In this conversation, Stephan Livera and Marty Kendall explore the dynamics of Bitcoin treasury companies, focusing on power laws, market dynamics, and investment strategies. They discuss the sustainability of mNAV greater than one, the lifecycle of these companies, and the importance of community engagement. The conversation emphasizes the need for risk management and the potential for significant opportunities in the Bitcoin equity space.

Takeaways

🔸Marty Kendall discusses the intersection of Bitcoin and treasury companies.

🔸Power laws can help predict Bitcoin's growth trajectory.

🔸The ballistic acceleration model offers insights into Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's performance.

🔸Market dynamics influence the premium of mNAV over one.

🔸Sustainability of mNAV greater than one is a key concern for investors.

🔸Yield and market sentiment play crucial roles in investment decisions.

🔸The lifecycle of Bitcoin treasury companies affects their long-term viability.

🔸Investment strategies should consider risk management and market conditions.

🔸Operational businesses may provide stability compared to pure Bitcoin plays.

🔸Community engagement can significantly impact a company's market perception.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:33) - The correlation between Power Laws & Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTC)

(08:19) - How do you evaluate mNAV premium?; Sustainability of mNAV > 1 

(16:48) - What are the indicators of a successful Bitcoin Treasury Company?; Market dynamics 

(19:00) - Sponsors

(26:59) - The risks of mNAV erosion

(35:00) - Lifecycle of Bitcoin Treasury Companies; Construction of a BTCTC portfolio

(41:26) - Days to Cover mNAV explained

(45:31) - The role of Bitcoin in banks of the future; survival of the fittest in BTCTCs

(48:31) - Sponsors

(50:18) - Operational Business vs. Bitcoin Accumulation; Long-term BTCTC strategies

(59:29) - When will $MSTR moon?; Market perception & Bitcoin value

(1:01:52) - Self custody Bitcoin vs BTCTCs

(1:06:39) - Evaluating risks and opportunities in Bitcoin investments

Links: 

• https://x.com/martykendall2

• https://microstrategist.com/

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• Lana by Galoy

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack