Talking Europe sits down with France's top diplomat in Warsaw, just as Poland takes up the rotating presidency of the EU in turbulent geopolitical times. Étienne de Poncins was previously French ambassador to Ukraine and got out of Kyiv just in time when it was encircled by the Russian army in 2022. He wrote about that experience in his book "Au Cœur de la Guerre" – "At the Heart of the War". We talk about Poland’s position in the EU, and especially its defence commitments, as well as the EU’s approach to Ukraine and to the incoming US presidency of Donald Trump.

De Poncins says it is "good news for Europe" that Poland is taking over the rotating presidency of the EU, because it is going to be "a pro-European presidency, held by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. To be perfectly frank, we will not regret the Hungarian presidency of the EU, because Hungary was playing its own game and not a collective game, as in football. We expect Poland to aggregate all the European positions and to defend a united EU position. And the moment is also important because this is the real start of the new Commission of Mrs. von der Leyen, which will send its first strong messages on its programme. So this first semester of 2025 is clearly a key period."

As Europe braces for the unpredictability of a new Trump presidency in the US, de Poncins praises Poland's goal of spending 4.7 percent of GDP on its defence capabilities in 2025. "Poland is a benchmark for Europe. Their ambition is clear. They want to double their military forces. There are a lot of challenges, because when you buy a lot of military equipment, you then need to do the training, the maintenance and so on. But the road is clear and the objective is firm. And we are very impressed by the determination of the Polish government to rearm and to collectively reinforce the defence of Europe."

Asked whether the EU as a whole is being pro-active enough on the incoming Trump presidency, de Poncins says "there are different meetings about how to handle [US President-Elect Donald] Trump, and about how to discuss with him. There will be a visit to Washington of the French, German and Polish foreign ministers very soon, and we will continue to see a revival of this 'Weimar Triangle'. The important point, I think, is to be coordinated among us Europeans".

De Poncins pushes back on the idea that, by saying that Kyiv needs to hold "realistic" discussions on territorial issues, French President Emmanuel Macron is nudging Ukraine to make territorial concessions. "We have always said that it is for Ukrainians themselves to decide when and on what conditions they will enter into negotiations with Russia," de Poncins says. "Everything will be on the table at that point. So President Macron has not said anything very new from my perspective."

We also touch on hybrid information wars in Europe and de Poncins points out that he himself has been a target of disinformation. "When I was ambassador to Kyiv I suffered an attack on social networks. There was a fake story saying that I had fled my posting and abandoned my position, which was of course not true. This was done on purpose by some services, I would say." He goes on to affirm that, in a year of crucial elections across the EU, this issue "is clearly a concern for everyone now. For several years we have been facing a very difficult hybrid war in all aspects and all domains, including in the domain of information."

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Isabelle Romero and Perrine Desplats

2025 looks like a year full of dangers for the European Union. Even before US President-elect Donald Trump returns to office, his unpredictability is on full display as he tells NATO ally Denmark that he needs Greenland for US national security purposes – prompting a strong rebuke from France, which says the EU will not tolerate threats to its borders. And this is before Trump even gets going on the well-known difficult issues such as trade tariffs, Ukraine and NATO.

Yet uncertainty also looms over the domestic politics of EU member states, with crucial elections this year in Germany, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and perhaps in France, too, if the political deadlock there continues.

So will this be a make-or-break year for Europe? We put the question to our guests.

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats and Agnès Le Cossec

Preparing to support Ukraine 'in all scenarios' – that’s how the head of the EU Council summarized the key takeaway from the final European summit of the year, ahead of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. We delve into the EU’s preparedness with Belgian Foreign Minister Bernard Quintin, who addresses the complex issue of possible European troop deployments in Ukraine, a topic discussed at the summit. Quintin also shares his hopes for a more democratic Syria after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster and outlines how the EU should support the country’s transition.

Quintin appears to downplay concerns that incoming US President Donald Trump might do a deal over the heads of Ukrainians and EU leaders.

"The place of Europe is very strong. We have been supporting Ukraine since day one, and we will continue to do so," Quintin says. "We have the experience of the first Trump administration. We will hear what the US president has to say. It's really important that we now work, with determination, on our open strategic autonomy."

Asked about the possibility of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine – an issue that was raised at the December EU summit – Quintin says: "In order to send peacekeeping troops, you need peace. That's the first step that should be reached. It's important to have the idea on the table, but the first thing is to support Ukraine in its fight, to make sure that the day Ukraine enters negotiations – if it wants to do that – it is in a strong negotiating position."

Turning to Syria, we ask if the EU should impose actual pre-conditions on the new authorities in Damascus for full normalisation. "There is a new hope for the Syrian population and we have to support that," Quintin answers. He says he would not call the EU's demands – protection of human rights and minorities, for example – preconditions, but rather "the right framework for working with the new authorities, for working towards a peaceful solution and the reconstruction of Syria". Quintin continues: "What we hear from the new authorities is quite good, if I may say, but we have to see what they do. Words are important, but deeds are even more important."

Belgium has recently suspended the examination of new files made by Syrian asylum seekers, because "the situation on the ground has changed dramatically", Quintin asserts. But he assures Talking Europe that his country would only return Syrians to Syria in full compliance with international norms: "Returns have to be voluntary. They have to be safe. And they have to be done with dignity. We will see how the situation evolves. But Belgium is one of the biggest supporters of international humanitarian law and of all the Conventions. So we will definitely respect not only the spirit but also the letter of the treaties."

Asked about the devastating cyclone in the French overseas department of Mayotte, Quintin says: "We express our deep sympathies to the French people and the people who are suffering in Mayotte. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism (EUCPM) is an effective system and we, in Belgium, are totally ready to support France through the Mechanism. We have material that could be sent to Mayotte to help people there. So yes, European solidarity is working. It is not only a word. It is also deeds."

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Agnès Le Cossec, Perrine Desplats and Oihana Almandoz

Things may look bleak for the European Union in the depths of winter, with challenges across the board: the threat of a trade war with the US, weakened political figures in Germany and France, European farmers menacing protests about the Mercosur deal, an uncertain outcome for the conflict in Ukraine, plus budgets being tightened for households and governments across the bloc. But despite or perhaps because of those threats, Europeans' sentiment is on the up: 51 percent of Europeans tend to trust the EU, the highest level since 2007; while 44 percent have a positive image of the bloc, a figure that's stayed more or less constant since 2010. Those figures are according to a recent Eurobarometer poll.

In this debate, we talk about what the European Union gets right, and how it impacts for the better the lives of its citizens. From studying abroad and broadening our horizons, to guaranteeing consumers are protected when it comes to things like travel and food, as well as ensuring EU citizens' data is protected on the World Wide Web, we discuss some of the bloc's successes. Can the EU capitalise on that success? What can it do better? We put those questions to our guests.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

Talking Europe meets one of Spain’s most seasoned diplomats, and a close confidant of the Spanish prime minister. José Manuel Albares is Spain’s foreign minister, and a former ambassador to France. We discuss the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, war in the Middle East, Ukraine, the Mercosur free trade agreement – which Spain strongly champions – and migration. 

Asked about the toppling of the Assad regime, Albares says: “It's always good news when dictatorships fall, but we have to be very cautious about what is next. When a dictatorship falls, that doesn't mean that democracy appears the next day. For me, there are three things that are essential. First, this military movement must be transformed into a political movement as soon as possible. We don't want the military movement deciding the future of Syria. The second thing is that Syrian society is a pluralistic society, so the future Syria must include everyone, whatever their religion or wherever they come from. And the third thing is that we must preserve the territorial integrity of Syria. We don't want parts of Syria to be in the hands of different groups. Syria must be a source of stability, and not adding more instability to a Middle East that already has too much of that.” 

We continued discussing the Middle East, and Spain’s recognition of the state of Palestine. 

“We are already 145 countries, the majority of the international community, that have recognised the state of Palestine, as well as 11 European Union countries,” Albares says. “I think this is a matter of justice for the Palestinian people. I don't see why Palestinians must be condemned to be eternally a refugee people. The two-state solution also takes into consideration the legitimate security concerns of the Israeli people. We know that is the only solution that will bring peace, stability and prosperity definitively to the Middle East. That's why we are calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the implementation of the two-state solution.” 

On Donald Trump’s return to power and what that might mean for Ukraine, Albares says, “only the Ukrainian government is entitled to talk on behalf of Ukraine and what they want to do, or not to do, in the future. So nothing should be done about Ukraine without Ukraine. I would also say: nothing about Ukraine without the European Union, because the European Union has been helping Ukraine since the very beginning. And we are going to do that for as long as it takes. So, for all those reasons, we must back President Zelensky’s peace plan.” 

Asked about the Mercosur (EU-Latin America) free trade agreement, which is fiercely opposed by France in its current form, Albares opines that “it would be a very serious mistake” not to move forward with the deal. “Firstly, because Mercosur is ready to move ahead, and the majority of European Union countries is in favour. This is going to create the largest market in the world, of 700 million people, with benefits for the European economy. In this time of war in Ukraine and war in the Middle East, we in Europe really need partners. This is not only a trade deal for Latin America; it's also a strong signal of the political engagement that the Europeans will want to have with Latin America.” 

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Oihana Almandoz 

Today, the EU’s Green Deal faces pressure from an atmosphere of economic crisis: car factories in Germany are set to close, farmers protesting about excessive environmental protection measures, soaring energy bills for households. But as the recent floods in Spain have shown, the issue of the climate crisis remains unavoidable for Europe’s leaders. Ursula von der Leyen herself promised in 2019 that the EU would be carbon neutral by 2050. In 2024, the Commission president says the next step of the Green Deal is the Clean Industrial Deal or how the EU can better support its industry and European competitiveness, all while striving for those environmental goals. The Political landscape of 2024 is very different to that of 2019 with populist parties seizing seats in the European parliament, often at the expense of Green MEPs.     

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

Georgia is sinking deeper into crisis, as a pro-European protest movement is met with a severe police crackdown that has been condemned by EU officials. Our guest has been out in the streets every night, demonstrating against the ruling party’s decision to pause Georgia’s EU membership process, and in protest at the recent parliamentary election which the pro-European camp is convinced was rigged – a view backed up by the EU parliament and by the joint observation mission of several western organisations. Giorgi Baramidze is a former state minister for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic Integration, and a former deputy prime minister of Georgia.

“Georgians are really very angry,” Baramidze says. “According to all the opinion polls, 80 percent of our citizens strongly support EU and NATO integration. So these days were very turbulent because the ruling party completely rigged the elections in October – which was recognised by a recent European parliament resolution – and then they declared that they are going to stop Georgia’s EU membership process. That, by the way, is against Georgia’s constitution. Article 78 says that every Georgian authority and institution must do its utmost to achieve Georgia’s EU and NATO membership. So they went against the constitution.”   

Asked about the tactics used by the police and the interior ministry, Baramidze responds, “they are very brutal. They are chasing people, even to private homes, to offices, to pharmacies, and far away from the parliament building when the protests are happening. They are beating them brutally, and with absolutely no consequences. We seriously suspect that there are not only policemen but also organised mob groups mobilised by the government. Because, if you see the pictures, they don't have identification numbers. They are absolutely in black, covering their faces, and nobody knows who they are. And if they commit any crime or violence, nobody can investigate this.” 

Baramidze contends that many members of the security forces “have been brainwashed. They say, ‘we don't want to Georgia become a gay country’, and things like that. The reality is that we want to be a part of Europe. This is a historic dream of the Georgian people. But Putin obviously doesn't want this. He doesn't want Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine to be free, to be part of the democratic club, to be part of civilised society. He doesn’t want the countries around Russia to be successful, happy and prosperous.” 

The Baltic members of the EU have announced sanctions on Georgian officials deemed to be responsible for the crackdown, while Ukraine has announced measures not just against the Georgian prime minister but also against the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, often called the ‘éminence grise’ of Georgian politics. Will any of this make a difference? 

“It will make a difference, absolutely,” Baramidze responds.  Because these people are lying to their subordinates that nothing will happen. That the Europeans will just make some noise, and then everything will be okay – you can still go with your families to Milan, to Paris for shopping. Your kids still can still study abroad in the United States, in European countries. But this time, I'm absolutely confident that anyone who is at the top of this pro-Russian criminal organisation named Georgian Dream, as well as their subordinates, will be severely sanctioned and punished.” 

We put it to Baramidze that Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze considers the protest movement an attempt at a coup d’état, with demonstrators seeking another Maidan-style regime change. Is that in fact the goal of the protesters? Or is their goal simply to re-run the parliamentary election? 

“We don't need any violence,” he replies. “Our people's goal [is] to get rid of this criminal gang from the government. Therefore, we call for free and fair elections, as reflected in the European parliament’s resolution. We need free and fair elections organised and monitored by the European Union, not by the pocket Central Electoral Committee. And of course we want a civilised, peaceful change of government. In 2012, President Saakashvili recognised defeat and handed over power peacefully to Georgian Dream. That's how it happens in normal European countries. That's how it happened in Georgia as well.” 

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Isabelle Romero and Perrine Desplats 

The war in Ukraine has entered what some officials say could be its most dangerous phase, with Kyiv now using Western-supplied missiles to strike deeper inside Russia, and Russia reported to be using North Korean troops in Ukraine. There is even talk in some Western capitals of sending troops to Ukraine – something that has been floated in the past by French president Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile there is nervousness in Europe about what the incoming US president’s peace plan for Ukraine might entail – Donald Trump keeping his cards close to his chest. So what diplomatic and military role should the EU be playing?

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

Social media platforms play an increasingly important role in election campaigns, as the first round of the Romanian presidential election – in which a NATO-sceptic populist came out on top – amply demonstrates. Our guest is Mariya Gabriel, a former EU Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Innovation, who is well placed to discuss social media and disinformation, particularly in the context of southeastern Europe. We also talk to her about the new EU Commission's announcement of a "Competitiveness Compass" initiative, and the rolling political crisis in Gabriel's home country, Bulgaria.

Asked about Calin Georgescu's win in the first round of the presidential election in Romania, Gabriel says: "Romania is an important state for the European Union and for NATO. But we really need to draw some lessons from the role of social media [in the election]." She notes: "There are questions about the role of TikTok. Speaking as former EU Commissioner on Digital Economy, it is important not to lose digital platforms as channels for citizens to engage with political debate. But we have to make sure that the platforms respect standards, and transparency of the algorithms.”

"Populist demagogues are using fear and disappointment to increase their support," Gabriel goes on. "We have to pay attention to this, because in Bulgaria and in Romania, we have people that are instrumentalising these fields. That's why the other parties that are pro-European, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, they have to innovate in their narratives, in their actions, to engage with citizens based on facts and very clear positions. This is an everyday struggle, and we can’t ignore these new realities."

We also discuss the geopolitical direction of the new EU Commission, which was approved by the European Parliament in a vote on November 27. Is President Ursula von der Leyen's "Competitiveness Compass" really a new initiative, or simply a re-packaging of existing commitments?

"What I see is that all the efforts that we made during the last five years are now bearing fruit. There is more and more awareness of how important it is to tackle the innovation gap," Gabriel responds. "Let's not forget that Europe in the 1990s was 25 percent of the global economy, and now it’s 16 percent. I very much welcome the first announced initiative by the European Commission. Of course I would like to now see concrete proposals. What about the budget? What about the cooperation between universities and businesses? What about access to data or skills for small productivity firms, and cooperation with the big corporations? What about the mobility of researchers, and attracting talent in Europe? We need to think bigger. And we need much more rapid action."

In October, Bulgarians were asked to vote for the seventh time in four years because of the failure of the country's political parties to agree on forming a coalition government. We put it to Gabriel that public trust in politics must be rock bottom.

"My message is very clear. Bulgaria does not have time to lose, so it's up to all the politicians to be responsible and to stop wasting time," she answers.

"Unfortunately, at this stage, I don't see real progress. And this is something that makes me fear. What about other political forces, like what happened in Romania, that will use this vacuum to play their games? Because let's not forget, Bulgaria is strategically important for the European Union. We are at the crossroads of so many crucial topics, from energy to food and protection of borders. So I think that, more than ever, we need politicians that take their responsibility [seriously] and work for the benefit of our citizens."

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Oihana Almandoz and Perrine Desplats

A recent shootout over drug trafficking in France that degenerated into a massive fight between rival gangs, involving hundreds of people, prompted authorities to compare the French state to Mexico – the land of drug cartels. For Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, France's drug problem is "at a tipping point". But this is not just happening in France. The EU's law enforcement agency Europol says that several member states are experiencing unprecedented levels of drug-related violence. 

So is the EU losing its grip on organised crime? And what could the joint solutions be? We discuss this with two MEPs who are both on the European Parliament's Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown