Three years after Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of a sovereign state, what has he gained? The answer seems to be a path to normalisation with the United States and negotiations on Ukraine – without the Ukrainians or the Europeans. Instead, Donald Trump is sending his secretary of state and national security advisor to Saudi Arabia, along with fellow New York real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, who has swiftly pivoted into a Middle East envoy role. 

Meanwhile, Brussels is a long way from Riyadh. So why is retired General Keith Kellogg – touted as Trump's steady hand on Ukraine – meeting with EU leaders instead of leading the negotiations? We examine what lies at the heart of this potential deal with Putin. We also assess how far European powers progressed at Monday's emergency summit in Paris, hastily convened after US Vice President JD Vance delivered a stark warning to allies at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. How much leverage do Europe and the Ukrainians have when the continent's main security guarantor seems more inclined to talk to Moscow?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Ilayda Habip.