s an extremely important thing to think about because the 3 ports involved are the major conduit for our stuff going abroad to earn money and for bringing in other stuff we need.  And the way they work together is part of a logistical exercise called the supply chain which is a complex and massive beast that affects all New Zealanders and our economy.  It’s not just an idea to pretty up Auckland’s waterfront
The second interim report of the Government's Upper North Island Port Strategy recommends closing the used-car and container-port operations in Auckland's CBD. Developing Northport at Marsden Point as a modern, world-class, deep-water alternative and expanding the Port of Tauranga as planned.
Now this is actually a good idea.  Matthew Hooten says that if Jacinda Ardern can get this over the line it is a true transformational idea that will future proof our exports for years to come.
But the way this port argues the obvious is disingenuous to me and the reason is because it appears to be written from Northports point of view and not with the nationwide interest.  This would be no surprise because Shane Jones and Winston Peters and New Zealand First have been driving the discussion.  They’ve also got their Far North mate Wayne Brown to chair it.
The reason I say it’s disingenuous is because it wildly understates the cost of the operation to the nation.
The report details a number of options and the costs vary between 10 and 14 billion dollars. That’s the cost to the various port companies and not the actual cost of such a project.
If cars and containers moved to Northport you’ve got to get them to the rest of the country.  As Wayne Brown said that would mean 4 laning the state highway to Whangarei in the first case and then improving the rail link.
Well there’s 83 kilometres of road to build between Whangarei and Wellsford and 4 years ago a back of the envelope calculation said that would cost 2 billion dollars.  You could double or even triple that.  What’s even more concerning is that all these trucks with cars and containers would need to cross the Auckland harbour some way which means either a new bridge or congestion out west. 
Speaking of congestion once the 4 lanes were in they’d be almost immediately full of trucks.  The rail link is imperative.  At the moment it’s just a single line in dodgy condition.  A single line means trains either going up or down but not both ways all the time.  You’d have to fix the track up and then double track it.  But to make it future proof I’d suggest you’d need at least 4 tracks. That cost will make the City Rail Link look like chickenfeed
And then when trains full of containers and trucks hit Auckland they have to share the tracks with passenger trains so actually you’d have to build a dedicated freight network through the city. See the picture I’m painting?
So don’t get me wrong.  This is a good idea.  But it’s got a lot more implications than this report alludes to.  It won’t happen in 10 years.  And if you think it’s going to cost 10 billion dollars, you’re dreaming.  I doubt there’d be much change out 50 billion or more.  And that money has to come from all taxpayers in the country. And that’s why I think this report is disingenuous.

So a so called high powered group has come out with their suggestions for port reform.
It’s an extremely important thing to think about because the 3 ports involved are the major conduit for our stuff going abroad to earn money and for bringing in other stuff we need.  And the way they work together is part of a logistical exercise called the supply chain which is a complex and massive beast that affects all New Zealanders and our economy.  It’s not just an idea to pretty up Auckland’s waterfront
The second interim report of the Government's Upper North Island Port Strategy recommends closing the used-car and container-port operations in Auckland's CBD. Developing Northport at Marsden Point as a modern, world-class, deep-water alternative and expanding the Port of Tauranga as planned.
Now this is actually a good idea.  Matthew Hooten says that if Jacinda Ardern can get this over the line it is a true transformational idea that will future proof our exports for years to come.
But the way this port argues the obvious is disingenuous to me and the reason is because it appears to be written from Northports point of view and not with the nationwide interest.  This would be no surprise because Shane Jones and Winston Peters and New Zealand First have been driving the discussion.  They’ve also got their Far North mate Wayne Brown to chair it.
The reason I say it’s disingenuous is because it wildly understates the cost of the operation to the nation.
The report details a number of options and the costs vary between 10 and 14 billion dollars. That’s the cost to the various port companies and not the actual cost of such a project.
If cars and containers moved to Northport you’ve got to get them to the rest of the country.  As Wayne Brown said that would mean 4 laning the state highway to Whangarei in the first case and then improving the rail link.
Well there’s 83 kilometres of road to build between Whangarei and Wellsford and 4 years ago a back of the envelope calculation said that would cost 2 billion dollars.  You could double or even triple that.  What’s even more concerning is that all these trucks with cars and containers would need to cross the Auckland harbour some way which means either a new bridge or congestion out west. 
Speaking of congestion once the 4 lanes were in they’d be almost immediately full of trucks.  The rail link is imperative.  At the moment it’s just a single line in dodgy condition.  A single line means trains either going up or down but not both ways all the time.  You’d have to fix the track up and then double track it.  But to make it future proof I’d suggest you’d need at least 4 tracks. That cost will make the City Rail Link look like chickenfeed
And then when trains full of containers and trucks hit Auckland they have to share the tracks with passenger trains so actually you’d have to build a dedicated freight network through the city. See the picture I’m painting?
So don’t get me wrong.  This is a good idea.  But it’s got a lot more implications than this report alludes to.  It won’t happen in 10 years.  And if you think it’s going to cost 10 billion dollars, you’re dreaming.  I doubt there’d be much change out 50 billion or more.  And that money has to come from all taxpayers in the country. And that’s why I think this report is disingenuous.

Another milestone for families of the Pike River Mine victims.
The agency has accompanied family members 170 metres in the mine's drift.
It's the closest they've come to their loved ones, since they perished almost nine years ago.
Newstalk ZB reporter Rachel Das told Andrew Dickens it was a very emotional day for the families. 
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One of the most consistent criticisms of the government is that they keep coming up with ideas that sound nice in theory but in reality are completely unworkable.
The obvious one is their belief that electric vehicles will save the planet because they’re not burning petrol.  We should all drive one and thus climate change will be mitigated.
Now while that’s true when a few people drive electric cars, it’s not the silver bullet answer for all. It ignores the amount of emissions required to build the car, the oil in the plastics and the mining of the material for the batteries. It also ignores the disposal of the spent batteries which is an environmental catastrophe in itself.
It’s the same when it comes to blind faith in the value of cycleways. If we’re offered safe cycling highways we will choose to avoid the car congestion and get on a bike.  But that ignores the sheer size of our cities.  Our average commutes are some of the longest in the world because we’re so spread out. And we’re hilly.  The image of demure ladies pedaling their designer bikes alongside the canals of Amsterdam ain’t happening here.
Cycleways are valuable in dangerous stretches of road  (by the way Island bay was not a dangerous road for cyclists), but not the answer in our non intensive cities.
But it’s not just this lot who like to say things that sound good but won’t work.
This morning I woke to the news that the National Party is looking into fining the parents of young people who leave school early, and don't go into education or training. Up to $3000 apparently.
Damn right the dim-witted might say.  Parental Responsibility.  There’s 18,000 16 to 18 year olds on the benefit.  How could parents ever let their kids embark on worthless lives.
But honestly, if a parent is the type who has been unable to inspire their children in to a productive lifestyle in the first 16 years of their life do you think they’re really the type to happily pay a 3 grand fine.
David Seymour ripped it apart in seconds this morning.  Kids in poor areas, with dropkick students, with no jobs, no polytechs, no trade training. And then you fine their family for the systemic failure.
It joins the fine line of unworkable stuff that’s easy to say on talkback like sterilising the serial single mums or issuing parental licences.  One of the other ideas national is thinking about is getting gang members to declare their illegal income before they can receive a benefit. I mean really.  Excuse me Mister Mongrel Mob, how much do you make from meth?
It’s dumb dog whistle politics and it’s more and more popular ever since Boris won Brexit with a lie on a bus and an orange skinned businessman starting saying whatever popped into his head or on a Fox News feed.
And they do because they think we’re dumb enough to swallow and yet they think we’ll then respect them enough to give them our vote.

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A basketball hoop that raised the ire of a neighbour in Napier is being moved a few metres to meet council rules, but it's not enough for the neighbour who wants it gone completely.
The trouble began when the Suzie Hiha, a basketball coach, installed a basketball hoop for their boys in the Te Awa subdivision.
Within a few weeks the Hihas were visited by Napier City Council staff who had fielded a complaint by a neighbour and on inspection deemed the hoop to be a structure, meaning it had to be more than 3 metres from the road boundary fence.
Despite feeling the council's request was unreasonable, the family agreed to move it.
Suzie Hiha told Andrew Dickens they’re getting on with their lives, and have extended an olive branch by inviting said neighbour over for a community BBQ.
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Can you hear it. The chatter of real estate.
It’s been a bit quiet all winter, the Auckland market dropped 2.4 per cent,  but now it’s starting to buzz just a bit. There are reports of busy open homes and houses going above CV.  Better weather, low interest rates and a pent up pressure will do that.
New figures for the year to last month show the biggest house price rises were in Central Hawkes bay, up 16.7 per cent and Manawatu/Whanganui up 16.3 per cent. Nationally prices are up 2.72 per cent
The biggest market is in the 750,00 to 1 million dollar band which makes up 44.5 per cent of the national market.
Isn’t interesting that people are coming back to the market just as the worst business confidence figures are out.  But that just shows you the vagaries in emotion.
But what really struck my eye was that Dunedin is the biggest mover in house prices amongst all our cities, up over 12 per cent in the year.
Having just spent 9 days in Central Otago, reading the ODT I can tell you there’s a buzz about the whole region
A week ago the ODT reported that  Dunedin's GDP growth was 2.6% last year, job growth was up 8% and residential building consents up 3.3% as at June 2019, according to Enterprise Dunedin.
There’s been a 4.2% increase in the number of people enrolled with local health providers which says the population is growing.
The story had a picture of the Fleetwood Mac concert at Forsyth Barr and the implication was the so called white elephant stadium was helping paint a picture that Dunedin was booming and becoming more and more attractive.
Well to tell the truth it always has been.  Back in the day when I was in management I was looking at the pay of our sales reps in Otago and seeing that it was exactly the same as the pay we were giving our reps in Auckland.  But of course the cost of living was dramatically lower.  If you’re a teacher or anyone else covered by collective agreements, you get the same pay in Dunedin as any other city so why not stretch your dollar in a funky province.
But as the slow rebalancing of our population spread continues it comes with warnings. Local authorities have to plan ahead to avoid the pitfalls our bigger cities have struck.
I saw that in Queenstown where debate rages over the struggling infrastructure serving the tourists and the residents.  And I saw that in Wanaka where the surging population means a drive to increase tourism which means there’s been aa vicious debate over developing the airport between the newbies who need jobs and the nimbies who think Wanaka can stay the same as it always has.
It’s all proof that even in slow times change is always happening

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Whether it's mince and cheese, smoked fish, butter chicken - Maketu Pies is an iconic brand many Kiwis have grown to know and love.
Nestled in a small town on the Bay of Plenty coast is where the pies are made. Almost everyone who lives there has worked there, or still does.
Now, the Maketu community has been devastated by the news the company has gone into receivership. Reporter Zoe Hunter talks to residents and the receivers.
Bay of Plenty Times reporter Zoe Hunter told Andrew Dickens it's rocked the tight-knit community to its core. 
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