Andrew Dickens Afternoons

So last week, my opening comments centred on how opposition MPs and anti-government commentators have been fear mongering about the state of the economy.

When it was published online it became one of our most commented on pieces of the day with over 500 people expressing what they thought.

Many called me a Labour party apologist. A lot asked why I was praising Labour's management of the economy.

Problem is; I wasn't. 

Nowhere did I say Labour was doing a good job. In fact I'm on record as saying the Government and the Reserve Bank have not handled the reality of the economic situation appropriately.

But, I'm also pointing out how many are exaggerating the possibility of economic gloom and doom for political effect. And the more it's said the more chances it has of becoming real.

Last week a number of economists from home and abroad came out and said they don't believe New Zealand will fall into recession.

But on Friday, retail figures came out with a 2.6 percent fall. The headline was "Fears of a recession as retail spending falls".

A Westpac economist was interviewed. In it he actually said Westpac does not believe a recession is coming.  But the headline in the story did not give that impression did it?

He said that hard goods like furniture and electronics were down but he also pointed out that the comparative figures were swollen by the pandemic, when we didn't travel we just bought a new telly online.

He did warn of a Christmas slowdown citing shipping costs, petrol and interest rates, but one of the biggest factors he highlighted was consumer confidence.

People believing bad times are coming closing their wallets.  Probably because they keep hearing fears of recession headlines.

We are talking ourselves into hard times.

Liam Dann interviewed two visiting Australian economists in the weekend, including the guy who invented the phrase ‘Rockstar Economy’ for New Zealand. He's one who does believe that a recession is likely.  

Both believe that Australia and New Zealand are very well placed to be the fastest recovering economies on Earth inside the next year.  

Our government spending was excessive but not as bad as most. Shipping prices are falling rapidly. We don't have the energy crisis that Europe is about to undergo and our primary exports are still desirable.

That's the story I prefer hearing rather than biased players calling us a basket case to get rid of the incumbent government.

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I only work at Newstalk ZB one day a week so I've been spared having to talk about the Guarav Sharma drama. Or as we now know the Sharma Drama.

But my god it's still going.  

Over the weekend he revealed that Kieran McAnulty called him a terrible MP and that was bullying. Knowing how fruity Kieran's language can be, I think Gourav got off lightly. There's a reason Kieran's a whip. He's good with the old don't argue.

I've realised that the MP for Hamilton West really doesn't like being yelled at. Sharma's maiden speech in February 2021 alleges a paediatric surgeon bullied him while he was at university. It also contained many claims of bullying and racism while he was on the campaign trail. Sharma appears to feel he's been bullied his entire life.

It was the Prime Minister's turn this morning and she once again ruled out an investigation saying that there needs to be a threshold to instigate these things. Otherwise any time anyone called anyone a bully or a racist we'd have investigation after investigation.

We of course can't judge whether that threshold has been reached as all we have so far is the good Doctor's account because the PM is not open and transparent.

Anyway, this "he said she said" thing is terribly frustrating and has kept the issue in the headlines for nearly 2 weeks now.

So some say that the launching of an investigation would at least shelve the conversation.

They point to National hiring a QC to investigate Sam Uffindell which has silenced the debate.

That may be so but what will that investigation prove? Mr Uffindell has already admitted his misdemeanour. And secondly, Mr Luxon has already stated that the result of the investigation will not be publicly released.

If there is an investigation but no public result has there really been a result at all? The debate may have been silenced but not the practices and attitude that sparked the whole thing in the first place.

Just shows that National is just as good, possibly better, at hiding their dirty laundry as Labour.

And that was the way I felt throughout the whole Sharma drama.

None of it surprised me. Politicians have been playing games like this for years.

National was perfectly capable of fudging Official Information requests. Labour appears to have lifted the bar to a new high or should that be low point.

It's all brought our respect for politicians to such a depth.

It's why we have such polarised debate now. It's why our debate has fallen to name calling with words like liars and corruption thrown around willy-nilly.

And it makes me nostalgic for the days when the backbench would wage war on the front bench over policy issues and not office demeanour.

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So let's be honest with each other

Did you, in your darkest heart, secretly hope the All Blacks would lose to prove that Ian Foster was always the wrong man. To get Scott Robertson into the driving seat?

C'mon. Many did. Some even admitted it on social media.

Now if you did, it's quite a dark place really. Actively rooting against your own team, even if you think it would be best for the team eventually.  

Diehard fans would be disgusted. They'd call you a fairweather fan. Not there for the team, only to share in their glory. If you're important enough or your voice is loud enough the players may hear of it and it may crush their spirit which no-one wants.

It's OK to think that others could do a better job but there is no benefit in wishing for failure.

I say this because for some time I've been appalled by the number of people who appear to want New Zealand to fail because they don't like the current Government.

It's almost like they're hoping for a recession just to prove to everybody, or maybe just to themselves, that the Government is an ignorant, economically illiterate mess.

It's important to differentiate between those people analysing the economy as scientifically as they can and others offering opinion for their own benefit.

You get that negative stink off the Opposition right now who would be the only leaders praying for economic Armageddon, because it may see them elected to the benches.

But hoping and praying for economic doom is not a sound idea. Either you inherit the doom and it proves hard to fix, or the doom never really arrives, making you look stupid.

There is no arguing that New Zealand is doing it tough at the moment but that's true of every economy on Earth. Every government running an economy is falling backwards in popularity no matter what side of the political fence they're on.

But awkwardly, New Zealand might not be heading for doom.

The ANZ last week in their quarterly outlook suggested we look like avoiding recession.  

They predict inflation will be at 2.5 percent next year. Goldman Sachs has also come out and said that both Australia and New Zealand will skip recession. Sydney based Capital Economics sees the cycle turning even faster with the OCR going no higher than 3.5 percent and three cuts next year.

Jucy, the motorhome rental firm, has just announced a $40 million credit line to buy more homes due to demand. A mate of mine who runs a tourism firm in his retirement is complaining about working too hard and his forward orders are huge.

If it all adds up to the economy looking better by next year's election, not worse, that could prove problematic for all those predicting doom and gloom.

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So the National Party conference was held over the past weekend in Christchurch.

Things went well until late on Sunday night when planes started being cancelled and MPs and party members went mumbling off into the wet cold winters’ night in search of a bed.

The conference was organised and dull which is just what a party wants. An action filled conference is not the sign of a settled party. But they seem settled on Luxon and Willis and so the game continues with a policy thrown out to keep the party in public discussion.

Maybe I've just been in the game too long, but I could have guessed it would be some sort of benefit policy that says something along the line of kids don't want to work, benefits are a lifestyle and the Ministry of Social Development are useless.

Which is exactly what they said.

I've heard these plans so many times in so many guises. I wonder where this army of competent community advisors are going to come from in a time of skilled staff shortages, and I wonder about the cost of bureaucracy to monitor the spending of taxpayers dollars by NGOs and third party providers.

But that's the National way. In an election year, tax cuts and benefit bashing are their bedrock.

But here's a thing. Is National really promising tax cuts?

ACT finally called their potential coalition partner out this weekend pointing out that National is not planning tax cuts at all but just shifting the brackets.

Their release says tax bracket indexation is just Labour's tax policy adjusted for inflation.

Therefore it’s not a tax cut. It’s tax tinkering that effectively freezes Labour tax policy in time.

Which, of course, it is. Always has been.

Brackets haven't moved under three administrations now, both National and Labour. That's nearly a decade of increased tax revenue year on year. That's nearly a decade of people being placed into higher tax brackets than they can afford.

It really is a rort.

It's not the rich getting richer that bothers me.

It's the policies from both parties that see the poor getting poorer that makes our country impoverished.

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Just at the moment when New Zealand should be getting back to business, the wheels keep falling off for this Government.

On Sunday, we finally opened up completely to the rest of the world.  After two and a half years the so-called hermit kingdom was over. There's even a cruise ship scheduled to arrive in a few weeks

We should be emerging triumphant, but we're not.

Today we're bickering over a government handout that's supposed to help with the cost of living crisis but is proving to be a thorn in the side of the Labour Government.

And it is probably just going to make inflation worse.

Nicola Willis and the National Party are claiming that overseas residents are going to be getting the three instalments of $116.67, even though they don't live here.

Ms Willis claims a man living in Dubai who has not been a NZ resident for 22 years is going to be getting the payments and he's feeling embarrassed.

This is an outrage, if it's true. But you should never totally believe a politician.

So 2.1 million people are in the process of getting a payment or an email from the IRD, who have been charged with running the scheme.

The letter says all sorts of things. Only people who have filed their IR3 returns or taxed at source will get the money. So you need to have earned taxable income from NZ to be eligible and to have paid it.

You have to be a tax resident.

You also have to have a current functioning New Zealand bank account. And all the way through it says YOU MAY BE ELIGIBLE. Which is not to say you will get the money.

There are many reasons why many people will get the money around the world.  It is because they are taxpayers and therefore their taxes are being used to be given back to them.  But I'm picking that Mr Dubai will not get a cent. However, Handout Shame was the headline in the paper.

So this is a badly designed bureaucratic mess that rewarded tax residents, not just physical residents. Add to that the people who most need it are denied it. The poorest beneficiaries and the OAPs who are paid the winter energy payment

But that is not its worst crime. Before we even come to who gets it or not, this pork barrel exercise will barely help ease the cost of living while at the same time add fuel to the inflation fire.

Because, despite what the Prime Minister said on Q and A yesterday, it will be inflationary.

Just for the record. All excessive spending is inflationary. Government spending, corporate spending, excessive profits and even private spending

It all spills cash into an economy, increasing demand at a time when supply is limited.

So the lesson from today is carry on with business but remember all politicians never tell the whole truth.

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Just at the moment when New Zealand should be getting back to business, the wheels keep falling off for this Government.
On Sunday, we finally opened up completely to the rest of the world.  After two and a half years the so-called hermit kingdom was over. There's even a cruise ship scheduled to arrive in a few weeks
We should be emerging triumphant, but we're not.
Today we're bickering over a government handout that's supposed to help with the cost of living crisis but is proving to be a thorn in the side of the Labour Government.
And it is probably just going to make inflation worse.
Nicola Willis and the National Party are claiming that overseas residents are going to be getting the three instalments of $116.67, even though they don't live here.
Ms Willis claims a man living in Dubai who has not been a NZ resident for 22 years is going to be getting the payments and he's feeling embarrassed.
This is an outrage, if it's true. But you should never totally believe a politician.
So 2.1 million people are in the process of getting a payment or an email from the IRD, who have been charged with running the scheme.
The letter says all sorts of things. Only people who have filed their IR3 returns or taxed at source will get the money. So you need to have earned taxable income from NZ to be eligible and to have paid it.
You have to be a tax resident.
You also have to have a current functioning New Zealand bank account. And all the way through it says YOU MAY BE ELIGIBLE. Which is not to say you will get the money.
There are many reasons why many people will get the money around the world.  It is because they are taxpayers and therefore their taxes are being used to be given back to them.  But I'm picking that Mr Dubai will not get a cent. However, Handout Shame was the headline in the paper.
So this is a badly designed bureaucratic mess that rewarded tax residents, not just physical residents. Add to that the people who most need it are denied it. The poorest beneficiaries and the OAPs who are paid the winter energy payment
But that is not its worst crime. Before we even come to who gets it or not, this pork barrel exercise will barely help ease the cost of living while at the same time add fuel to the inflation fire.
Because, despite what the Prime Minister said on Q and A yesterday, it will be inflationary.
Just for the record. All excessive spending is inflationary. Government spending, corporate spending, excessive profits and even private spending
It all spills cash into an economy, increasing demand at a time when supply is limited.
So the lesson from today is carry on with business but remember all politicians never tell the whole truth.

I’ve spent the weekend trying to figure out if the New Zealand Prime Minister has done a good job for the country in her overseas trip or not.
Firstly, the new extended OE deal which sees working holiday visas extended by a year both in the UK and for UK citizens coming here. And allows it for up to 35 year olds
It’s not surprising that the UK was prepared to give a little on this. Their labour shortage is even more acute than ours. Not only have they suffered Covid lockdowns and all the other pandemic related economic pressure, but it all came on top of Brexit.
Brexit saw a lot of cheap European labour excluded from the UK and according to the Office for National Statistics, there were 1.3 million positions waiting to be filled in the first quarter of 2022, nearly 500,000 more than before the pandemic struck.  Of course they want more New Zealanders.
UK citizens have reciprocal rights but will that influx match the outflow of Kiwis.
I doubt if it will.  
Firstly, there are too many people telling our young folk that this country is a dog so that’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Secondly, if you remember, this current Government was elected on a promise to reign in immigration. Remember? Lots of you voted for it. Or did you not read the manifesto?
Then there’s the Free Trade Deal with Europe.
Many complained we folded and maybe we did. Certainly right up to the eve of the signing the Prime Minister was saying we would walk away. But my feeling is that Europe was prepared to play even harder.
After all, we are just 5 million people on the other side of the world opposed to their 500 million.
They have war on their doorstep and 27 nations whose farmers are deeply suspicious of us taking their business and there’s a growing sense that shipping our foods halfway around the globe is bad for the planet.
So I look at the benefits.
It’s better than any Free Trade agreement we’ve had before because we’ve never had one. This has taken 14 years to wrangle and I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t want to get into another decade long negotiation.
It’s not bad for dairy and beef. But it’s pretty great for horticulture, wine, honey and seafood. And how long have we been going on about diversification?
Dairy and beef’s beef with the deal is that it affords them no growth, but with many already saying we’re at peak cow where were they expecting to get the product from? 
Their complaints also centre on a dollar value of current exports, but the deal is in fact based on tonnage. So if you want to make more money, sell stuff for more. Surely this is another factor towards adding more value to our exports to sell them for more.
I see this deal as a chance to reset ourselves. To keep doing what we’re doing but add to our arsenal of products and markets.

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You’ll be pleased to know you’re not about to hear another white middle-aged man pontificate about abortion.  
But I will talk about the effect of the ruling. 
That Christopher Luxon felt compelled to make a public statement on the future of this country’s laws based on a decision in another sovereignty with a completely different system shows the emotion and polarity behind the issue. 
Now, the decision is not a surprise.  Republicans have been working towards this outcome for years and when it comes to Supreme Court judges, we’re talking very long games. 
The Democrats also play the game which is why there was so much pressure on Ruth Bader Ginsburg to resign during Obama’s tenure.  She didn’t, but then died under Trump meaning he had the card to play in the game of “stack the Supreme Court”. 
As an outsider I am always amazed at the political influence in choosing the Supreme Court in the United States.  It flies in the face of the traditional pillars of democracy and society. 
The four pillars are the judiciary, executive, legislative, and media.  To work properly and to hold each other to account, they need to operate separately.  But in allowing the legislative and executive wings to choose the judiciary that kind of all goes out the window, don’t you think? 
Now one of the reasons it resonates in this country is because at the centre of the issue is a state’s power over an individual’s body. 
This has been echoed here recently in our vaccination mandates. 
Over the weekend I hosted an unvaccinated friend of my son’s and eventually the conversation turned to his motives and concerns. It was emotional and compelling and I was left feeling that he feels a second-class citizen in this country 
He asked me, “How can a government tell us we have to have something injected into our bodies”. 
It’s a valid question. My way of reasoning was it was a short term measure to get vax rates up. 
The mandate was necessary to get to a minimum level of immune resilience to the virus. That resilience was needed to minimise transmission times and maximimise survival rates 
To motivate all without a deep-rooted reservation against vaccination.. 
I thought it was going to be a temporary measure. 
Once we reached over 90 per cent vaccination rates I thought that it was mission accomplished and the mandates could ease, which mostly they have. 
Except for health workers. A sector suffering huge work force shortages. 
I find it hard to reconcile the fact that all New Zealanders can enter the country unvaccinated but an unvaccinated doctor can’t work. 
Some may argue it’s the Government’s desire for control. I don’t. 
They’re not that organised. It’s a job that’s fallen through the crack and needs to be addressed today. 
Lives and livelihoods were taken and they need to be returned right now.

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We live in a world beset by problems right now.
Having spent 2 years being ravaged by a pandemic we have entered an age of inflation and economic uncertainty.
The world is full of bear markets crashing around us with the exception of crude oil prices that are up 6 per cent in the past month fuelling on more inflation. It’s a vicious cycle.
And one of the most immediate crises is in the health sector.
Tomorrow is the Winter solstice and the official start of deepest winter.
For a long time now this has meant a crunch time for our health system. Respiratory illnesses like flu and RSV overwhelm our hospitals. But now we have the victims of Covid added into the mix.
For weeks now we’ve had health workers saying it’s an emergency, that we’re at breaking point. We’re understaffed, under resourced, underfunded and that people will die because of it.
The Health Minister maintains his line to maintain public confidence that we are coping. But the stories of brain bleed victims uncared for 8 hours who then die puts lie to that.
Meanwhile, Andrew Little continues to blame National for the sorry state of the health system. On Friday his office released a statement that said “The health system has been under serious pressure from years of neglect and underinvestment.”
National’s Shane Reti responded to that saying that he will own all the things that his party did right and did wrong over the 9 years they were in power. But then he turned it back on Andrew Little saying that he’s had 5 years to ease the problems and now it’s his problem to own.
As I see it, both parties and all New Zealanders need to own the problem and drive the answer because this is not a quick fix.
To build an ICU bed you need to find 18 new staff to operate it.
To improve primary care we need to find thousands of doctors.
To have safe hospitals a third of them need to be ripped down and built again.
This all takes time.
Health spending and plans have a 5 to 10 year time lag to them. It takes that long from budgeting some money to the money having a real effect.
It takes 5 years to train a fully qualified nurse and 8 years to train a junior doctor and that’s nowhere near creating specialists.
This crisis was 30 years in the making.
Labour is now embarking on a half billion dollar restructure of the health system that National won’t support.
This is not good.
Health is too important to be politicised this way. We need a plan that has consensus and a timeline that exceeds political terms.
The sooner we get all Health planning and funding out of the hands of politicians the better.

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Has everyone else been as blown away as I have about the vigour and speed with which China has decided to woo our Pacific neighbours? 
And is everyone else as worried as I am about our preparations for a new geo politics in our backyard? 
The Chinese Foreign Minister is in the middle of a whistle-stop tour of 8 Pacific nations. He carries with him millions and millions of dollars in aid and development funds and in return, all he wants is Chinese access and influence. 
Over the weekend he was in Samoa. They signed up immediately. They spoke about climate change, the pandemic and peace and security. Things that Australia, New Zealand and the United States have consistently failed to do. The things the Pacific are really worried about. 
We have taken the Pacific for granted and paid them lip service and now we have competition for our influence. 
This is prompting a wave of concern about what we can do. Which is all a little too little and too late 
Yesterday on Q&A, one expert said it's time to invest more in defence and I totally agree. 
Back in the 90s when I first appeared on talk radio one of my first opinion pieces asked when we were going to fund our defence forces adequately. 
A few people called me a warmonger. But remember this is defence. Not offence. We're sparsely populated islands far from any allies. It is prudent to be defensive. And we have a massive exclusive economic zone that needs monitoring. 
There's a basic rule of thumb that nations should spend 2 per cent of their GDP of defence.  We've never come near to that in modern times. 
Currently, we spend 0.7 per cent. That's actually bordering on negligence. What makes it worse is that underfunding has gone on year after year after year. And with every year of underfunding, we slip further and further behind. 
Defence is an expensive and slow process. Our frigate Te Mana has been in Canada for the past 3 years undergoing an upgrade which has been beset by cock ups which have blown out the cost to between 6–700 million dollars. 
Because we have so little kit the absence of this ship has left us virtually defenceless. 
I see National has promised to lift defence spending to 2% of GDP but how that marries with their quest to cut government spending and taxes, I'll never know. 
What I do know is that now is not the time to stop investing in some basics. 
For a couple of generations, we have failed to invest in our security, our policing, our health system and our education.  We are seeing all those chickens come home to roost. It's time to grow up.

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