The market is splitting in two. Buyers who stay selective will do better.

Pete Wargent and Chris Bates break down why inflation risks are rising again after renewed global instability, how that’s feeding into rate expectations and buyer sentiment, and why construction is still failing to deliver enough supply. They also unpack the latest noise around negative gearing and capital gains tax, and what reforms might change — versus what just adds uncertainty — as the market shifts into a clear two speed cycle.

Together, they discuss:

Inflation risks returning as global instability pushes up energy costs, with fuel jumping quickly in parts of Australia 

Why the RBA may prefer waiting for quarterly data

Evidence of a two speed housing market

The on the ground reality for first home buyers at the lower end, including competition for scarce houses and buyers being pushed toward poorer assets amid FOMO 

Negative gearing and CGT reform chatter ahead of the budget

The core supply problem getting worse: building approvals down 

Why approvals are still not enough for the national target

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