Andrew Dickens Afternoons

Happy New Year.

It's nice to be back after a long summer break during a summer that was both brilliant and awful.

When it was beautiful it was very beautiful and when it was horrible it was appalling.

The East Coast mutilated not just by the elements but by the slash washed down from the hills. This is not the first time this has happened by any stretch and it has to stop.  The industry is well aware of the risk.  Like any industry you need to be able to clean up after you.

And now the new year welcomes a new Prime Minister.

Firstly, the resignation of Jacinda Ardern saw the most incredible outbreak of Jacinda Derangement Syndrome I've ever seen. Fans and acolytes from the left were left wailing and despairing. Truly bereft. Grown men crying. Meanwhile champagne corks were popping in the Koru Lounge, rural pubs filled up and the right wingers felt that all their troubles were over.

All of which was a wild over exaggeration of Jacinda Ardern and her acheivements and abilities.

For the past 5 years I've been saying that Ms Ardern was not as wonderful as her fans believed but nor as dangerous as her enemies said.

But she was becoming a liability to her party. 5 years of mud throwing was sticking. The middle ground of voters were starting to believe the claims that she was a dictator and a control freak. That she was a narcissist ruling an idealogically driven cabal of communists committed to ruining everything about the country right up to changing the name unilaterally.

So with a quick sidestep Cindy was replaced by Chippy.

And that's an important point. An older generation used Cindy to infantilise her which was part of their misogyny. Hipkins used to hate Chippy but is now at home with it so that's an offensive weapon neutralised.

Hipkins is a good call. He's a scrapper. He's got a thicker skin. He's not addicted to always being right. He's prepared to accept and admit he's made a mistake. He's a worker and he seems normal. Like the New Zealanders who vote. Like the New Zealanders who are doing it hard, and they're the people he mentions every time he's near a microphone.

I see today on Twirtter that Matthew Hooten said: ‘In 3 days the Labour party rebranded themselves from Grey Lynn to Glendene and Wadestown to Naenae.’ And that's a good line.

Meanwhile, take note that Chris Hipkins was on ZB this morning unlike the previous Prime Minister. He's prepared to stand his ground.

Whether this is enough for Labour to regain the Treasury benches is a matter we'll have to wait and see. But I think they have more chance under Hipkins than Ardern.

Hopefully it will be a wakeup call for National, who seemed to be sleep walking to the election.

Christopher Luxon makes much of his party having real world experience but he seems to forget how new his troops are, and that Hipkins and Robertson do have real world experience that his Ministers don't. They've been running the shop for the past 5 years and should not be underestimated.

It's making for a great election. I'm looking forward to the Hipkins-Luxon debates and the Robertson-Willis debates. And then we'll see who really has the chops to lead a country.

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So the election result in the Hamilton West by-election is proof that this election year is going to be a thrilling ride.

The electorate was always a soft blue one which swung hard red after the government's handling of Covid. But now it has swung back to the sort of political leaning it had before the pandemic. In fact it may have gone hard blue.

But it needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as only 31 per cent of the electorate voted. The election was also missing a Green candidate, Gourav Sharma also took 1200 votes with him, which was a surprisingly good result in my book.

Crucially National Leader Christopher Luxon also saw that it wasn't as one sided as some made out and warned the party against arrogance and lethargy.

It must be tempting as a National party supporter to hear the constant criticism of this Government and then see the turning of the tide in polls being confirmed by this by election result and think you're home and hosed.

And this Government is constantly criticised. "The most incompetent Government ever. A Government obsessed with control. A Government beholden to Maori interests. A Government with no business experience"

But this is still a Government that won the biggest mandate in MMP history just 3 years ago.  It is a Government with 5 years on the Treasury benches.

And National has a lot of new talent on its books after the evisceration of the last election.  Even its leader is only one term in.

The Prime Minister's statement that the economy will be Labour's main focus this coming year is also a sign that they're beginning to see the writing on the wall.

If they're smart they'll start jettisoning the policies that are starting to alienate voters. The RNZ/TVNZ merger. The hate speech legislation is disappearing.

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So I went to Billy Joel on Saturday.

Great concert. The sound for the top tiers of the stadium was not good, but I blame that on Billy's team who had a rushed set up. The video walls were also very loose but the music was amazing.

The real beef was transport. There were no trains because Kiwirail scheduled maintenance without anyone looking at what was on that weekend. It created a lot of chaos.

Now, I live on the Shore and taking a ferry and a train to Eden Park is normally a delight. So instead we opted to take our electric scooters to the Park taking the NW motorway bike path. Not ideal. Had to stay sober but hate delays and not fond of buses.

So we ferried to downtown which took 15 minutes.

Then rode up Queen Street and on to Eden Park.  That took us 15 minutes.

Coming back it was well lit and we were in a hurry so it took us just 12 minutes. So it was surprisingly efficient and a lot of fun.

But the real take home is that we were the only people on the bike path. Now, that's not the path's or the council's problem. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Aucklanders were offered a choice with the bike path. While rush hour is seeing big numbers no one chose it for the concert.  All the better for me.

It's all about choice.

I have a friend who lives round the corner from me who bikes. But he chose to Uber home from the concert. It cost him $100 and he arrived home an hour after me. My total transport cost was 5$ return on the ferry.

So Michael Wood's transport spend up announced this weekend will be an investment that will never be appreciated unless New Zealanders freely make a choice to take a punt on PT. For that it needs to be safe and efficient.

I have often talked about how I use public transport and bikes and electric scooters and I get swamped by texters telling me how they're not able to use public transport.

They've got kids and sports practices and shopping to cart around. They seem to think I don't have the same pressures.  And of course I have 2 cars and I too use them for shopping and what not.  

But when there is a choice and I weigh up the pros and cons I will take the scooter or the bus or the train or the ferry. But only when it makes sense. Bit by bit it is making sense.

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We are now just moments away from the nationwide vigils and protests against retail crime planned to take place outside dairies and Labour MPs offices.

This comes after the murder of 34 year old Janak Patel outside the Rose Cottage Dairy in Sandringham last Wednesday. In the half week of debate after this crime we have seemingly talked about every aspect of crime without touching the major factor behind the Rose Cottage crime. People assumed it was part of the ram raid fad that has taken hold this spring, that it was theft of cigarettes and vapes that have gained a new transactional value due to their high price due to the taxes imposed upon them. That the offenders were youth who have no fear of consequence from the NZ Police or Justice System. That this crime was spurned on by a government that is portrayed as soft on crime.

As we have found out in the fullness of time, the alleged offender was 34. His accomplice 42. These were not kids.  It was not a ram raid.  They were after the cash register not the ciggies. There has been a consequence as the alleged offenders have been caught and charged. We found out that Rose Cottage has a long history of violent crime that pre dates this government, including being hit 2 months in a row in 2016 and one of those incidents was an armed robbery.

And most tellingly we have discovered the alleged offender was deported from Australia.

The grounds for his deportation from Australia cannot be reported for legal reasons but he joins a long list of deportees returned to New Zealand that have gone on to cause havoc.

The 501 strategy of deporting New Zealanders on bad character assessments has been happening since 2016. In that time 3000 odd holders of New Zealand passports have been sent back to this country. They have boosted gang numbers and brought a new level of organisation and violence with them. They have committed 8000 offences with more than a third of those offences have been violent.

We have been used as a rubbish bin and the Aussies know it which is why Peter Dutton famously called the policy taking the trash out. A new government is now in place and more sympathetic to New Zealand.  Does this mean the mass importation of criminals raised in Australia might stop?

Well, the Australian Home Affairs Minister, Clare O'Neil, featured on Q&A yesterday. She said that while they were looking at the treatment of New Zealanders in Australia, the 501 deportation policy wasn’t going anywhere because it is an important national security policy for their country. So the mass importation of hardened criminals continues.  

In my opinion it is the single biggest driver of a perceived rise in crime and yet we are powerless to resist.

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The debacle that was the awarding of the Football World Cup to Qatar is once again back in focus with the start of the tournament.

But make no mistake there's been controversy ever since the awarding of the tournament back in 2010.

The appointment turned heads.  The smallest country to ever host the cup, the first Arab country. The first country to host the cup that had never qualified for the cup.  A country with little football history.  But a country with a lot of petro dollars

The appointment came as 2 FIFA officials were suspended due to allegations of corruption and money laundering. And the appointment process has been tainted ever since even though there is now concrete allegation as yet.

Immediately there was concern about human rights of the country's construction workers because they don't have any of their own.

Arab countries have long imported their labour from South East Asia, paying them little and taking their passports causing allegations of modern day slavery.

Meanwhile 10 years ago, the Guardian estimated that 4000 construction workers could die because Qatar's lax safety and employment history.  As it turns out they under-estimated the number to die and to date it's closer to 6500.

So all this was predicted but the beginning of the tournament has still been fraught.  Ambassadors for the cup have expressed religous disgust for the LGBTQ community. Journalists have been stopped and threatened. At the 11th hour beer was banned from the stadiums upsetting major sponsor Budweiser. At today’s game the Ecudorean fans started chanting WE WANT BEER. The entire Australian squad has signed an open letter criticising Qatar. Rod Stewart told us he turned down 2 million bucks to croon a tune.  David Beckham has been shamed for taking the oil dollar. Tent camps have sprung up for the fans at 175 pounds a night to sweat it out under canvas in 40 degree heat. Others fly in jets to nearby Oman to find hotel beds in the middle of a climate crisis.

The whole thing is a mess and not an advertisement for the so called "Beautiful Game"

It's caused some people to say teams should boycott the tournament and that fans should not watch the games.  Which is all too little too late.  Where were you when this was all so obvious 12 years ago.

My hope is that Qatar hears the criticism and joins the 21st Century.  Their money has taken their humanity. And FIFA’s. Football is a rich game enjoyed by the poor and all. Remember your roots.

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Friday saw the committee charged with reviewing public submissions on the Three Waters water reform return their recommendations.

Changes to co-governance was not in their list of suggestions

It beggars belief that out of the 88,000 New Zealanders that bothered to make their voices heard that co-governance wasn't high on the list of concerns.

But as I said on the Friday drive show, the lady is not for turning. Co-governance appears to be a hill that this Labour Government is prepared to die on.

But as I also said on Friday, co-governance should be the least of your worries if you're concerned with creeping socialism.

The Three Waters reform suggested is property theft and that's the reason that Phil Goff was against it and had to be bought off.

This Government wants to seize assets paid for by ratepayers, amalgamate them and then borrow off them, so that funding for water stays off the Governments and Councils books. It's blatant nationalisation by a left wing government

It's like needing to do urgent repairs on the house but you have no money.  So you take your neighbour's house and use it as equity to borrow money to fix your place. It's just wrong.

But this is happening because the deferred maintenance and investment has become so huge that we don't have enough money to fix it.

Meanwhile, National MP Simon Watts told TVNZ’s Q+A on Sunday that the party agrees there needs to be reform, but it opposes the Government's current proposals. So Jack Tame pressed Watts pretty hard on what National’s alternative model would be.  Watts said National would reveal its policy closer to the election.

Frankly that's not good enough.  If Labour's dodgy scheme is the only game on the table then it will limp across the line.

And reform is needed.

Today the front page of the Wairarapa Times Age reports that close to half of all drinking water in the region is lost in leaks before it even gets to the tap. Meanwhile the region is booming with new houses.

Imagine if you went to fill up your car and only half of it made it into the tank

You wouldn't tolerate it.

It has to be fixed.

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A couple of weeks ago, I warned you that Winston is back and I was right.

The latest political poll by Horizon Research released today finds New Zealand First with 6.75% support – and in a position to decide which parties would form a Government.

This result would deliver the party 9 seats in a 120-seat parliament.

So, Horizon finds Labour would win 40 seats, the Green party 15. A total of 55.  Not enough to form a Government.

Meanwhile, National would win 37 seats and ACT 17. A total of 54.  Again not enough.

Meaning that NZ First would be the kingmaker once again.  To get back into parliament the party needs either an electoral seat or 5% of the vote and on this poll it does that.

Horizon is a company that involves Graeme Colman, ex of NBR, and other professionals with 30 odd years of experience so I don’t feel it is biased.

So the coalition partners are stable. ACT continues to be strong with 13% of the vote but that seems to be coming from National voters.  

This result should worry both the main parties.  Labour has continued to track down while National has stalled in tracking up. There’s a feeling that both parties are under performing.

Labour’s problems are well documented. Grand promises, poor achievements.

For instance, 100,000 Kiwibuild houses promised 5 years ago.  As of the end of last month we were at 1430 Kiwibuild houses. It’s a better picture for all public social housing with nearly 10,000 built in 5 years.  But remember that 4800 public houses have been sold or demolished in the same time.

And so it goes on.

It should be a free ride for National but it hasn’t been. Perhaps it’s that the electorate can see the emperor has no clothes on.

Tax cuts are not a cost of living policy. They inject more money into those above the median wage and very little to those below. The wealthier continue to fuel the inflating prices while the poor suffer.   It’s economics 101 and the electorate can see it, they saw it in real time in the UK, and so centre right voters continue to leach to ACT.

Of course National voters get conniptions whenever Winston hits kingmaker level because of the perceived treachery of his Labour coalition deal 5 years ago.

But on the evidence of this poll perhaps they need to get over that because it doesn’t look like Winston’s going away.

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As we digest the local government elections, it's important to realise that in the wider world our concerns are small change.

Roadcones, cycleways and speed limits are small fry compared with Ukrainian war, global recessions and rampant inflation worldwide.

And then there's climate change and controls on our emissions.

In the past fortnight, you may not have noticed stories that put climate issues into perspective.

The sabotage of the Russian gas pipe was the single greatest man-made climate disaster in history.

The pure mass of methane that escaped into the atmosphere was incredible. Remember that methane is over 80 times more effective at warming the atmosphere than CO2. Decades of emission controls were written off in just a few days.

Meanwhile, the Government admitted that the drive to replace the entire Government fleet with electric vehicles by 2025 is way off track.

It's looking like 25% of the fleet will be electric, and not by 2025 but more like 2030.

Why?

There are just not enough electric vehicles available. Words are easy but actions are hard.

On Friday, Environment Commissioner Simon Upton told us that to offset all our emissions with trees would require 2 thirds of our country to be pine forests, proving the unsustainability of offsets.

Then there's the fact that came out of an Indian Dairy conference that the Indian cow herd is 10 times bigger than New Zealand's but New Zealand produces more milk than all of India. With a tenth of the cows and a tenth of the emissions. Showing that New Zealand's intensive and efficient farming is climatically better than India's.

This all goes to show that the worldwide battle against emissions is failing.

It shows that we've been lectured by simplistic group think by people who drive their cars to protests to tell us to emit less.

Which is not to say we should give up.

What it says is that we need to praise the small victories and not hysterically demand inefficient broad-stroke virtue-signalling policies.

Because that is the real blah blah blah.

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As this is my first time on ZB since the death of Elizabeth the Second, may I add my gratitude to the many who have praised her exceptional service.

In the days since the expected but still devastating news I have been struck by how history is unfolding before our eyes.

History is made up of milestones and crossroads and we are in the middle of an astounding period of change that we will all point to in the future.

We are at the end of the Second Elizabethan age.  A 70 year period of incredible progress and modernisation, where technology has aided and abetted more individuality and self-determination than ever before.

In coincides with the greatest pandemic for 100 years. The most impactful war since the World conflicts of last century.  Brexit and other economic developments changing world trade patterns. A worldwide inflation outbreak. And a climate that is becoming increasingly volatile.

I feel people in the future will look back to this point as a significant point in this planet's history and here we are right in the middle of it.

So change is in the air.

And one of things that may change is the identity of our head of state.

Already, many are saying why is a 73 year old Brit 12,000 miles away our head of state. And I get that.

But my feeling is if it ain't broke, why fix it.

We have a sophisticated political, constitutional and legal system that has evolved from our links with the Crown.

As Head of State the King has no real power over our direction as a nation.  We are fully self-governing and autonomous.

What he and his system does is provide is an impartial tool for when things go very wrong as they did in Australia in the Gough Whitlam years.

For those unaware of the story the Australian Senate ended out in an impasse that crippled the country constitutionally.  Eventually the Governor General Kerr dissolved the Whitlam government, put opposition leader Malcolm Fraser in charge, and called a new election which Fraser won.

To take such drastic action requires impartiality and a position beyond impunity.  You can't be seen to have a dog in the fight.

The Crown has that position for countries like New Zealand and Australia. Political neutrality.

The Armed Forces are also responsible to them which distances the Forces from accusations of political influence.

And we get all this for next to nothing.

To set up a President or a New Zealand Head of State would take a mountain of money and and bureaucracy.

Add to all that the Maori point of view that the deal over nationhood and governance is with the Crown, then it's removal creates a wealth of issues over the Treaty which could become very fractious and further disadvantage Maori or settlers.

Some say that we need to separate from the Crown to prove our national identity. To that I say our national identity is strong and independent.

And so, if it ain't broke, why fix it?

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Another day and another debate on crime and what to do with it.

There is no doubt the craze for ram raiding amongst the young has contributed to the perception that crime is out of control.

Add to that the growing number of gun crimes particularly amongst the gangs.  It has led to a feeling that our streets are more unsafe than they've ever been before.

It has led to the debate on crime to be all about punishment and all about crimes of violence and trespass.

But the iceberg of crime is far bigger than we mostly hear and like an iceberg the biggest crimes are unreported.

Jarrod Gilbert writes today about the incredible level of white collar crime we have in New Zealand and our laissez faire attitude towards it.

He cites a couple of cases recently. The bloke charged with stealing $ 600,000 by defrauding the Covid wage subsidy.  Another case saw an allegation of an employer pocketing his staff's PAYE payments to the tune of $300,000.

The size of the problem is even more evident when you look at the assets of criminals seized by the Police.

On the list of the top nine people who have had assets seized or frozen only one was a gang member. The other eight were businessmen.

The alleged illegal assets of the gang member made up just 3 per cent of the total assets of those on the list.  The combined assets of the white collar criminals loot was some $322 million.

These are big numbers and big crimes but they're not supported by big sentences.  A fraudster who took investors for $115 million dollars was out of prison on parole after just 6 years. No New Zealand drug lord makes anything near that sort of illegal money.

There's another statistic going about.  For every $1 stolen in common or garden crime, there's $40 stolen by white collar criminals.

Who knows why we are so lenient on the business people defrauding the meek.

The victims are legion.  The investors and super annuitants who lose their nest eggs and their security for the rest of of their lives.  The fraud that dwarfs any beneficiary fraud in this country.  But do the white collar criminals face the daily barrage of disgust that we direct at solo mums and residents of emergency housing.

Maybe we just can't imagine that people who send their kids to nice schools and wear nice suits can be just as bad as any low life mongrel.

If you're a tough on crime supporter you might want to get your dander up about that statistic.  

White collar crime destroys lives in a far more widespread and invidious manner and the sooner we get tougher on it the better.

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