Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the themes in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward.

 

This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4494781-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Late-week official resistance can slow but should not upend the uptrend in USD/CNY. The euro has been resilient as real yields moved up the US, but is still overshooting and will not be immune if CNH weakness extends. USD/JPY likely to test 150 before MoF intervention.

Speakers: 

Meera Chandan

Arindam Sandilya

Katsuhiro Oshima

This podcast was recorded on 18 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4491146-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.

SPEAKERS:

Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy

Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4487168-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Ladislav Jankovic and Antonin Delair discuss the main themes in FX markets with focus on macro, systematic and derivatives sleeves.

 

This podcast was recorded on 11 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4486479-0

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4481894-0

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

On July 20, JP Morgan Commodities team recommended to raise allocation to commodities. Since then, commodities rallied but the move was driven by energy, while base metals moved sideways. BCOM Energy subindex surged 24% since mid-June and balances are pointing towards more upside in the near term. We see potential for US Henry Hub gas price to reach $3.30/MMBtu if a severe Australian LNG outage were to manifest alongside continued warmer weather forecast skew. We see Brent oil price hitting $90, or even above by September. But as the market transitions from a 3Q23 inventory draw into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back towards mid $80s.

 

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research

 

This podcast was recorded on Aug. 11, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484961-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss last week’s developments in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward.

Speakers:Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4479817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss US Treasury funding needs, the Fitch downgrade for the US and implications for rates and FX markets.

This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

 

This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478415-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The FY23 deficit is tracking about $1.5 trillion, but only thanks to the odd accounting of student debt forgiveness. Excluding student debt, the deficit would be closer to $1.8tn, and almost $1tn larger than in FY22. This widening should partly reverse as we move into FY24, when we project a deficit around $1.6tn. This year’s “stealth stimulus” may help explain the economy’s resilience to rapid interest rate hikes.

 

SpeakersMichael Feroli, Chief US EconomistPhoebe White , Fixed Income Strategy Afonso Borges , Fixed Income Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on Aug. 1, 2023.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4471329-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss the FX implications for an event-laden week. US exceptionalism, European growth weakness and an incredibly slow BoJ pivot are the main themes.

Speakers:Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4470939-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.